Jubilant Foodworks
BSE SENSEX
28,978
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,943
JUBI IN
65.8
70.3 / 1.1
1689 / 897
-12/-24/-47
613
55.0
6
September 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Retail
CMP:INR1,068 TP:INR1,090 (+2%)
SSG decline a negative surprise
Downgrade to Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
24.4
26.8
32.8
Net Sales
2.6
2.8
4.0
EBITDA
1.0
0.9
1.6
PAT
15.0
14.0
24.5
EPS (INR)
-11.7
-6.2
74.7
Gr. (%)
111.3 124.2 130.6
BV/Sh (INR)
13.4
11.3
18.8
RoE (%)
14.1
11.9
19.2
RoCE (%)
71.4
76.1
43.6
P/E (x)
9.6
8.6
8.2
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sales below expectations led by SSS decline:
Net sales grew 6.7% YoY (est.
18% growth) to INR6.1b (Ind AS), EBITDA declined 14% YoY (est. 22% growth)
to INR577m and Adj. PAT declined 31% YoY (est.22% growth) to INR190m. SSS
declined 3.2% (est. 4% growth) due to weakening sentiment. SSS decline was
particularly surprising given that the company had reported 3% SSSG in the
preceding quarter despite a challenging 6% base in 4QFY15. Base was less
challenging at 4.6% in 1QFY16. The company also went in for lower Domino’s
store additions (23 vs our expectation of 31) in 1QFY17.
Gross margins expanded 110bps YoY to 76.8%.
(est. 76.2%) led by soft input
costs and negotiations on material costs. Mainly due to poor sales growth,
staff costs were up by 70bps YoY, rent by 120bps YoY and other expenses by
150bps YoY. This resulted in EBITDA margin contraction of 230bps YoY (est. 40
bps increase) to 9.5%. Adj. PAT declined by 31.1% YoY to INR295m.
Concall highlights:
a) Management is confident of positive SSS from 2Q17
onwards as July and August have been good; b) In a stark change in strategy,
the management has stated that they will not take price increases for 12-15
months. c) New products Burger Pizza and Pizza Mania Extreme have received
good response and are close to double digits in terms of sales.
Cut estimates sharply, downgrade to Neutral:
We have cut our estimates for
FY18 by 32% due to poor consumer sentiment and IND AS impact.
Management has guided for positive SSS from 2Q, but the delay in recovery to
high single digit SSG affects forecasts adversely. Strategy of not taking price
increases could boost growth but affects margins. While we like the business
model, decent ROEs even in slowdown, and strong potential earnings growth
on recovery, the poor medium term visibility, with possible worsening of
consumer sentiment no longer justifies positive view
Downgrade to Neutral
with TP of INR 1,090 (40x FY18EPS, 40% discount to historical multiples).
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.