MOSt Quantitative
Outlook Weekly
Index
Nifty
Sensex
21st, Oct 2016
CMP
8693
28077
Support
8620 / 8500
27700 / 27340
Resistance
8750 / 8880
28500 / 29100
NIFTY WEEKLY
'Bullish Harami' on the weekly scale re-affirmed the strength of 8500 support
Sustained breach above 8780 could unfold fresh momentum & could extend the up move towards 8900
Nifty is trading near its Option pain level of 8700
Any shift in option band of 8600-8800 level in final week of expiry could boost the momentum
BanknIfty is witnessing fresh buying in past couple of sessions.Option data suggest support moving higher to 19500.Con
sidering expiry week aggressive unwinding in 20000 calls could accelerate the momentum.
Pharma's relative strength chart indicates likely reversion from the long term support & augurs well for a short term
reversal
SECTOR
NAME
Pharma
Energy
Midcap
IT
OUTLOOK
FOR THE WEEK
Positive
Positive
Positive
Neutral
POTENTIAL
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Lupin , Aurobindo Pharma
ONGC, IGL
Jain Irrigation, SRF
TCS
Dharmesh Kant
Head - Retail Research
Sacchitanand Uttekar
Technical Analyst
Tina Gadodia
Derivatives Analyst
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Quantitative Outlook
Weekly
NIFTY DAILY
21st, Oct 2016
In line with our expectation nifty saw a good rebound from the lower end of the oscillation. With no sign of any meaningful
weakness the expectation of a continued up move remains firm. Considering the expiry week it could remain oscillating
within the range. A sustained breach above 8780 could unfold fresh momentum & could extend the up move towards 8900;
hence long positions shall be maintained with a trail stop strategy below 8620.
NIFTY OPTIONS OI VS PRICE
Nifty inched higher by 1.3% in last week owing to short covering. Nifty is trading near its option pain level of 8700. Option data
suggest crucial support at 8600 while 8800 remains immediate resistance. With expiry slated next week intraday volatility
could pick up. Aggressive unwinding by option writers either side of the band could pave way for momentum push towards
9000 on higher side or 8500 on lower side.
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Quantitative Outlook
Weekly
BANKNIFTY
21st, Oct 2016
October expiry witnessed Banknifty gyrating within the band of 19000-20000. Sector witnessed fresh buying in last 3 trading
sessions. Option data suggest support moving higher to 19500.Considering expiry week aggressive unwinding in 20000 calls
could accelerate the momentum.
BANKNIFTY
BUY
Call Ratio Spread
3
3
BANKNIFTY is in Long- Long Unwinding cycle
Option data suggests support shifting higher from 19000
to 19500
Call unwinding in 19500 & 20000 CE could lead to option
trigger, boosting the momentum
Considering expiry week and to benefit from faster
theta decay, Call Ratio Spread is recommended
: INR 14000 (At 20400)
: INR 1700
: Above: 20700
Buy 20000 CE Oct 1 lot, Sell 20400 CE Oct 2 lots
3
3
Target
Stop Loss
Hedge
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Quantitative Outlook
Weekly
PHARMA (RELATIVE STRENGTH)
21st, Oct 2016
On the relative strength chart of Nifty Pharma compared to Nifty, the reversion from the long term support augurs well for a
short term reversal. Even on our sector rotation study the index is advancing well within the improving zone which raises
expectation for a short term upmove in the sector.
LUPIN
Lupin saw a smart correction post the strong upmove from 1395 till 1750. The occurrence of a 'Bullish Harami' pattern augurs
well for the support to remain intact. Pullback if any during the week should be utilized to add longs as the setup provides a
good reward to risk opportunity with a stop below 1420 & an initial target up to 1600 followed by 1640 could be expected.
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Quantitative Outlook
Weekly
21st, Oct 2016
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