Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
29,576
S&P CNX
9,181
10 April 2017
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
CMP: INR475
TP: INR609 (+28%)
Buy
JLR Mar-17 volumes above est. at 71,609 units (+11% YoY)
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Volumes of LR flat, while Jaguar volumes up ~53% driven by F-Pace and XE
TTMT IN
3,395.9
599 / 373
-1/-21/8
1613.2
25.0
4174
65.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017E 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
2,783 3,066 3,812
EBITDA
295.8 406.5 582.5
NP
39.1 100.0 210.4
Adj. EPS (INR)
11.5
29.4
62.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-68.8 155.6 110.5
BV/Sh. (INR)
248.7 274.9 333.6
RoE (%)
4.7
11.2
20.4
RoCE (%)
4.4
9.3
15.8
P/E (x)
41.2
16.1
7.7
P/BV (x)
1.9
1.7
1.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
As On
Promoter
34.7
33.0
33.0
DII
14.8
14.5
17.4
FII
24.2
26.1
23.6
Others
26.2
26.4
26.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
620
540
460
380
300
JLR Mar-17 wholesale volumes grew ~11% YoY (+31% MoM) to 71,609 units,
exceeding our estimate of 68,155 units.
Jaguar volumes grew ~53% YoY to 20,492 units (est. of 19,780 units), driven by
F-Pace and XE. Also, XF long-wheel base exhibited good growth in China JV.
Land Rover (LR) volumes were flat YoY at 51,117 units (est. of 48,375 units),
with continuing strong sales of Discovery Sport, Evoque and Range Rover Sport
offset by the run-out of Defender and Discovery.
JLR Mar-17 retail volumes grew ~21% YoY (+122% MoM) to 90,838 units,
driven by an increase of 83% in Jaguar volumes and ~5% in LR volumes.
Jaguar retail volumes were driven by F-Pace (to ~10.8k units) and XE volume
growth of ~16% YoY. Jaguar XF volumes too increased ~14% YoY.
LR’s retail volumes grew ~5% YoY, mainly led by strong growth in Discovery
Sport (+13%), RR Evoque (+13%), RR Sport (+12%) and RR (+20%), partly offset
by a decline in Discovery (-30%) and run-out of Defender. Sales of the all-new
Discovery began in Feb-17, with 4,862 units retailed since its launch.
Region-wise, UK sales grew ~27% YoY, followed by North America (21%), EU
(21%) and China (19%), led by high demand for F-Pace, and XF long-wheel base
in China. Rest of world sales grew ~8% YoY.
FY17 wholesale volumes grew 10% YoY to 600,731 units.
The stock trades at 16.1x/7.7x FY18/FY19E consolidated EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR609 (FY19 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares and
INR426 for DVR (~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jigar Shah
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1534
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.