27 October 2016
Q2FY17 Results Update | Sector: Media
PVR
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,916
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,615
PVRL IN
46.7
57.4/0.9
1334/646
2/35/43
153.4 / 0.2
74.0
CMP: INR1215
TP: INR1392(+15%)
Broadly in-line results; Growth guidance intact
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
18.7
22.2
27.0
EBITDA
3.3
3.7
5.0
PAT
1.2
1.2
2.0
EPS (INR)
25.5
26.5
42.9
Gr. (%)
664.3
3.9
61.7
BV/Sh (INR)
186.2 210.2 250.2
RoE (%)
18.7
13.4
18.6
RoCE (%)
14.5
11.2
14.8
P/E (x)
47.6
45.8
28.3
P/BV (x)
6.5
5.8
4.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Revenue broadly in line, PAT above estimates:
PVR’s overall revenues grew
17% to INR5.5b (est. of INR5.32b) from INR4.74b in 2QFY16, led by
4%/17%/35% increase in net box office revenues/food and beverages
revenues/sponsorship revenues. EBITDA margin contracted 165bp from 18.4%
in 2QFY16 to 16.8% in 2QFY17 (est. of 17.5%). EBITDA stood at INR930m (est.
of INR930m), as against INR875m in 2QFY16. Consequently, adjusted PAT stood
at INR291m in 2QFY17 (est. of INR270m), as against INR319m in 2QFY16.
Advt. revenue growth to remain healthy:
Advertisement revenue growth
improved to 35% YoY in 2QFY17 due to more Bollywood movie releases and
the company’s growing focus on value rather than volumes of advertisements.
This was mainly on account of an increase in share of Bollywood movies
compared to regional/Hollywood movies. The share of Bollywood movies
increased to 63% v/s 50% in the year-ago period. PVR held on to its earlier
guidance of 15-17% growth for the full year, with 2Q and 3Q seen as bigger
quarters in terms of Bollywood movies. With full integration of DT Cinemas in
next 4-6 months, growth can be as high as 18-20%.
DT integration to aid margin expansion:
PVR expects to take total screens
beyond 600 (including 32 DT Cinemas) in FY17 and revenue CAGR of 20% over
next two years. Located at premium areas, DT Cinemas enjoys higher ATP and
F&B SPH v/s PVR. Going ahead, F&B margins can improve significantly with
PVR’s scale and expertise coming into picture.
Valuation and view:
We expect 20% revenue CAGR and 23% EBTDA CAGR over
FY16-18. We expect overall EBITDA margins to improve from 17.7% in FY16 to
18.5% in FY18, mainly driven by synergies on the back of integration with DT
Cinemas, while GST implementation can expand EBITDA margin by 440bp
(assuming 18% GST rate). We revise our EBITDA/PAT estimates downward by
9%/4% and 7%/1% for FY17 and FY18, respectively, to factor in lower operating
margins, and value PVR at 14x FY18E EV/EBITDA. Maintain
Buy
with a target price
of INR1,392.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825000
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422 /
Chitvan Oza
(Chitvan.Oza@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 3010 2415
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.