Jubilant Foodworks
BSE SENSEX
28,773
S&P CNX
8,867
22 September 2016
Update
| Sector:
Retail
CMP: INR975
TP: INR1,090(+12%)
Neutral
Long-term strategy unchanged
Awaiting clarity on new CEO, near-term outlook weak
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016
2017E
2018E
JUBI IN
65.8
1689 / 897
-24/-34/-50
64.2
1.0
613
55.0
Net Sales
EBITDA (INR b)
Net Profit
EPS
EPS.Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
24.4
2.6
1.0
15.0
-11.7
111.3
65.2
8.8
13.4
14.1
26.8
2.8
0.9
14.0
-6.2
124.2
69.5
7.9
11.3
11.9
32.8
4.0
1.6
24.5
74.7
130.6
39.8
7.5
18.8
19.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
45.0
48.7
48.8
DII
12.2
8.9
4.5
FII
31.7
34.3
41.5
Others
11.1
8.1
5.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Jubilant Food.
Sensex - Rebased
2,000
1,700
1,400
1,100
800
We met management (CFO Mr. Sachin Sharma and Sr. VP - Chief IR Officer
Mr. Arvind Vats) of Jubilant Foodworks. Following are the key takeaways from this
meeting:
No demand pick-up yet:
2QFY17 SSSG is likely to be positive due to the launch
of
Burger Pizza
(which is receiving good response), Ramadan impact in the base
quarter and sales of
Pizza Mania Extreme
for the entire quarter. There was no
mention of demand pick-up. Discretionary spending is expected to improve in
2HFY17, led by good progress in monsoon and 7th Pay Commission. Commodity
inflation continues, but remains benign (around low-single-digit).
Driving efficiencies in operations:
1) Working with vendors to drive efficiencies
in supply chain. 2) Six Sigma project initiated to reduce headcount further
(already successful in reducing 1-2 employees/store due to OLO and cost
cutting). 3) Automation in commissaries (The Greater Noida mega commissary
will be up and running by FY17-end). 4) Will use data analytics in a bigger way.
Use of data analytics in Domino's India was significantly less compared to the US
and Japan. Studying customer ordering patterns and customizing promotions
can offer growth opportunities.
Control over key costs crucial for near term:
Minimum wage increase in Delhi
(potentially over 40%) and Karnataka (over 25%) could adversely affect staff
costs to sales. The company renegotiates lease rentals every 9-12 years, and
many stores are up for renegotiation every year. Management’s ability to
negotiate for a small increase will determine the movement of rental cost to
sales. In absence of price increases, control over these two costs is crucial.
Other key points:
The gap between average system store sales and new store sales is increasing.
Moreover, average system sales itself have come down. New stores (in the
slowdown period) have much lower margins than earlier.
The company has discontinued products like
Subwich, Junior Joy Box
and
Custard Bliss.
New products are launched with certain internal objectives,
including contribution to the overall mix; if these conditions and product RoI
expectations are not met, then products are discontinued.
According the company's internal Value for Money (VFM) measuring
mechanism, there has been an increase in the number of customers who have
reservations about price-value equation of Domino's in India. The company has
already stated that it will not take price increases this year. It also indicated in
our meeting that the focus is on the lower price segment, and thus has
launched
Burger Pizza
and
Pizza Mania Extreme
so far this year.
Capex:
INR2.5b for FY17 (new restaurants + Greater Noida commissary +
technology + working capex of stores).
