Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
29,576
S&P CNX
9,181
10 April 2017
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
CMP: INR475
TP: INR609 (+28%)
Buy
JLR Mar-17 volumes above est. at 71,609 units (+11% YoY)
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Volumes of LR flat, while Jaguar volumes up ~53% driven by F-Pace and XE
TTMT IN
3,395.9
599 / 373
-1/-21/8
1613.2
25.0
4174
65.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017E 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
2,783 3,066 3,812
EBITDA
295.8 406.5 582.5
NP
39.1 100.0 210.4
Adj. EPS (INR)
11.5
29.4
62.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-68.8 155.6 110.5
BV/Sh. (INR)
248.7 274.9 333.6
RoE (%)
4.7
11.2
20.4
RoCE (%)
4.4
9.3
15.8
P/E (x)
41.2
16.1
7.7
P/BV (x)
1.9
1.7
1.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
As On
Promoter
34.7
33.0
33.0
DII
14.8
14.5
17.4
FII
24.2
26.1
23.6
Others
26.2
26.4
26.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
620
540
460
380
300
JLR Mar-17 wholesale volumes grew ~11% YoY (+31% MoM) to 71,609 units,
exceeding our estimate of 68,155 units.
Jaguar volumes grew ~53% YoY to 20,492 units (est. of 19,780 units), driven by
F-Pace and XE. Also, XF long-wheel base exhibited good growth in China JV.
Land Rover (LR) volumes were flat YoY at 51,117 units (est. of 48,375 units),
with continuing strong sales of Discovery Sport, Evoque and Range Rover Sport
offset by the run-out of Defender and Discovery.
JLR Mar-17 retail volumes grew ~21% YoY (+122% MoM) to 90,838 units,
driven by an increase of 83% in Jaguar volumes and ~5% in LR volumes.
Jaguar retail volumes were driven by F-Pace (to ~10.8k units) and XE volume
growth of ~16% YoY. Jaguar XF volumes too increased ~14% YoY.
LR’s retail volumes grew ~5% YoY, mainly led by strong growth in Discovery
Sport (+13%), RR Evoque (+13%), RR Sport (+12%) and RR (+20%), partly offset
by a decline in Discovery (-30%) and run-out of Defender. Sales of the all-new
Discovery began in Feb-17, with 4,862 units retailed since its launch.
Region-wise, UK sales grew ~27% YoY, followed by North America (21%), EU
(21%) and China (19%), led by high demand for F-Pace, and XF long-wheel base
in China. Rest of world sales grew ~8% YoY.
FY17 wholesale volumes grew 10% YoY to 600,731 units.
The stock trades at 16.1x/7.7x FY18/FY19E consolidated EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR609 (FY19 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares and
INR426 for DVR (~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jigar Shah
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1534
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Tata Motors
TATA MOTORS: JLR [Wholesales]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Retail]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Region-wise Retail Sales
Region
UK
US
Europe
China
RoW
Total JLR
Brand-wise Retail Sales
Brands
XF
XJ
F-Pace
XK
XE
Others (incl. F-type)
Total Jaguar
Defender
Discovery
Freelander/Dis. Sport
Range Rover (incl. new)
RR Evoque
RR Sport (incl. new model)
Total Land Rover
Mar-17
90,838
27,820
63,018
Mar-16
75,303
15,175
60,128
YoY (%) chg
20.6
83.3
4.8
MoM
Feb-17
40,978
12,203
28,775
MoM (%)
chg
121.7
128.0
119.0
FY17
604,007
172,848
431,159
FY16
521,571
94,449
427,122
(%) chg
15.8
83.0
0.9
Mar-17
71,609
20,492
51,117
Mar-16
64,579
13,370
51,209
YoY (%) chg
10.9
53.3
-0.2
MoM
MoM (%)
Feb-17
chg
54,576
31.2
16,096
27.3
38,480
32.8
FY17
600,731
178,676
422,055
FY16
544,085
102,106
441,979
(%) chg
10.4
75.0
-4.5
Mar-17
31,778
15,033
20,516
12,261
11,250
90,838
Mar-16
25,127
12,440
16,999
10,288
10,449
75,303
YoY %
26.5
20.8
20.7
19.2
7.7
20.6
Feb-17
8,131
9,908
10,805
12,813
6,036
47,693
MoM %
290.8
51.7
89.9
-4.3
86.4
90.5
FY17
124,755
123,527
141,043
125,206
89,477
604,008
FY16
107,371
99,606
