14 February 2017
Q3FY17 Results Update | Sector: Textiles
SRF Ltd
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,339
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,792
SRF IN
57
90.8 / 1.4
1,970 / 1,022
-7/-3/22
340.1
47.6
CMP: INR1,581 TP: INR1,825(+15%)
SpChem pain to continue, but funnel remains healthy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016
2017E
Y/E Mar
46.0
47.3
Net Sales
9.6
10.0
EBITDA
4.2
4.7
PAT
73.7
82.4
EPS (INR)
39.7
11.8
Gr. (%)
456.8
523.8
BV/Sh (INR)
17.0
16.5
RoE (%)
19.4
18.4
RoCE (%)
21.6
19.3
P/E (x)
3.5
3.0
P/BV (x)
2018E
55.2
11.6
5.7
99.9
21.3
603.4
17.4
20.8
15.9
2.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Revenue, EBITDA in line:
SRF’s consolidated revenue grew 3.4% YoY to
INR11.33b (our estimate: INR11.46b). Chemicals business (CB) de-grew 4.2% YoY
while Packaging (PB) remained flattish YoY. Technical Textiles (TTB) grew 13.3%
YoY, mainly because the base quarter was impacted by floods in Chennai.
EBITDA margin declined to 20.4% in 3QFY17 from 21.3% in 3QFY16 due to sharp
margin decline in CB. Lower operating leverage in CB led to lower PBIT margin of
16% v/s 26.4% in 3QFY16. Margins in TTB and PB remained healthy. Adjusted
PAT grew 6.4% YoY to INR1,083m (our estimate: INR978m).
Growth revival in Specialty Chemicals delayed:
The management highlighted
that the global agrochemicals environment remains weak, impacting its Specialty
Chemicals (SpChem) business. It expects the pain to continue for the next couple
of quarters. However, the pipeline of molecules or the funnel remains healthy
and it continues to invest in capability building and focus on Pharmaceuticals.
Within Pharmaceuticals, SRF plans to extend its reach in US and Japan. Margins
also dropped on account of operating leverage. The mix between Agrochemicals
and Pharmaceuticals for 3QFY17 was 80:20.
Refrigerant gas business performs well; HFO technical capabilities in place:
R-
134a gas registered healthy growth, driven by exports. The total volume for
9MFY17 was ~6,700 tonnes (against ~7,000 tonnes in FY16); the management
believes it will achieve its initial guidance of ~10,000 tonnes for FY17. Supply of
dymel (higher margins) is likely to commence in six months. Technical
capabilities to manufacture HFO1234yf are also in place.
Valuation and view:
We believe SRF is the best play in Chemicals. It is R&D-
driven and operates in a niche area. TB remains a cash cow while PB margins are
stable, SRF being the lowest cost manufacturer. Once the global agrochemicals
industry bounces back, SRF should benefit the most, as it has capacities in place
and has only improved its R&D prowess over the years. However, considering
that SpChem pain will extend into FY18, we cut our FY18 earnings estimates by
5%. We expect SRF to post 11% revenue CAGR and 20% adjusted PAT CAGR over
FY16-19. We maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR1,825.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1554
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1535