Havells India
BSE SENSEX
28,662
S&P CNX
8,879
20 February 2017
Update
| Sector:
Capital Goods
CMP: INR413
TP: INR425(+3%) Downgrade to Neutral
Acquisition-led Consumer Durables foray a positive
However, current stock price leaves little upside; downgrading to Neutral
Havells board approves acquisition of Lloyd’s consumer durables business:
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017E 2018E
Net Sales
63.1
96.7
EBITDA
7.9
11.8
PAT
5.6
7.5
EPS (INR)
8.9
12.1
Gr. (%)
15.0
35.0
BV/Sh (INR)
44.1
49.1
RoE (%)
20.3
24.6
RoCE (%)
18.1
22.5
P/E (x)
46.2
34.2
P/BV (x)
9.4
8.4
HAVL IN
625
460/268
-3/-2/26
259.0
3.9
623
38.4
Havells India’s (HAVL) board has approved the acquisition of Lloyd Electric’s
consumer durables business for an enterprise value of INR16b on a debt-free/cash-
free basis, subject to closing adjustments. The company plans to finance the
transaction via debt and internal accruals. This acquisition is expected to be
completed by March 2017 upon completion of due diligence.
Acquisition to help Havells foray into consumer durables…:
The acquisition
2019E
112.8
14.0
8.8
14.1
17.0
56.2
25.1
24.1
29.3
7.4
will help HAVL to foray into the consumer durables business (air conditioners,
television, washing machines, refrigerators, etc.). Currently estimated at INR830b
(Exhibit 1), the consumer durables industry size is expected to grow in double digits
over next few years, given the low penetration levels, increasing urbanization, and
the aspirational and expanding middle-class.
…and gain access to Lloyd’s distribution network, service centers and
brand:
HAVL is acquiring the right to the ‘Lloyd’ brand, as well as its distribution
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
61.6
61.6
61.6
DII
2.7
2.9
4.1
FII
26.2
26.7
25.1
Others
9.5
8.8
9.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Havells India
Sensex - Rebased
450
400
350
300
250
network and service centers. Lloyd has 10,000+ direct/indirect dealer network
spread across India, 34 sales branches, 485 authorized service centers and 31
company-owned service centers. With a 14% share, Lloyd is among the top four
players in the room air conditioner market. It has grown impressively over past
three years, with ~70-75% of sales derived from air conditioners and the rest from
TVs/washing machines.
Valuations reasonable, given lower margins and return ratios of Lloyd:
HAVL would pay INR16b to acquire Lloyd’s consumer durable business, implying
P/sales of 0.9x/0.7x/0.6x on FY17/18/19E sales and P/E of 22x/16.8x/14x on
FY17/18/19E EPS. This appears favorable compared to Voltas and Blue Star, whose
UCP businesses are valued at ~22-25x FY19E EPS. However, RoCEs and margins for
Voltas and Blue Star are higher as well. We have not assumed any interest costs
related to working capital in our estimates; management commented that working
capital is in line with industry peers.
Valuation and view
.
We marginally tweak our FY18/19 estimates to factor in the
said acquisition. We value HAVL at 30x FY19E EPS (v/s 32x earlier) to account for
lower margins and return ratios post Lloyd acquisition, arriving at a target price of
INR425. We would closely look at the progress made on Lloyd integration and
improvement in margins/working capital before turning positive on the stock.
Moreover, the run-up in the stock price over the past two months leaves little
upside to our target price. We thus downgrade the stock to
Neutral.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543