Titan Company
BSE SENSEX
27,698
S&P CNX
8,545
3 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Retail
CMP: INR414
TP: INR360(-13%)
Neutral
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Demand outlook remains subdued
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
TTAN IN
887.8
367.9 / 5.5
435 / 303
0/1/32
507
47.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
111.8 126.3 147.8
EBITDA
8.6
10.4
12.6
PAT
7.1
7.9
9.6
EPS (INR)
8.0
9.0
10.8
Gr. (%)
-13.4
11.4
21.0
BV/Sh (INR)
40.4
47.1
54.9
RoE (%)
21.3
20.4
21.2
RoCE (%)
21.8
20.7
21.2
P/E (x)
51.6
46.3
38.2
P/BV (x)
10.2
8.8
7.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Titan posted 1QFY17
sales growth of 3.6% YoY (est. of +15%) to INR28b (Ind-
AS), with the Jewellery segment posting a 3.2% YoY increase in revenues.
EBITDA grew 38% YoY (est. of +23%) to INR2.8b. Adj. PAT rose 47.5% YoY (est.
of +26.1%) to INR2.2b.
Jewellery segment sales grew 3.2% YoY
due to a depressed demand
environment, shorter wedding season this year, clampdown on black money
(which was earlier invested in jewellery) and absence of activation (unlike
1QFY16 when the company had advanced its sales season). With the sales
season kicking in, management expects better demand. Segment margins
increased 150bp YoY (adjusted for VRS) to 10.2%.
Watches segment posted sales growth of 1.5% YoY
to INR4.9b, mainly due to
export sales decline as domestic sales rose 11% YoY. However, activation in this
segment began early this year, which does not augur well for 2QFY17 growth.
Adjusting for VRS, EBIT margin expanded 430bp YoY to 14.3%. Management
stated that, while yearly margins are likely to be in double-digits, 1QFY17
watch margins adjusted for VRS are not sustainable.
EBITDA margin expanded 250bp YoY to 9.9%,
led by gross margins expansion
of 80bp YoY and a 110bp decrease in A&P, neither of which is sustainable.
Management mentioned that gross margins were inflated by the absence of
spot gold purchases and that A&P is unlikely to decline on a YoY basis in FY17.
Concall highlights:
(1) Gold jewellery sales have been impacted by (a) the price
of gold, (b) clampdown on spending of unaccounted money and (c) weak
consumer spending. (2) Nevertheless, for the jewellery segment, management
maintained its guidance of 15% sales growth for the full year and 9-10% EBIT
margin.
Valuation and view:
There are minor adjustments to our FY18E EPS as a result
of the results and management commentary. Even though we expect
respectable 16% earnings CAGR over FY16-18E (delivered 4% over FY12-16) on
a lower base and a healthy contribution of GHS, we see risks emanating from
the still subdued demand environment. Valuations at 38x FY18E appear rich.
Maintain
Neutral
with revised TP of INR360 (value at 32xJune 2018 EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261