Retaining Neutral:
The stock trades at 40xFY18 EPS of INR24.5, a premium to
peers despite the weaker outlook. We have a
Neutral
rating on the stock. We
will wait for more clarity on the hiring of new CEO, and for a further correction
in the stock price before turning more constructive.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Jubilant Foodworks
Key charts
Exhibit 1: SSS declined 3.2% vs. estimate of 4% growth
SSS Growth (%)
Exhibit 2: 23 Domino’s stores were added during 1QFY17
Dominos stores
Cities
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: 1 Dunkin Donut restaurant decommissioned in
rd
1QFY17 while 7 were added; 73 restaurants as on 3 Sept’16
Dunkin' Donuts stores
Cities
Exhibit 4: Total employee count stood at 27,662
Number of Employees ('000)
29.5
26.2
21.1
21.9
25.0
25.8
26.8
27.1
28.7 29.2
30.3
27.7 27.7
19.7
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5: Revenue CAGR of 16% over FY16-FY18
Sales (INR b)
59.9
50.2
38.8
22.8
20.5
21
FY15
16.5
24
FY16
22.7
9.8
27
33
Sales growth (%)
Exhibit 6: Gross margin contraction of 10bps over FY16-18E
Gross Margin (%)
76.2
74.9
74.8
73.8
73.9
76.4
76.1
74.3
7
FY11
10
FY12
14
FY13
17
FY14
FY17E FY18E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E FY18E
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
22 September 2016
2

Jubilant Foodworks
Exhibit 7: EBITDA margin expansion of 130bp over FY16-18
EBITDA Margin (%)
17.7
18.5
17.1
14.4
12.2
10.8
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
10.3
FY17E FY18E
12.2
0.7
FY11
1.1
FY12
49.1
22.1
1.3
FY13
1.2
(9.8)
FY14
1.0
1.1
(6.1)
FY15
(11.4)
FY16
0.9
(6.2)
1.6
115.5
74.7
Exhibit 8: PAT CAGR of 28% over FY16-FY18
PAT (INR b)
PAT growth (%)
FY17E FY18E
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 9: Reducing margin pressure due to new additions
New Domino's Stores Opened in past 3 Years/Existing stores
57.8
52.1
Exhibit 10: Earnings recovery will lead to improved RoE’s
38
30
28
RoE (%)
36
31
21
17
19
13
11
48.2
46.9
47.9
46.9
43.9
37.5
32.7
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
22 September 2016
3

Jubilant Foodworks
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Net Sales
6,783
10,191
14,145
17,372
20,937
24,383
26,766
32,835
59.9
50.2
38.8
22.8
20.5
16.5
9.8
22.7
Change (%)
1,706
2,617
3,700
4,534
5,279
5,801
6,306
7,860
Material Consumed
5,077
7,574
10,445
12,838
15,659
18,583
20,460
24,974
Gross Profit
74.9
74.3
73.8
73.9
74.8
76.2
76.4
76.1
Gross Margin %
Operating expenses
3,876
5,693
8,027
10,333
13,098
15,943
17,700
20,982
EBITDA
1,202
1,881
2,418
2,505
2,561
2,640
2,760
3,993
Change (%)
82.0
56.5
28.5
3.6
2.2
3.1
4.6
44.6
Margin (%)
17.7
18.5
17.1
14.4
12.2
10.8
10.3
12.2
Depreciation
293
377
556
787
1,011
1,282
1,515
1,749
Other Non-recurring Inc.
19
58
77
85
65
110
131
160
PBT
924
1,562
1,939
1,803
1,615
1,467
1,376
2,403
Change (%)
176.0
69.0
24.1
-7.0
-10.4
-9.2
-6.2
74.7
Margin (%)
13.6
15.3
13.7
10.4
7.7
6.0
5.1
7.3
Tax
204
488
628
620
504
483
453
791
Tax Rate (%)
22.1
31.3
32.4
34.4
31.2
32.9
32.9
32.9
Adjusted PAT
720
1,073
1,311
1,182
1,111
984
923
1,613
Change (%)
115.5
49.1
22.1
-9.8
-6.1
-11.4
-6.2
74.7
Margin (%)
10.6
10.5
9.3
6.8
5.3
4.0
3.4
4.9
Reported PAT
720
1,033
1,311
1,182
1,111
984
923
1,613
Note: We have adjusted FY16, FY17 and FY18 P&L numbers for Ind AS Impact. Since Ind AS Balance Sheet has not been shared we have
retained earlier numbers.
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Lease Deposits
Capital WIP
Investments
Deferred tax assets
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liab. and Prov.
