Idea Cellular
BSE SENSEX
29,519
S&P CNX
9,127
20 March 2017
Update
| Sector:
Telecom
CMP: INR98
TP: INR120 (+22%)
Upgrade to buy
Vodafone, Idea get prepared to fight battle of capacity
Dominant position, synergy gains post-merger to drive healthy EBITDA growth
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
IDEA IN
3,600.5
128 / 66
-12/13/-23
351.4
5.4
1193
57.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
FY17E FY18E
Y/E MARCH
Net Sales
354.6 346.9
EBITDA
98.9
91.4
NP
-11.1 -47.7
EPS (INR)
-3.1 -13.2
EPS Gr. (%)
-134.7 -254.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
68.5
55.2
RoE (%)
-4.4 -21.4
RoCE (%)
2.5
-0.2
P/E (x)
-31.7
-7.4
P/BV (x)
1.4
1.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
FY19E
373.5
101.0
-50.2
-14.0
353.3
42.8
-28.5
0.3
-7.0
2.3
The telecom battleground is all set to intensify with Idea and Vodafone announcing to
merge their businesses in a deal that will create a telecom giant. The merged entity is
valued at 8.3x on FY19E with an EV of INR1,779b – Idea will issue shares at a swap ratio of
1:1 to Vodafone India shareholders. The deal will allow the merged company to
command a leadership position in spectrum (with a 24% share) and broadband sites. This
could lead us to revise up our revenue market share estimates (we have factored decline
of 250-300bp for both the companies). The current sub-30% EBITDA margin could scale up
to 36-39% over next 4-5 years, led by synergies and scale benefits. Furthermore, reducing
capex requirement and tower sale could lower leverage to around 4x by FY19E. We
upgrade Idea to Buy with a target price of INR120, implying 9x EV/EBITDA on FY19E for
the combined entity. In our view, the rich valuation is justified, as the expected recovery
from FY19 could drive EBITDA CAGR of 18% over FY18-22.
Deal contours in line with expectations
In line with our expectations, Vodafone will have 50% shareholding in the merged
entity, implying a share swap ratio of 1:1. Pro forma net debt as of end-December
2016 is INR1,079b (Vodafone: INR552b, and Idea: INR527b), with an EV of
INR1,779b at current price. The deal includes: 1) Idea’s consolidated entity,
including wireless and tower businesses and 11.15% Indus stake and 2) Vodafone’s
mobility business and standalone towers (but not its 42% stake in Indus). Idea’s
promoters will buy 5% from Vodafone at a price of INR110/share, with effective
shareholding of 26% and 45%, respectively. Additionally, Idea has the right to
acquire additional 9.5% stake from Vodafone at a price of INR130/share over next
four years to create equal shareholding of 35.5% for each promoter group.
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
42.5
6.9
24.3
26.3
42.2
6.6
25.1
26.1
42.2
5.4
24.1
28.3
Vodafone, Idea getting prepared to fight the battle of capacity
Vodafone and Idea will have combined spectrum market share of 24%, above
Bharti’s 21% and RJio’s 19%. This implies a sizeable spectrum/circle of ~51.
Additionally, it will have ~273,000 sites, of which ~170,000 will be broadband sites,
higher than estimated RJio’s broadband sites and in line with Bharti’s. This should
allow the combined company to accommodate over 15x more data volumes than
currently, and thus match RJio’s data offerings. We continue believing that the
industry is moving away from price/volume to subscriber/ARPU metrics on the
back of ARPU-accretive and bundled (voice and data) offerings. Thus, pricing-led
elasticity gains should support revenue growth with limited incremental costs.
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Idea Cellular
Sensex - Rebased
130
110
90
70
50
Revenue market share may be revised up from FY19
Our current estimates for both Vodafone and Idea factor in ~250-300bp market
share dilution over FY16-21E, given their weak competitive footing on individual
basis. We, however, believe this could be revised up FY19 onward if the deal is
completed over next 12 months, as the combined entity will have the wherewithal
to compete effectively.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 3982 5423
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1546