15 February 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Media
SITI Network
BSE SENSEX
28,156
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016
2017E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
11.9
11.9
EBITDA
3.0
2.3
EBITDA#
0.9
0.5
PAT
0.0
-1.4
EPS (INR)
0.0
-1.7
Gr. (%)
NM
NM
BV/Sh (INR)
9.1
8.7
RoE (%)
0.1
-19.3
RoCE (%)
6.4
-2.8
EV/EBITDA
19.3
10.9
EV/EBITDA#
86.1
13.6
EV/Sub (INR)
3,581
3,695
stake
# (ex-activation)
S&P CNX
Downgrade to Neutral
8,725
SITINET IN
Re-aligning Phase III monetization expectations; downgrade to Neutral
794
Operational performance below expectations
30.9 / 0.5
EBITDA (ex-activation) misses estimates:
Consol. EBITDA grew 16% QoQ to
41 / 31
INR550m (est. of INR637m). EBITDA (ex-activation) declined 9% QoQ to
0/5/-5
INR82m (est. of INR197m), led by lower-than-expected broadband and other
15.7
operating revenue. Opex remained flat QoQ at INR2.43b (est. of INR2.39b).
29.0
CMP: INR38
TP: INR40(+4%)
2018E
14.9
4.1
3.3
0.0
0.1
NM
10.3
0.6
4.9
7.2
8.1
3,747
* Based on attributable EBITDA and subs post minority
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Net billing implementation in Phase I completed; subscription up 6% QoQ:
SITINET completed net billing implementation in Phase I in 3QFY17.
Consequently, subscription revenue and related distribution costs for 3Q
were netted off. Subscription income grew 6% QoQ to INR1.48b (in-line).
Phase I/II collections stagnant; broadband disappoints:
Phase I/II
collections have largely remained stagnant at INR103/INR78 per
subscriber/month over past four quarters, as the MSO:LCO revenue share
squabble continues. Management expects improvement in Phase II/III
collections to INR90/INR50 by March 2017. Phase I collections are expected
to remain flat. Broadband revenue grew 4% QoQ to INR0.26b (est. of
INR0.28b) as competitive pressure from RJio’s freebies kept subscriber
addition under check (especially in Kolkata). SITINET added 18k broadband
(BB) subscribers in 3Q, taking BB subscriber base to 213k.
Set-top box seeding subdued, below expectations:
SITINET seeded 0.54m
set-top boxes in 3Q (est. of 0.8m). Management expects to seed ~2m boxes
in FY17. We believe SITINET would exit FY17 with 10m digital subscribers.
3QFY17 capex at INR0.6b; STB inventory at 1.4m:
SITINET incurred capex of
INR0.6b in 3QFY17 and holds an inventory of ~1.4m set-top boxes, which is
largely intended to be deployed by 4QFY17.
85%+ underlying EBITDA CAGR over FY16-19; downgrade to Neutral:
We
expect digital subscriber base to increase from 7.9m in FY16 to 11.6m in
FY19. Increase in net subscription post-digitization should drive 85%+
recurring EBITDA CAGR over FY16-19E. SITINET trades at EV/EBITDA (ex-
activation/minorities) of 13.6x/8.1x FY18E/FY19E. We cut EBITDA
significantly for FY18E/FY19E to re-align our Phase III/IV monetization
expectations and downgrade the stock to
Neutral
with a DCF-based TP of
INR40 (earlier INR45). Recent stock run-up leaves limited valuation upside.
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1546
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.