124,734
96,704
93,156
521,571
YoY %
16.2
24.0
13.1
29.5
-3.9
15.8
Mar-17
6,282
1,437
10,779
0
7,533
1,789
27,820
92
5,240
19,161
8,231
17,959
12,335
63,018
Mar-16
5,496
1,580
13
0
6,521
1,565
15,175
1,923
7,518
16,942
6,838
15,904
11,003
60,128
YoY %
14.3
-9.1
15.5
14.3
83.3
-95.2
-30.3
13.1
20.4
12.9
12.1
4.8
Feb-17
3,133
891
5,893
0
3,364
668
13,949
53
1,589
10,454
4,909
9,090
7,649
33,744
MoM %
100.5
61.3
123.9
167.8
99.4
73.6
229.8
83.3
67.7
97.6
61.3
86.8
FY17
37,157
11,489
67,956
1
45,468
10,777
172,848
1,380
42,023
126,158
57,480
114,373
89,745
431,159
FY16
34,182
11,735
13
228
36,452
11,839
94,449
22,504
51,072
96,124
59,974
110,533
86,915
427,122
YoY %
8.7
-2.1
-99.6
24.7
-9.0
83.0
-93.9
-17.7
31.2
-4.2
3.5
3.3
0.9
10 April 2017
2

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
EO Exp/(Inc)
Forex Gain/ (Loss)
PBT
Tax
Effective Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
% of Net Sales
Minority Interest
Share of profit of associate
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2013
1,888,176
14.0
1,622,487
265,689
14.1
75,693
189,996
20,216
35,533
8,115
876
5,151
136,335
37,710
27.7
98,625
-27.3
5.2
-837
1,138
98,926
99,560
-16.3
2014
2,328,337
23.3
1,954,308
374,029
16.1
110,782
263,248
25,652
47,338
8,286
2,777
7,077
188,690
47,648
25.3
141,042
43.0
6.1
-595
-537
139,910
141,986
42.6
2015
2,631,590
13.0
2,210,452
421,138
16.0
133,886
287,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
930
917
217,026
76,429
35.2
140,597
-0.3
5.3
-868
134
139,863
140,465
-1.1
2016
2,755,611
4.7
2,353,245
402,367
14.6
170,142
232,225
34,804
46,234
9,817
18,794
2,402
139,809
28,726
20.5
111,083
-21.0
4.0
-1,059
213
110,238
125,170
-10.9
2017E
2,783,471
1.0
2,487,657
295,814
10.6
177,788
118,026
34,837
40,870
7,381
-8,719
-1,106
59,525
28,823
48.4
30,702
-72.4
1.1
-971
13,879
43,610
39,113
-68.8
(INR Million)
2018E
3,066,144
10.2
2,659,626
406,518
13.3
203,464
203,054
38,530
46,274
6,947
0
0
125,198
40,928
32.7
84,270
174.5
2.7
-1,083
16,788
99,975
99,975
155.6
2019E
3,812,383
24.3
3,229,920
582,463
15.3
235,199
347,264
42,651
47,510
6,553
0
0
263,655
71,176
27.0
192,480
128.4
5.0
-1,201
19,142
210,421
210,421
110.5
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
6,381
369,992
376,373
557,223
-24,094
913,206
1,205,654
570,818
634,836
60,000
41,024
90,577
829,538
209,690
109,427
211,127
280,739
742,769
447,801
134,250
86,769
913,206
2014
6,438
649,597
656,035
549,545
-7,748
1,202,038
1,329,282
688,154
641,128
332,626
49,788
106,867
1,046,103
272,709
105,742
297,118
273,241
974,474
573,157
199,707
71,629
1,202,038
2015
6,438
556,181
562,619
692,115
-13,900
1,245,167
1,582,066
744,241
837,825
286,401
46,970
153,367
1,034,685
292,723
125,792
321,158
256,948
1,114,081
574,073
328,305
-79,396
1,245,167
2016
6,792
801,035
807,827
630,999
4,397
1,452,105
1,891,371
875,469
1,015,902
272,604
48,365
204,661
1,124,179
333,990
129,900
328,800
286,983
1,213,607
636,329
372,083
-89,428
1,452,105
2017E
6,792
837,712
844,504
617,916
4,397
1,476,670
2,389,301
1,053,257
1,336,044
70,000
48,365
218,540
985,742
312,664
137,267
197,822
291,983
1,182,022
632,954
335,542
-196,279
1,476,670
(INR Million)
2018E
6,792
926,663
933,455
599,832
4,397
1,548,620
2,682,801
1,256,721
1,426,080
70,000
48,365
235,329
961,702
352,817
151,207
113,189
296,983
1,192,856
672,032
285,613
-231,154
1,548,620
2019E
6,792
1,126,059
1,132,851
581,748
4,397
1,731,134
3,010,801
1,491,920
1,518,881
70,000
48,365
254,471
1,333,035
438,685
188,008
355,353
301,983
1,493,618
835,591
365,571
-160,583
1,731,134
10 April 2017
3

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Ratios (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2013
31.2
31.2
11.4
-16.8
54.9
118.0
2.0
7.4
15.2
41.7
6.7
0.9
4.0
0.4
28.3
17.0
30.6
21
41
87
2.1
1.5
2014
44.1
44.1
17.8
41.3
78.5
203.8
2.0
5.3
10.8
26.7
4.5
0.7
2.3
0.4
27.5
