Ultratech Cement
BSE SENSEX
27,788
S&P CNX
8,529
20 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR3,506
TP: INR3,966 (+13%)
Buy
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Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
UTCEM IN
274.4
962.2 / 14.3
3,600 / 2,581
2/18/11
921
37.7
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
2018E
Y/E Mar
238.4 262.9
309.3
Net Sales
43.5 54.3
76.9
EBITDA
21.7 29.6
45.4
NP
79.3 108.0
165.3
EPS (INR)
7.9 36.2
53.1
EPS Gr. (%)
755.8 852.2 1,000.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
11.0 13.4
17.9
RoE (%)
9.3 11.5
15.2
RoCE (%)
44.2 32.5
21.2
Payout (%)
4.6
4.1
3.5
Div. Yield
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
+7%
Operational efficiency aids profitability despite subdued realizations
Soft volume growth:
UTCEM’s 1QFY17 revenue grew 4% YoY to INR61.8b
(our estimate: INR65.6b). Its gray cement volume grew 6% YoY against
industry growth of 4%. PAT was INR7.8b, aided by higher other income due
to Ind-AS impact of INR1b.
Cost control helps offset weak realizations:
Cement prices failed to recover.
Gray cement realization declined 2.4% YoY (grew 3.5% QoQ) to INR4,083/
ton. However, UTCEM’s trend of consistent cost improvement continued. Its
unitary cost declined 6% YoY (flat QoQ), with meaningful savings on the
energy front (pet coke, better efficiency, WHRS, etc). EBITDA grew 25% YoY to
INR13.7b (our estimate: INR15.3b), translating to EBITDA/ton of INR1,053
(+INR134 QoQ;
+INR171 YoY) and(a) Net debt reduced by INR15.9b, making UTCEM a zero net
Other highlights:
margin of 22.2% (+2.2pp QoQ; +3.8pp YoY).
debt company; (b) FII investment limit increased to 30% from 24%; (c) For the
JPA deal, application for CCI clearance has been filed and the transaction is
expected to be completed in 9-10 months after getting all regulatory and
shareholders approvals – the acquisition would be EPS dilutive for 8 quarters;
(d) Secured coal linkage under auction in Maharashtra – 82,000 tons per
annum – meeting 10% of the coal requirement for Awarpur plant.
Management commentary:
The management expects 7% volume growth to
continue, given tangible signs of pick-up in infra-spending, housing sector,
smart cities and roads. UTCEM is positioned across the country to meet the rise
in demand and participate in the next phase of growth of the country.
Valuation and view:
At the critical juncture of demand recovery, UTCEM’s
strong focus on growth and cost efficiency make it a predictable play. Impact of
JPA deal would be contingent on the pace of recovery of the sector. It is a
strong bet on the cycle upturn, and in our view, the success in asset creation
should overshadow any near-term concerns for long-term investors. We factor
in 8-9% volume CAGR and 32% EBITDA CAGR over FY16-18. We value UTCEM at
INR3,966 (EV of 13.1x FY18E EBITDA and USD223/ton).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aashumi Mehta
(Aashumi.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1537
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.