20 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
27,916
S&P CNX
8,566
CMP: INR295
TP: INR351 (+19%)
Gruh Finance
Buy
In-line operating performance
Gruh Finance (GRHF) reported PAT of INR601m (up 19.6% YoY) for 1QFY17. While
its operating performance was in line with expectations, higher provisions led to a
3% PAT miss. Key highlights of the quarter were loan growth of 24% YoY, seasonal
deterioration in its asset quality (GNPL at 56bp v/s 32bp in 4QFY16) and 12bp YoY
margin contraction.
Loan book grew 23.7% YoY (lower than previous years’ trajectory of +28%, owing
to rural stress) to INR115b. Disbursements increased 22% YoY (at a slower rate
than in the prior two quarters) to INR9.4b. The loan mix largely remained stable,
with housing loans accounting for over 92% of the book. Management expects
the growth trajectory to improve on the back of rural recovery and the
government’s thrust on affordable housing.
Reported margin contracted 12bp YoY to 3.91%, led by ~65bp reduction in loan
yields. Incremental business is at lower yields due to intense competitive
pressure.
Asset quality saw seasonal deterioration, with GNPL at 0.56% (+4bp YoY) and
NNPA at 0.27%. While HFCs witness seasonal fluctuations in asset quality, GNPLs
are likely to remain at 0.4-0.6%, given that GRHF operates in rural India and ~40%
of its customers are self-employed.
Valuation and view:
GRHF has performed impressively, with 26% loan book CAGR
and 27% PAT CAGR in the last decade. Its presence in the affordable housing
segment in rural areas provides pricing power on the asset side, with cost of
funding at par with large HFCs. This, coupled with a low C/I ratio and impeccable
asset quality, should drive earnings growth in the near-to-medium term. We
expect 28% loan growth and 27% earnings growth over the next three years. The
stock trades at 8.4x FY18E BV and 27.7x FY18E EPS.
Buy.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR m)
GRHF IN
363.4
307 / 219
4/9/25
65
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 107.2/1.6
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E March
NII
PPP
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
ABV/Sh. (INR)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Div. Yield (%)
2016 2017E 2018E
4.2
3.9
2.4
6.7
19.5
23.0
23.0
2.4
31.5
30.0
44.0
12.8
0.7
5.4
4.9
3.0
8.3
24.2
28.4
28.4
2.3
32.4
30.0
35.4
10.4
0.8
6.9
6.3
3.9
10.7
28.0
35.3
35.3
2.3
33.5
30.0
27.7
8.4
1.1
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 6129 1540
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.