14 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Gruh Finance
BSE SENSEX
27,674
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,583
GRHF IN
363.4
128.3/1.9
370 / 226
15/29/31
63
41.4
CMP: INR353
TP: INR381 (+8%) Downgrade to Neutral
In-line operating performance; management cautious on LAP
Gruh Finance (GRHF) reported PAT of INR620m (up 20% YoY) for 2QFY17,
driven by 22% YoY loan growth and 10bp YoY margin decline to 3.93%.
Reported PAT was 6% below our estimate of INR656m. There was a minor
restatement of 1QFY17 accounts, on which we await clarity.
Loan growth continued to decline on lower disbursements in LAP, as the
management took a cautious stance. Disbursements grew just 3% YoY in
2QFY17 and 11% YoY in 1QFY17. The management expects disbursement
growth to remain subdued for the remainder of the year.
Reported margin contracted 10bp YoY to 3.93%, led by ~50bp reduction in loan
yields. However, margins were largely stable on a sequential basis. We expect
incremental margins to remain subdued due to pressure on home loan yields
as well as lower disbursements in LAP.
Asset quality remains largely stable, with GNPL at 0.62% (+4bp YoY) and NNPA
at 0.29%. While HFCs witness seasonal fluctuations in asset quality, GNPLs are
likely to remain at 0.5-0.6%, despite the fact that GRHF operates in rural India
and ~40% of its customers are self-employed.
Other highlights:
(a) RoA (reported) was sequentially stable at 2.05%; (b) Tier-I
CAR was 16.65% at the end of the quarter.
Valuation and view:
GRHF has performed impressively, with 26% loan book
CAGR and 27% PAT CAGR in the last decade. Its presence in the affordable
housing segment in rural areas provides pricing power on the asset side, with
cost of funding at par with large HFCs. While we cut our EPS estimates for
FY17/18 by 2%, factoring in lower loan growth, we expect 26% loan growth and
25% earnings growth over the next three years. Over the past six months, the
stock has run up ~40% given improved liquidity and sharp drop in cost of funds.
The stock trades at 10.2x FY18E BV and 35.0x FY18E EPS. While we like the
business and management, we believe valuations are rich and expect the stock
to remain range-bound over the near term. Hence, we downgrade to stock to
Neutral with a target price of INR381 (9.6x Sep 2018E P/B).
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
NII
4.2
5.3
6.6
PPP
3.8
4.8
6.0
PAT
2.4
2.9
3.7
EPS (INR)
6.7
8.0
10.1
EPS Gr. (%)
19.4
19.3
26.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
23.0
28.2
34.7
ABV/Sh. (INR)
23.0
28.2
34.7
RoA (%)
2.4
2.3
2.3
RoE (%)
31.5
31.3
32.1
Payout (%)
34.3
30.0
30.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
52.7
44.2
35.0
P/BV (x)
15.4
12.5
10.2
Div. Yield (%)
0.7
0.7
0.9
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 6129 1540
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.