18 January 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Havells India
BUY
BSE SENSEX
27,236
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val. (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,398
HAVL IN
624.6
236.7 / 3.5
460 / 259
14/5/25
603
38.4
CMP: INR378
TP: INR440 (+16%)
Market share gains neutralize demonetization impact
3QFY17 operating performance meaningfully above expectations:
Revenue
grew 13.2% YoY to INR15.1b in 3QFY17, significantly exceeding our estimate of
INR13.3b. Operating profit of INR1.9b (+4.0% YoY) too was above our estimate
of INR1.0b. Similarly, adjusted PAT of INR1.3b (+12% YoY) came in higher than
our estimate of INR0.7b.
Sales growth driven by market share gains:
Revenue beat was primarily driven
by market share gains across product categories. HAVL took several initiatives
to counter the impact of demonetization on sales, such as providing working
capital support to dealers and launching booster incentive schemes on reduced
targeted sales. These initiatives helped the company to gain market share and
grow despite overall contraction in the market place. The key business segment
Cables & Wires registered 17.4% YoY revenue growth to INR6.8b, supported by
volume growth of 21% YoY in Industrial segment and 17% YoY in Wires.
Electrical consumer durables’ revenues grew 19% YoY to INR3.4b, led by strong
revenue growth in Water heater and Fans segments.
Margins impacted due to launch of support schemes for dealers:
Gross margin
contracted 230bp YoY to 39%, as management launched schemes for dealers
to counter the demonetization impact. EBITDA margin contracted 110bp YoY to
12.7% (v/s est. of 7.8%). Ad spend stood at 3.5% of sales (4.2% in 3QFY16);
HAVL expects it to remain at similar levels in the coming quarters.
Working capital cycle elongates as Havells provides support to dealers:
Net
working capital cycle elongated to 30 days from 20 days in 3QFY16, led by
higher credit days provided to dealers. Creditors’ days were up to 30 from 20 in
3QFY16.
Valuation and view:
We raise our FY17/FY18E EPS by 19/6% to factor in the
lower-than-estimated impact of demonetization on the company’s financials.
We maintain
Buy
with a revised TP of INR440 (prior: INR390). We ascribe 32x
P/E (20% premium to 5 year average) multiple on its FY19E EPS of INR13.8.
(INR Million)
FY16E
2Q
3Q
4Q
13,359 13,304 14,754
-2.1
6.7
9.3
1,890 1,835 2,196
2.9
1.1
11.1
14.2
13.8
14.9
261
266
237
31
20
48
98
134
291
1,683 1,699 2,208
488
500
567
29.0
29.4
25.7
1,195 1,199 1,641
-0.1
3.2
34.7
1,204 1,183 1,637
-1.0
-0.4
23.6
1Q
14,668
17.1
2,004
23.7
13.7
280
16
307
2,022
567
28.0
1,456
36.3
1,450
33.7
FY17
FY16 FY17E MOSL
2Q
3QE
4QE
3QE
14,522 15,060 15,896 54,369 61,308 13,318
8.7
13.2
7.7
3.8
12.8
-0.9
2,034 1,907 1,819 7,479 7,861 1,034
7.6
4.0 -17.1
2.9
5.1 -43.0
14.0
12.7
11.4
13.8
12.8
7.8
308
301
370
922 1,259
300
19
15
0
126
50
19
253
264
323
687 1,147
270
2,030 1,877 1,773 7,119 7,699
985
572
537
518 1,988 2,194
281
28.2
28.6
29.2
27.9
28.5
28.5
1,458 1,340 1,255 5,130 5,505
704
22.0
11.8 -23.5
10.3
7.3 -41.7
1,409 1,325 1,255 5,109 5,585
704
17.0
12.0 -23.4
6.0
9.3 -40.9
Var.
13.1%
84.4%
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
77.1
64.2
72.7
EBITDA
8.0
9.0
10.4
Adj PAT
4.8
5.6
7.5
Adj EPS (INR)
7.8
8.9
12.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-6.0
15.0
34.0
BV/Sh(INR)
41.0
45.8
50.7
RoE (%)
19.0
19.5
23.6
RoCE (%)
20.4
23.2
24.1
P/E (x)
48.8
42.4
31.7
P/BV (x)
9.3
8.3
7.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Adj EBITDA
Change (%)
Adj EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj PAT
Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
12,523
-1.9
1,620
-1.4
13.1
248
30
170
1,489
421
28.2
1,068
-0.4
1,085
-0.4
90.6%
90.3%
88.1%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543