26 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE SENSEX
28,091
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,691
KMB IN
1835
1440 / 21.4
825.6 / 586.5
1/3/16
1332.5
66.4
CMP: INR785
TP: INR933 (+19%)
Buy
Healthy lending business performance, stable asset quality
Standalone results:
PAT grew 43% YoY to INR8.1b (in-line). Strong core
operating performance (+27% YoY), healthy NII growth (19% YoY) on the back
of 10bp QoQ margin improvement (4.5%), controlled opex growth (+11% YoY),
and stable asset quality (NSL at 1.3%) were the key highlights. Fee income
remained moderate (+13% YoY).
Loans grew 13% YoY (+4% QoQ), led by robust growth in CV (+9% QoQ, 42%
YoY) and small business and personal loan (8% QoQ and 19% YoY) segments.
Management expects 20% growth for FY17.
Other highlights:
a) SMA2 at 33bp and b) SA growth of 36% YoY.
Other businesses:
a) Profitability at its capital market businesses improved to
INR1b v/s INR830m a quarter ago, led by better profitability of K-Sec (INR960m
v/s INR600m in 1QFY17); b) K-Sec market share declined 10bp QoQ to 2.3%; c)
overall AUM increased 9% QoQ (+26% YoY) – average domestic AUM increased
15% QoQ and 40% YoY; equity AUM up 16% QoQ (44% YoY).
Valuation and view:
Merger with eIVBL places KMB in a sweet spot, with strong
presence across geographies/products and continued healthy capitalization (T1 of
~16%). The merged entity is India’s fourth largest private sector bank, with loan
book of INR1.3t and loan market share of 1.7%+. KMB’s premium multiples are
likely to sustain, considering strong growth and operating leverage available across
businesses, and a clean loan portfolio. Comfort on asset quality remains the
highest, with no SDR/5:25, negligible SMA2 and OSRL (12bp). We move to average
of FY18 and FY19 SOTP v/s FY18 earlier. Our target multiples for each of the
businesses remain unchanged. At our SOTP of INR933, KMB will trade at 3.6x
September 2018 consolidated BV with cons. RoE of 15-16%.
Buy.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2016 2017E 2018E
NII
69.0
81.1
95.5
OP
40.4
57.5
72.2
NP
20.9
33.4
42.5
Cons. NP
34.6
48.9
60.7
NIM (%)
4.1
4.4
4.5
Cons. EPS (INR) 18.9
26.7
33.1
EPS Gr. (%)
41.4
24.0
Cons. BV. (INR) 182
208
239
Cons. RoE (%)
10.9
13.7
14.8
RoA (%)
1.1
1.6
1.8
Payout (%)
5.1
5.8
5.8
Valuations
P/E(X) (Cons.)
41.6
29.4
23.7
P/BV(X) (Cons.) 4.3
3.8
3.3
* Proforma merged (KMB+EIVBL )
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Sohail Halai
(Sohail.Halai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.