Larsen & Toubro
BSE SENSEX
26,727
S&P CNX
8,236
9 January 2017
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
CMP: INR1,381
TP: INR1,600 (+15%)
Revisiting orders and execution estimates
Slowdown seen in 2HFY17; revival in FY18
Buy
Domestic Engineering & Construction (E&C) is likely to witness a slowdown in
execution in 2HFY17 (+12% in 1HFY17) on account of demonetization and
continued execution challenges. The impact may linger longer for the ‘Elite
housing’ segment (6% of order book).
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg. Val, INR m
Free float (%)
LT IN
935.5
1615 / 1017
1/-8/10
1,301.3
19.1
2845.0
100.0
We cut our FY17 order inflow estimates (+9% v/s +18% earlier) to factor in
weak defense, infrastructure and power generation orders. We, however,
expect a revival in FY18, led by higher government spending on infrastructure
and defense.
Maintain our Buy rating with a revised target price of INR1,600 (18x FY19E
standalone EPS), adding INR490 for the subsidiaries.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
1,020 1,092 1,250
EBITDA
103.5 113.1 141.7
Adj PAT *
41.8
50.2
58.2
EPS (INR)*
44.7
53.6
62.2
EPS Gr. (%)
-5.3
19.9
15.9
BV/Sh (INR)
470.2 510.3 555.5
RoE (%)
9.9
10.9
11.7
RoCE (%)
6.3
7.5
9.2
Payout (%)
28.7
21.8
24.0
Valuations
P/E (x)*
31.1
25.9
22.4
P/BV (x)
3.2
3.0
2.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.8
19.8
15.7
Div Yield (%)
0.9
0.8
1.1
* Consolidated
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15
Promoter
0.0
0.0
0.0
DII
38.6
38.7
37.1
FII
19.3
18.7
20.5
Others
42.2
42.6
42.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Domestic E&C execution to slow in 2H due to demonetization and execution
challenges.
1HFY17 E&C execution was up 12% YoY, driven by strong 20% YoY
growth in overseas E&C and 8% YoY in domestic E&C. However, domestic
infrastructure growth was subdued at 3% YoY due to extended monsoon, lack
of clearances and payment delays. A revival in 2HFY17 appears challenging
given the impact of demonetization, particularly on B&F (elite housing)
segment. Execution challenges seen in the Infrastructure segment (70% of
E&C sales) during 2QFY17 are likely to persist in 2HFY17.
Elite housing projects (6% of order book) to slow; 4Q could be worse.
Feedback from industry players indicates that November saw strong housing
sales. This will not sustain in December, adversely affecting cash flows for the
developer and in turn payments to EPC contractors, who would reduce the
pace of execution. Our dipstick survey on housing projects under construction
by LT in Mumbai indicates that projects which are in advanced stages of
construction or being built by reputed builders have seen minimal disruption.
This, however, is not the case for newly launched projects or developers going
through financial stress. Our sensitivity analysis reveals that a delay in 50% of
the projects would lead to a 4% earnings cut over FY17/FY18.
Order inflow guidance at risk; FY18 to see revival.
LT’s FY17 order inflow
growth guidance stands at INR1.55t (+15% YoY, 1HFY17: 12%). Our earlier
estimates were building inflows of INR1.61t (+18% YoY) on the premise that
large domestic orders (>INR15b) would see a sharp revival led by Defense,
Power generation and Infrastructure. However, we now expect these orders
to remain flat YoY at INR260b as: a) no new power plant orders are likely to
be finalized in 2HFY17 and b) defense and infra orders are seeing delays. We
thus cut our order inflow growth estimate to 9% YoY (+6% in E&C segment).
Maintaining Buy, revising target price to INR1,600 (earlier INR1,670):
We cut
estimates for FY17/18 by 7%/8% to factor in lower order inflows and
execution in FY17. Maintain
Buy
with a revised SOTP-based TP of
INR1,600
(E&C business at 18x FY19E). We believe that LT – one of our top picks in the
sector is the best play on a revival in domestic infrastructure spending.
Stock Performance (1-year)
1,850
1,600
1,350
1,100
850
600
Larsen & Toubro
Sensex - Rebased
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543