BSE SENSEX
28,339
S&P CNX
8,792
Dewan Housing Finance
CMP: INR304
TP: INR405(+33%)
Monetizing value from life insurance business
BV accretion of ~30%; Dilution-free growth for next three years
n
14 February 2017
Company Update
| Sector:
Financials
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
DHFL IN
299.8
337 / 142
8/14/75
91.1
1.4
618
60.7
n
n
n
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
NII
14.8
17.7
20.7
PPP
12.8
15.8
18.7
Adj. PAT
7.3
9.2
10.7
EPS (INR)
25.0
30.7
35.6
EPS Gr. (%)
17.2
22.9
16.0
BV (INR)
172
202
228
RoAA (%)
1.2
1.2
1.2
RoE (%)
15.1
16.6
16.6
Payout (%)
46.1
23.2
23.2
Valuations
P/E (x)
12.2
9.9
8.5
P/BV (x)
1.8
1.5
1.3
P/ABV (x)
1.8
1.5
1.3
Div. Yield (%)
6.6
2.0
2.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
39.3
39.3
34.9
DII
6.0
3.9
2.0
FII
26.4
29.5
35.5
Others
28.4
27.3
27.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Dewan Hsg. Fin.
Sensex - Rebased
360
300
240
180
120
DHFL has entered into an agreement with the promoters to sell its 50% stake
in DHFL Pramerica Life Insurance JV (DPLI) for an amount in the range of
INR16.9-20.2b.
The DPLI stake will be sold to its wholly owned subsidiary DHFL Investment
Ltd (DIL). To fund this transaction, DIL will issue compulsorily convertible
debentures (CCDs) to the promoters’ entity (Wadhawan Global Capital).
Monetization of the stake will help the company to reduce the leverage on its
balance sheet to ~13x from ~10x FY18. Strong net worth addition (~30%) will
ensure dilution-free growth until FY20, in our view.
We await further details on maturity of CCDs, taxation related to the deal
and any specific clause related to the deal between the promoters and DHFL.
The deal adds ~INR60/share to BV, although RoE could reduce by ~150bp
over the near term.
Significant accretion to net worth
The current book value of DHFL’s investment in the insurance JV is a mere
INR310m. Thus, virtually the entire proceeds from the stake sale will be capital
gains. Our current estimate for the company’s FY18 net worth stands at INR68.3b.
Post the stake sale, the net worth could increase to as much as INR88.5b (at the
upper end of the valuation range without factoring in taxation). This implies ~30%
increase in the book value for FY18.
Sharp improvement in capital adequacy without equity dilution
We believe that the transaction would shore up the tier I ratio by 350-400bp. As a
result, the tier I ratio would be more than 15%, the highest in past five years.
More
importantly, this would be achieved without any equity dilution (our calculations
suggest that if it were to achieve a 15% tier I ratio by raising equity capital, the
dilution would be more than 20%).
This will help sustain strong loan growth for
next three years.
Valuation and view:
DEWH continues to capitalize on its mortgage lending
expertise in an underpenetrated market. We expect AUM growth to remain higher
than industry average at 18-19%+. Margins will improve further with a higher share
of builder loans and lower cost of funds. Also, management’s continued focus on
lowering operating cost should improve investor sentiment and lead to a re-rating.
Further, the insurance deal assuages concerns about capital raise for growth.
Reiterate
Buy
with a target price of INR405 (1.6x FY19E BV). Our estimates do not
factor in capital gains.
Exhibit 1: Brief snapshot of the financials post the stake sale
FY18 (INR m)
Net worth
PAT
EPS
BVPS
Base Case Sale at INR17b Sale at INR18b Sale at INR19b Sale at INR20b
68,366
86,360
87,419
88,477
89,536
10,674
11,668
11,727
11,785
11,844
36
39
39
39
40
228
288
292
295
299
Source: MOSL, Company
We will revise our estimates post the completion of the stake sale.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1539
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.