20 October 2016
2QFY17 Result Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
28,130
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val. (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,699
YES IN
421.1
551.2/8.3
1,450/632
13/41/67
3,577
78.1
Yes Bank
CMP: INR1,309
TP: INR1,500 (+15%)
Buy
Stellar operating perf; CASA ratio breaches 30% for first time; RoEs of 21%+
Yes Bank’s (YES) 2QFY17 PAT grew 31% YoY to INR8b (in line with our estimate).
PPoP grew 36% YoY, led by robust balance sheet growth and continued
improvement in risk-adjusted margins. All-time high CASA ratio of 30.3% (strong
CASA growth of 53% YoY), controlled C/I ratio (~41%; -45bp QoQ) despite strong
expansion (branches/employees +36%/+46% YoY), and impeccable asset quality
(total stress loans stable QoQ at ~1%) were the key positives during the quarter.
Loans grew 4% QoQ (+38% YoY v/s +33% YoY in 1Q), led by strong growth in large
corporate business (+37% YoY and +5% QoQ; 67.9% of loans). Overall deposits
grew 29% YoY driven by stellar growth in SA deposits (+54% YoY); CASA ratio
improved 70bp QoQ to 30.3%.
Asset quality remained stable. Credit cost guidance for FY17 was revised down to
50-60bp from 50-70bp earlier. NSL ratio (NNPA + other forms of stress loans)
remained flat QoQ at ~1%. Provision coverage ratio was stable QoQ at ~65%.
Other highlights:
a) Refinanced one small account through 5:25 route with o/s
exposure of INR1b (9bp of loans) and sold one account to ARC; no SDR during the
quarter, b) CET1 stood at 9.7%, c) RWA/TA increased 115bp QoQ to 82.5%, d)
reported NIMs expanded 10% YoY to 3.4% (flat QoQ) and e) impressive RoA
expansion to 1.8% (+10bp QoQ/YoY).
Valuation and view:
With economic indicators turning positive, the bank is better
positioned with (1) higher branch presence (950 v/s 214 in FY11), (2) best-in-class
asset quality and (3) low market share of ~1.1%. With higher share of bulk
liabilities and corporate investment portfolio, YES would continue benefiting from
a falling interest rate cycle. We largely maintain our earnings estimates with
superior RoA of 1.7% and RoE of 21%+ Reiterate
Buy
with a target price of
INR1,500 (3x September 2018 BV) – based on residual income model.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
P/BV (X)
P/ABV (X)
Div. Yield (%)
21.7
4.0
4.0
0.8
16.9
3.4
3.4
1.0
13.1
2.8
2.8
1.3
2016 2017E 2018E
45.7
43.0
25.4
3.4
60.4
25.8
59.1
56.5
32.6
3.5
77.4
28.2
75.6
71.6
42.1
3.6
100.0
29.2
468.7
462.3
23.3
1.8
20.3
327.8 389.1
19.9
1.7
19.1
21.6
1.8
20.3
ABV/Sh.(INR) 323.4 383.7
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com);
+91 22 3982 5415
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 61291540
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.