1 JULY 2016
SECTOR: CHEMICALS
Aarti Industries Limited
BSE SENSEX
27,144.91
S&P CNX
8,328.35
(INR CRORES)
CMP: INR526 TP: INR630 (+20%)
Buy
Y/E MARCH
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
NP (Adj.)
EPS (Adj.)
EPS Growth
BV/share
Core ROE (%)
Core ROCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
FY16
2,729
572
21.0%
257
29.0
25%
134
24
18
18.1
4.0
FY17E
3,150
670
21.3%
317
35.8
23%
162
26
18
14.7
3.3
FY18E
3,622
758
20.9%
378
42.7
19%
197
25
19
12.3
2.7
KEY FINANCIALS
Diluted Shares (cr)
Market Cap. (Rs cr)
Market Cap. (US$ m)
Past 3 yrs Sales Growth (%)
Past 3 yrs NP Growth (%)
8.3
4,416
651.90
9%
25%
STOCK DATA
52-W High/Low Range (INR)
Major Shareholders (as of 31st March 2016)
Promoter
Institutions
Public & Others
Average Daily Turnover(6 months)
Volume
Value (Rs cr)
1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%)
1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%)
587/331
54.8
15.7
29.5
36941
1.85
1/-1/60
2/1/56
We recommend to BUY Aarti Industries for a target of INR
630- valuing the company on SOTP basis.
Geared for growth with global leadership in Speciality
Chemicals:
AIL has a strong understanding of chlorine derivative
chemistry and has the largest nitro-chlorobenzene capacity in India at
60,000 tonnes per annum. Exports account for 51% of speciality
chemicals division. It offers over 100+ products to MNCs
globally(globally ranks 1st -5th for most of its key products) having
end-user applications in polymers, additives, pigments, paints, dyes,
agro chemicals, etc to 800+ clients. It has a "Strategic Supplier" status
with many MNCs due to its wider product portfolio, cost
competitiveness and ability to supply consistently. The Indian Speciality
Chemical Industry is expected to reach $60-70bn by 2020 from $23bn
in 20131. Aarti Industries should gain from this growth given its strong
customer linkages and command over Chlorine chemistry.
Capex to lead to revenue growth as well as margin expansion:
The company is looking to expand capacities across benzene, toluene
& ethylene, and nitro toluene based value chain with a capex of ~INR
500cr over the next 3yrs (~asset turnover of 3-4 times) to cater growing
end-user markets and space vacated by closing down of few capacities
in developed markets & reduced global supplies from China. The
company is expected to have firm off-take commitments from global
agrochemical majors for exclusive supply. The addition of value added
products will further aid in margin expansion over the next 3yrs.
Pharma business to growth driver (to grow at 20% CAGR over
next 2-3 years):
Pharma is a high-margin and potential high-growth
business in a nascent stage. Most of the investment in pharma facilities
is already complete and the segment broke even in FY12. Now,
incremental volumes would only contribute to expansion in segment
margins and ROE.
Valuations & View:
Aarti Industries is a high quality proxy play two
key emerging trends: (1) rising demand for specialty chemicals in India
(15% CAGR FY15-FY20E) and (2) eastward migration of global
chemical manufacturing (Asia to have 70% production share by 2030).
We expect EBIT/Ton to improve in Speciality Chemicals segments
due to benefits of operating leverage and better product mix. The
company is setting up capacities for different chemistries which gives
us visibility of volume growth for the next three years. We expect the
company to grow its profits at 21% CAGR over FY16-17E and improve
its ROCE from 17% in FY15 to 19% in FY18E. We value the company
at 15x FY18E EPS at INR 630 providing for an upside of 20%
Dharmesh Kant (Dharmesh.Kant@motilaloswal.com); Tel: +91 22 30102470 (Earlier Covered by: Ravi Shenoy)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.