Gateway Distriparks
BSE SENSEX
26,213
S&P CNX
8,033
27 December 2016
Update
| Sector:
Logistics
CMP: INR233
TP: INR313 (+35% )
Buy
Gateway Distriparks Limited (GDPL) is an integrated logistics player. Together with its
subsidiaries, it has a presence in key verticals like Rail, Container Freight Station (CFS),
and Cold Chain. Its subsidiary, Gateway Rail Freight (GRFL) is India’s largest private
sector Container Train Operator (CTO), with ~5% market share. GDPL is one of India’s
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS (INR)*
EPS Gr. (%)*
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/E (x)*
EV/EBITDA
(x)*
2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
10.5 11.5 12.3 14.0
2.5
1.2
11.4
8.7
10.1
7.5
2.4
1.1
9.9
7.8
8.5
7.9
2.9
1.7
3.5
2.2
GDPL IN
108.7
24.1 / 0.4
360 / 206
7/-24/-29
50
74.8
largest CFS players, with significant market share in JNPT and Chennai port. Another
subsidiary, Snowman Logistics is the largest Cold Chain player in India, with a capacity
of 98,500 pallets.
RoCE to improve; Viramgam terminal margin-accretive
Valuations attractive; Buy
Rail segment RoCE to improve over FY17-19E
15.6 20.1
11.7 14.3
12.8 15.2
10.7 12.7
(31.3) (10.3) 49.8 22.5
Gateway Rail Freight’s (GRFL) RoCE is subdued at less than 10% due to
underutilization of new terminals and heavy capex associated with creation
of large ground handling capacity ahead of volumes.
RoCE should improve from ~8% in FY17 to 12% in FY19, as RoCE on additional
volumes is likely to be in excess of 35%. We expect 12% CAGR in rail volume
over FY17-19E.
Viramgam terminal to improve rail margins in FY18
20.5 23.6 14.9 11.6
26.9 30.0 20.0 16.3
15.3 16.0 12.9 10.5
* Adjusted for Blackstone’s stake
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15
25.2
26.2
39.5
9.1
25.2
27.6
38.7
8.6
32.9
25.4
31.4
10.4
With the commissioning of the Viramgam terminal, we expect the lead
distance of double stacking, particularly for containers transporting to JNPT,
to increase meaningfully, resulting in better margins.
Management expects haulage savings of 2-4% post stabilization of the
terminal.
We estimate ~460bp margin expansion over FY17-19 for the rail segment,
with stabilization of the Viramgam terminal in FY18.
Rail segment deserves to trade at premium to Concor
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
380
330
280
230
180
Gateway Distr.
Sensex - Rebased
We believe GRFL should trade at premium valuations to market leader,
Concor due to (a) better sustainable RoCE / return ratios, (b) better margin
profile due to higher proportion of double-stacking and route optimization,
and (c) higher volume growth, led by ramp-up of new terminals
.
Valuations attractive; Buy
GDPL trades at 20x FY18E and 16.3x FY19E earnings (adjusted for
Blackstone’s 49% stake in GRFL), which we believe makes the stock
attractive, given ~460bp RoE improvement over FY16-19E.
We arrive at a TP of INR313 (upside of 35%), valuing CFS business at 12x
FY19E earnings, 40% stake in Snowman at 50% discount to market value, and
rail segment at 15x FY19E EV/EBITDA (premium to Concor).
Maintain Buy.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309