BSE SENSEX
29,365
S&P CNX
9,119
Ashok Leyland
CMP: INR85
TP: INR98(+15%)
Buy
EGR Solution for BS4 could give competitive advantage
Focus on making business acyclic
22 April 2017
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
AL IN
2,846
112 / 74
-4/-6/-33
233.1
3.6
1088
49.6
We attended the Ashok Leylands’ Global Conference 2017, themed ‘Conquer New
Frontiers’. Mr Dheeraj Hinduja (Chairman) and Mr Vinod Dasari (MD) highlighted
initiatives taken by AL to leverage on evolving CV industry dynamics and making
business cyclical by reducing India truck business revenues to 50% in 5 years (from ~70%
currently).
Key highlights from the conference:
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017E 2018E 2019E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
196.6 217.9 249.2
22.0
12.0
4.2
8.3
21.8
20.6
15.0
20.1
3.9
24.8
14.7
5.2
22.2
24.5
22.3
17.5
16.5
3.5
29.9
18.8
6.6
27.7
28.4
24.9
20.1
12.9
3.0
Expects to gain competitive advantage driven by EGR solution for BS3 due to
lower initial cost and operating cost
While near term CV demand is expected to be weak, macro parameters
suggests recovery is no too far.
AL’s confidence in conversion of BS3 inventory to BS4 is based on EGR
technology. Expects conversion cost at INR300-400m for its 10k units
inventory.
AL is prepared for changing CV industry environment to gain competitive
advantage by not only delivering high quality service and spares, but also
offering cost effective digitally enabled trucks.
AL is highly focused on making business acyclical by reducing India truck
business revenues to 50% in 5 years (from ~70% currently), by growing share
of LCVs, Exports, Spare parts and Defence
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
50.4
50.4
50.4
DII
9.9
8.9
10.0
FII
17.9
11.9
6.4
Others
21.9
28.8
33.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Ashok Leyland
Sensex - Rebased
130
115
100
85
70
EGR based solution to BS4 could give AL competitive advantage
AL believes its BS4 solution based on iEGR technology (v/s SCR technology
adopted by competitors) gives it significant competitive advantage with
potential to gain market share.
iEGR not only results in lower cost by INR40-42k/unit than SCR, but also offers
~10% higher mileage than BS3, lower maintenance cost, and better payload.
Also, SCR would result in higher operating costs due to additional
consumption of 1ltr of DEF (Urea) for 10ltr of diesel consumption, but
availability of DEF is also a challenge.
Near term demand weak, but macro indicators suggests recovery
While demand in Apr-17 is expected to be weak, Mr Dasari is confident of
recovery in demand driven by a) improving sentiments and economy, b) pick-
up in infrastructure, and c) pick-up in mining.
He doesn't expect CV demand to be materially impacted by implementation
of GST led lower wait time at state borders.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Jigar Shah
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1534