September 2016:
Economy
12 Annual Global Investor Conference
th
GST
GST: A game changer for Indian economy
Will actual GST legislation be as flawless as the constitutional bill?
GST (Goods & service tax) is likely to see its legislative birth, as the constitutional
amendment bill enabling both the center and the state governments to levy taxes
on all transactions has been passed by both houses (on August 8, 2016 by upper
house) of the parliament. In a more recent development, as many as 16 states have
ratified the bill. Being a constitutional amendment, GST requires at least half of the
state assemblies to ratify it. As a final step, the government is likely to seek
presidential assent for making this bill a law.
At our Annual Global Investor Conference 2016, we sought the views of Mr Adi
Godrej, Chairman of the Godrej Group, on the likely economic impact of GST
implementation. Besides, we visited Mr Satya Poddar, Partner, Tax Policy Advisor
Group, Ernst & Young during our Delhi Day trip to improve our understanding
further. In this note, we present a summary of their views and also our view on the
likely impact of GST on different sectors.
Mr Adi Godrej’s views
Mr Adi Godrej presented his views on GST at our recently-concluded Annual Global
Investor Conference 2016. According to him:
GST will add 1.5-2% to GDP growth within 1-2 quarters of its implementation.
A standard rate of 18% will be ideal. A standard rate of 22% might harm the
economy.
GST implementation will not only curtail indirect tax evasion but also direct tax
evasion.
The likely negative impact on the unorganized sector will not hurt but improve
employment on national basis.
When states see higher tax revenues after GST implementation, they will be
amenable to the inclusion of petroleum products under GST.
Economic impact of recommended GST:
If GST is implemented as per the Chief
Economic Adviser (CEA), Arvind Subramanian panel’s report, it will benefit the
economy in several ways. Firstly, by removing the net of multiple taxes at multiple
phases of production, GST will help harmonize the production activity in the
economy. The removal of tax considerations in making business decisions – setting
up of warehouses, etc – will increase efficiency in the system. Secondly, the
standard GST rate of 18% is unlikely to be inflationary, as higher prices of services
(currently taxed at ~15%) will most likely be offset by lower taxes on goods
(currently taxed at ~25%). Further, GST will not only help reduce indirect tax
evasion, but will also help to curtail direct tax evasion.
Mr Adi Godrej
Chairman,
Godrej Group
He is the Chairman of a
century-old family
conglomerate, with
operations across the
world. As one of the most
recognizable faces of India
Inc, having led various
industrial associations and
chambers, he commands
respect both in the business
community and in
policymaking circles. An
early-to-bed, early-to-rise
person, he is among the
earliest to arrive at work.
He’s a demanding boss, but
not an unreasonable one.
At 74, his enthusiasm for
work and life is inspiring
Nikhil Gupta
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825405
September 2016
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.