29 April 2016
4QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Telecom
BSE SENSEX
25,607
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD
b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val INR m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,850
BHARTI IN
3,997.4
1,453/21.4
452/282
0/8/0
1630
33.3
Bharti Airtel
CMP: INR364
TP: INR420 (+15%)
Buy
EBITDA beats estimate; performance improves across all verticals
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
965 1,061 1,159
EBITDA
341.9 366.1 403.7
Net Profit
42.7
49.7 67.6
EPS (INR)
10.7
12.4 16.9
EPS Gr. (%)
-17.6
16.5 36.0
BV/Sh (INR) 177.2 182.3 196.1
RoE (%)
6.2
6.9
8.9
RoCE (%)
6.1
5.2
6.3
Div. Payout% 15.3
13.3 12.2
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Div. Yield (%)
34.0
2.1
7.0
0.5
29.2
2.0
6.7
0.5
21.5
1.9
5.7
0.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
4QFY16 EBITDA above estimate:
BHARTI’s 4QFY16 consolidated EBITDA grew 14%
YoY and 8% QoQ to INR91.88b (7% higher than our estimate of INR85.3b), as
profitability improved across verticals. EBITDA for India mobile and Africa
surpassed estimates by 5.5%/12%, respectively and accounted for ~70% of the
overall EBITDA beat. Consolidated revenue grew 8.4% YoY and 3.7% QoQ to INR
249.59b (in line with our estimate of INR247.96b). PAT increased by 2.8% YoY and
15.5% QoQ to INR12.9b (30% higher than our estimate of INR9.86b). Reported
PAT included an exceptional loss of INR3b.
India mobile – Voice traffic growth led by step up in subscriber acquisitions:
India
mobile revenue grew 9% YoY and 5% QoQ to INR146.53b (2% higher than our
estimate of INR144.07b), led by 6% QoQ voice traffic growth. Mobile EBITDA grew
13% YoY and 8% QoQ to INR58.47b (5.5% higher than our estimate of INR55.44b).
Mobile traffic grew ~11% YoY and 6% QoQ, as BHARTI stepped up subscriber
acquisitions in 4QFY16. The company added 16m subscribers in 2HFY16 (7.9m
subscribers in 4Q FY16). Voice RPM declined by 1.5% QoQ and data revenue grew
by 5% QoQ (23.3% contribution; 10% traffic growth).
Africa EBITDA ahead of estimate:
Africa EBIDTA grew by 4% QoQ to USD210m (vs.
our estimate of USD186m). Revenue remained flat QoQ at USD953m. The
revenue-weighted currency depreciation versus the USD in Africa over the last
year has been ~6%
Net debt up QoQ; INR14.3b buy-back approved:
Net debt increased QoQ by
~INR51b to INR839b, led primarily by spectrum-related liabilities. Spectrum
liability of ~USD600m was recognized in 4QFY16 and ~USD160m is yet to be
recognized. Capex increased by ~10% QoQ to ~INR60.6b. (24% capex/sales). The
company has guided for a capex of ~USD3b. We have modeled for a capex of
INR200-220b for FY16-18, largely for building data networks. BHARTI approved
buy-back of INR14.3b and recommended final dividend of INR1.4/sh.
Maintaining EBITDA estimate:
We are largely maintaining our EBITDA estimate,
but are raising our PAT estimate by 5%/1% for FY17/FY18 to factor in the
marginally higher Mobile earnings. We estimate a CAGR of 9% in consolidated
EBITDA over FY16-18E. BHARTI trades at prop. EV/EBITDA of 6.7x/5.7x
FY17E/FY18E. Maintain
Buy
with a revised target price of INR420 (INR 380 earlier),
based on 5.5x FY18 EV/EBITDA for India (ex towers), 4x EV/EBITDA for Africa, and
15% discount vs. TP for BhartiInfratel.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jay Gandhi
(jay.gandhi@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3089 6693