19.2
38.7
17
43
90
1.9
0.8
2015
43.6
43.6
14.1
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
10.9
33.8
4.1
0.7
2.7
0.0
23.1
15.7
39.2
17
41
80
2.1
1.2
2016
36.9
36.9
5.6
-15.5
87.0
237.9
0.2
0.7
12.9
84.4
4.3
0.6
2.0
0.0
18.3
14.3
32.6
17
44
84
1.9
0.8
2017E
11.5
11.5
-19.2
-68.8
63.9
248.7
3.0
31.4
41.2
-24.8
6.1
0.7
1.9
0.6
4.7
4.4
7.4
18
41
83
1.9
0.7
2018E
29.4
29.4
-4.4
155.6
89.4
274.9
4.0
16.4
16.1
-107.0
4.6
0.6
1.7
0.8
11.2
9.3
12.9
18
42
80
2.0
0.6
2019E
62.0
62.0
22.9
110.5
131.2
333.6
4.0
7.8
7.7
20.7
2.7
0.4
1.4
0.8
20.4
15.8
23.2
18
42
80
2.2
0.5
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
98,926
8,062
75,648
-22,231
-680
64,617
224,343
4,342
228,684
-187,203
-54,984
-242,188
7
45,082
-46,560
-15,087
-16,558
-30,061
153,550
123,488
2014
139,910
6,933
110,736
-43,083
57,744
88,983
361,223
7,221
368,444
-269,252
-36,611
-305,863
1
30,092
-61,706
-7,220
-38,832
23,749
142,531
166,280
2015
139,863
7,777
133,864
-41,940
-36,718
136,570
339,415
20,191
359,606
-315,396
-37,570
-352,966
0
122,288
-63,070
-7,204
52,014
58,655
152,629
211,283
2016
110,238
9,817
131,228
-10,430
17,674
3,154
261,681
-18,794
242,888
-295,509
-51,294
-346,803
135,788
-61,115
-46,234
-818
27,621
-76,294
211,283
134,990
2017E
43,610
7,381
177,788
-28,823
-24,126
971
176,801
8,719
185,520
-295,325
-13,879
-309,204
5,344
-13,084
-40,870
-12,276
-60,886
-184,570
134,990
-49,581
2018E
99,975
6,947
203,464
-40,928
-49,759
1,083
220,784
0
220,784
-293,500
-16,788
-310,288
5,344
-18,084
-46,274
-16,368
-75,382
-164,887
-49,581
-214,467
2019E
210,421
6,553
235,199
-71,176
171,593
1,201
553,791
0
553,791
-328,000
-19,142
-347,142
5,344
-18,084
-47,510
-16,368
-76,618
130,031
-214,467
-84,437
10 April 2017
4

Tata Motors
NOTES
10 April 2017
5

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Tata Motors
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Subject Company may have been a client of Most or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise of over 1 % at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research in the securities mentioned in this
report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412
Pending Regulatory inspections against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and
adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL replied to the Show Cause Notice whereby SEBI granted us an opportunity of Inspection of Documents. Since all the documents requested by us were not covered we have requested
to SEBI vide our letter dated June 23, 2015 to provide pending list of documents for inspection.
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Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research
receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues
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Served as an officer, director or employee -
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A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or
which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412)
has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Kong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of
Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of
these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting
Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is
not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in
the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons.
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be
engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal
Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the
Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232
Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
10 April 2017
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
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