Britannia Industries
BSE SENSEX
28,339
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,792
BRIT IN
120.0
385.8 / 5.7
3435 / 2421
6/-5/2
615
49.3
14 February 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR3,216
TP: INR3,775(+17%)
Buy
Remarkable growth, given high base and demonetization effect
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
83.3
90.0 102.6
EBITDA
11.5
11.4
13.2
PAT
8.4
8.6
10.0
EPS (INR)
70.1
71.9
83.0
Gr. (%)
46.3
2.6
15.5
BV/Sh (INR)
147.2 187.9 237.1
RoE (%)
55.9
42.9
39.1
RoCE (%)
46.0
35.0
32.2
P/E (x)
45.9
44.7
38.7
P/BV (x)
21.8
17.1
13.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Britannia’s 3QFY17 consolidated net sales grew 5.6% YoY
(our estimate: 6%
decline) to INR22.6b. Base volume growth was 2% (our estimate: 5% decline)
while overall volume growth was flattish. We believe this is remarkable, given
that volumes had increased 13% YoY in the base quarter (3QFY16).
Consolidated EBITDA was up 0.3% (our estimate: 19.1% decline) to INR2.95b
while adjusted PAT grew 4.6% (our estimate: 19.5% decline) to INR2.2b.
Consolidated gross margin contracted 230bp YoY
to 37.3%. However, with
lower other expenses (-130bp YoY to 20.4%) and staff costs (-30bp), EBITDA
margin contraction was restricted to 70bp YoY (13% v/s our estimate of 12.3%).
EBITDA remained flat (our estimate: 19.1% decline) at INR3b. Adjusted PAT
grew 4.6% YoY (our estimate: 19.5% decline) to INR2.2b.
Standalone performance:
Sales, EBITDA and adjusted PAT grew 6.3%, declined
0.6% and grew 7.1% YoY, respectively. Gross margin (37.1%) contracted 230bp
YoY while operating margin (12.9%) declined 90bp YoY.
Subsidiaries’ performance:
Sales, EBITDA and PAT posted 2% decline, 12%
growth and 31% decline, respectively, pulling down consolidated numbers.
Concall highlights:
(1) Cost savings would be ~INR1.5b in FY17; in FY18, cost
savings would be 40% higher than in FY17, (2) management expects 6-7% price
increase and mid-single-digit volume growth in FY18.
Valuation and view:
We are enthused with the consistent healthy growth in a
difficult operating environment, which results in higher visibility of growth
compared to peers. Return ratios of nearly 40% are also superior to peers.
Given (a) continuing investment in R&D and its own manufacturing facilities,
(b) strategic tie-ups leveraging of its enviable and consistently improving
distribution and marketing skills, we are positive on the company finding
additional levers of growth. We retain
Buy,
with a target price of INR3,775 (39x
December 2018E EPS, 15% premium to 3-year average).
FY17
2Q
3Q
10.0
2.0
23,612 22,648
11.0
5.6
14,902 14,190
8,709
8,458
36.9
37.3
5,578
5,504
23.6
24.3
3,131
2,954
13.3
13.0
2.0
0.3
289
303
15
11
670
561
3,496
3,201
1,156
997
33.1
31.1
2,340
2,204
5.8
4.6
FY16
10.8
83,254
7.1
49,989
33,265
40.0
21,718
26.1
11,547
13.9
38.2
1,134
49
1,962
12,326
3,920
31.8
8,407
46.4
FY17E
6.3
89,979
8.1
56,427
33,553
37.3
22,122
24.6
11,431
12.7
-8.4
1,189
56
2,522
12,708
4,079
32.1
8,629
2.6
FY17 Variance
3QE
(%)
-5.0
20,158
12.4
-6.0
12,321
7,837
7.9
38.9
5,354
26.6
2,483
19.0
12.3
-19.1
337
9
549
2,686
19.2
860
32.0
1,827
20.7
-19.5
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Base business volume growth (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
COGS
Gross Profit
Ma rgi ns (%)
Other Opera ti ng Exp
% of Sa l es
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
YoY Growth (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adjusted PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
1Q
9.0
19,411
11,587
7,824
40.3
5,102
26.3
2,722
14.0
274
7
401
2,842
906
31.9
1,936
FY16
2Q
3Q
11.0
13.0
21,277 21,444
12,717
8,560
40.2
5,492
25.8
3,068
14.4
272
15
506
3,287
1,076
32.7
2,211
12,945
8,499
39.6
5,554
25.9
2,945
13.7
281
12
481
3,134
1,027
32.8
2,107
(INR Million)
4Q
10.0
21,121
12,878
8,244
39.0
5,557
26.3
2,687
12.7
308
15
578
2,942
952
32.4
1,990
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
E MOSL E i
1Q
10.0
21,063
8.5
12,879
8,184
38.9
5,367
25.5
2,817
13.4
3.5
279
15
739
3,263
1,071
32.8
2,192
13.2
4QE
3.0
22,657
7.3
14,455
8,202
36.2
5,673
25.0
2,529
11.2
-5.9
318
15
552
2,748
856
31.1
1,893
-4.9