Current Liabilities
Creditors
Provisions
Net Curr. Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
2018E
658
7,935
8,593
17
8,611
17,241
7,883
9,358
1,889
261
1,307
-678
1,883
732
173
557
421
5,409
1,106
3,828
474
-3,526
8,611
2011
645
1,269
1,914
99
2,013
2,904
1,103
1,801
331
34
205
31
659
142
41
89
387
1,050
185
800
65
-391
2,013
2012
651
2,312
2,963
133
3,096
3,935
1,392
2,543
491
135
923
-69
578
187
64
131
196
1,504
304
1,133
67
-926
3,097
2013
653
3,645
4,298
122
4,420
5,802
1,852
3,950
660
102
940
-201
866
240
68
378
179
1,897
441
1,384
72
-1,032
4,420
2014
654
4,846
5,500
146
5,647
8,065
2,601
5,464
921
196
937
-375
1,102
331
90
246
435
2,599
659
1,825
115
-1,497
5,647
2015
656
5,806
6,462
144
6,606
10,810
3,438
7,373
1,142
199
746
-578
1,287
433
119
389
346
3,564
704
2,555
305
-2,276
6,606
2016
658
6,666
7,324
17
7,342
12,904
4,619
8,285
1,388
261
908
-678
1,400
552
125
332
391
4,222
721
3,130
370
-2,822
7,342
2017E
658
7,516
8,174
17
8,191
15,154
6,134
9,020
1,621
261
1,089
-678
1,655
587
141
479
449
4,777
901
3,454
422
-3,122
8,192
22 September 2016
4

Jubilant Foodworks
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
Valuation (x)
P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(loss) before Tax
Int./Div. Received
Depreciation & Amort.
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
Incr in WC
CF from Operations
Extraordinary Items
Incr in FA
Free Cash Flow
Incr in lease deposits
Pur of Investments
CF from Invest.
Issue of Shares
Incr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Incr/Decr of Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2011
11.2
29.7
2012
16.5
45.5
0.0
0.0
2013
20.1
65.8
0.0
0.0
2014
18.1
84.1
0.0
0.0
2015
16.9
98.6
0.0
0.0
2016
15.0
111.3
2.5
16.7
2017E
14.0
124.2
2.5
17.8
2018E
24.5
130.6
2.5
10.2
87.4
9.3
52.2
32.9
59.1
6.1
33.3
21.4
48.6
4.4
25.8
14.8
54.0
3.6
25.1
11.6
57.6
3.0
24.6
9.9
65.2
2.6
23.9
8.8
69.5
2.3
22.7
7.9
39.8
1.9
15.6
7.5
37.6
43.9
49.3
2
8
43
3.4
36.2
42.0
57.5
2
7
41
3.3
30.5
34.9
51.3
2
6
36
3.2
21.5
23.5
31.0
2
7
38
3.1
17.2
18.1
22.3
2
8
45
3.2
13.4
14.1
16.4
2
8
47
3.3
11.3
11.9
13.7
2
8
47
3.3
18.8
19.2
23.4
2
8
43
3.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(INR Million)
2018E
2,403
-160
1,749
0
791
-482
3,684
0
2,088
1,597
268
218
2,573
-1,000
0
193
160
-1,033
78
479
557
2011
924
-19
293
3
204
16
974
0
638
337
52
205
894
22
-10
0
-75
-62
18
70
89
2012
1,562
-58
377
0
488
-577
1,970
-41
1,132
798
159
718
1,968
22
34
0
-16
41
42
89
131
2013
1,939
-77
556
1
628
-354
2,143
0
1,834
309
170
17
2,021
16
-11
0
122
126
248
131
378
2014
1,803
-85
787
0
620
-332
2,217
0
2,357
-140
260
-3
2,615
15
24
0
226
265
-133
378
246
2015
1,615
-65
1,011
0
504
-923
2,979
0
2,748
232
221
-191
2,778
21
-2
0
-77
-58
143
246
389
2016
1,467
-110
1,282
0
483
-488
2,645
0
2,156
490
246
162
2,564
54
-126
197
130
-139
-57
389
332
2017E
1,376
-131
1,515
0
453
-446
2,754
0
2,250
504
233
182
2,664
-70
0
193
320
57
147
332
479
22 September 2016
5

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Jubilant
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Served as an officer, director or employee -
JUBILANT FOODWORKS
No
No
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For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
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Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232
Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
Kadambari Balachandran
kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
(+65) 68189233 / 65249115
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
22 September 2016
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
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