13 February 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Metals
Nalco
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,352
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,805
NACL IN
1,933
128.3 / 1.9
79 / 31
-11/39/88
96
25.4
CMP: INR66
TP: INR83(+26%)
Operating leverage driving down CoP; raising LME est.
Alumina exports led the miss in 3QFY17; Maintain Buy
Nalco’s 3QFY17 EBITDA of INR2.8b (+8% QoQ/22% YoY) came in below our
estimate due to lower-than-expected alumina exports and realization. Other
income was down 45% QoQ to INR0.7b post buy-back. Adjusting for the
exceptional charge of INR0.3b for entry tax on imports, PAT was up 40%
QoQ/71% YoY to INR1.7b.
Alumina production – best ever, but exports disappointed
Production was up 27% QoQ/9% YoY to best-ever 566kt. Sales growth was
lower at 7% QoQ to 311kt (est. of 335kt).
Realization was up 1% QoQ to USD269/t (est. of USD290/t) as benefit of
recent alumina price increase is likely to flow with a lag (spot at USD340/t).
Cost of production (CoP) declined USD10/t QoQ to USD211/t.
Aluminum: Production up 6% QoQ; operating leverage driving down CoP
Production was up 6% QoQ to 99kt (est. of 96kt), which is ramping up ahead
of expectation. Sales were flat QoQ at 99kt.
CoP declined ~USD100/t QoQ on operating leverage.
Operating leverage and alumina prices driving earnings growth; Maintain Buy
We expect metal production to increase from 372kt in FY16 to 448kt by
FY18E on improved domestic coal supply. The operating leverage benefit will
be meaningful because of high fixed cost (>USD600/t). Nalco is net long on
alumina and will benefit from sharp increase in prices.
We have upgraded LME assumption by USD50 to USD1,700/t for FY18/19E.
Alumina CoP is slightly higher on caustic soda prices. EBITDA is raised by ~9%
for FY18/19E. Revised TP is INR83/share (INR77/share earlier) based on 6.5x
FY18E EV/EBITDA. Maintain
Buy.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
68.2
74.4
Net Sales
9.4
10.9
EBITDA
7.0
6.9
PAT
2.7
3.6
EPS (INR)
-43.4
32.6
Gr. (%)
50.1
53.6
BV/Sh (INR)
5.4
6.9
RoE (%)
7.5
7.9
RoCE (%)
24.6
18.6
P/E (x)
1.3
1.2
P/BV (x)
2018E
83.3
18.4
10.3
5.3
49.4
56.8
9.7
13.0
12.4
1.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance – INR million
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549