24 April 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Indiabulls Housing Finance
BSE SENSEX
29,656
S&P CNX
9,218
CMP: INR1,007
TP: INR1,227 (+22%)
Buy
Impressive performance on all fronts
Indiabulls Housing Finance's (IHFL) PAT grew 24% YoY to INR8.4b (1% below our
estimate) in a quarter that was characterized by strong disbursement growth
(+44% YoY), stable spreads and cost-to-income ratio. The tax rate, however, was
lower at 14%, the impact of which was offset by increased additions to floating
provisions buffer. AUM growth of 33% YoY (+12% QoQ) was the highest in 19
quarters.
Yield on loans declined sharply by 44bp QoQ to 11.63% due to continued mix
shift toward retail home loans, coupled with interest rate cuts in the quarter.
However, cost of funds also declined 41bp QoQ, resulting in largely stable
spreads (3.24% v/s 3.27% QoQ).
FY17 marked a year of sharp change in liability mix. Only 4% of incremental
borrowings came from banks. Management targets to continue reducing the
share of bank borrowings from 37% currently to 20-25% by FY20.
PAT for FY17 grew 24% YoY, in-line with the trend witnessed in the past few
years. RoA/RoE remained best-in-class at 3.1%/26%.
GNPA/NNPA remained largely stable at 0.85%/0.36%. Provisions made during
the quarter amounted to INR3.11b v/s INR1.78b in 3QFY17. The company made
additional provisions due to tax benefit in enjoyed on DTAs in the quarter.
Valuation and view:
IHFL's transformation from a diversified lender to a focused
mortgage player has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving from 3%/0.8% in
FY09 to +26%/3.4% in FY17. Focus on core mortgage loans and market share
gains should drive AUM growth of 26% over next three years. Also, capital
consumption will be lower, with a gradual shift toward individual home loans
and increased sell-downs. IHFL is among the lowest-levered HFCs. Asset quality
trend is likely to remain stable. We expect RoE to cross 30% by FY20. We largely
maintain our EPS estimates. We use RI model with Rf of 7%, CoE of 15% and
terminal growth rate of 5%. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR1,227 (3.8x FY19E
P/B).
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
IHFL IN
421.3
424.2/6.6
1013 / 616
4/10/35
1689
76.4
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Fin inc
39.9 49.0 60.3
PPP
45.5 56.4 70.0
EPS (INR)
69.0 82.2 101.6
EPS Gr. (%)
24.0 19.2 23.5
BV/Sh. (INR)
288 322 364
RoA on AUM (%) 3.1
2.9
2.8
RoE (%)
25.5 27.0 29.6
Payout (%)
52.5 50.0 50.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
14.6 12.2
9.9
P/BV (x)
3.5
3.1
2.8
P/ABV (x)
3.5
3.1
2.8
Div. Yield (%)
3.6
4.1
5.0
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393