Reliance Industries
BSE SENSEX
29,656
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,218
RIL IN
3,240
4,589/ 68.8
1449 / 926
9/28/22
10920
54.9
24 April 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
CMP: INR1,416
TP: INR1,264 (-11%)
Neutral
EBITDA exceeds estimates; GRMs at USD11.5/bbl
RIL’s 4QFY17 standalone EBITDA of INR113b (+5% YoY, +6% QoQ) exceeded our estimate
of INR107b due to higher GRMs and throughput. PAT of INR81.5b (+11% YoY, +2% QoQ)
too beat estimate of INR75.2b, led by a lower effective tax rate of 19%. Cumulative capex
in RJio stands at INR1,790b, with 72m prime subscribers. Management guided for full
commissioning of the refinery off-gas cracker (ROGC) project by 3QFY18 and the petcoke
gasifier project by 4QFY18. Key drivers for near-term stock performance would be (1)
core projects commissioning and (2) subscriber ramp-up/ARPU in telecom.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
2,420.3 3,757.2 4,057.3
EBITDA
432.6 502.7 528.9
Net Profit
314.3 358.8 376.8
Adj. EPS (INR) 106.6 121.7 127.8
EPS Gr. (%)
14.6
14.2
5.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
978.1 1,082.3 1,191.7
RoE (%)
11.9
11.8
11.2
RoCE (%)
9.1
10.0
9.9
Payout (%)
14.6
14.4
14.4
Valuations
P/E (x)
13.3
11.6
11.1
P/BV (x)
1.4
1.3
1.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.0
8.7
7.4
EV/Sales (x)
2.1
1.2
1.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA beats estimate:
Refining EBIT stood at INR62.6b (-2% YoY, +2% QoQ).
4QFY17 GRM stood at USD11.5/bbl (+6% YoY, +6% QoQ). Petchem EBIT was
INR34.5b (+27% YoY, +3% QoQ), with margin of 13.7% coming in below 15.5% in
3QFY17 primarily due to a decline in polymer deltas.
Expect no further delays in core projects
ROGC by 3QFY18:
The ROGC project is expected to be fully commissioned by
3QFY18, and the petcoke gasifier project by 4QFY18.
Jio capex reaches INR1.79t:
Capex to date has reached INR1.79t. The company
has written off INR120b on account of revaluation of spectrum. Jio’s prime
user base reached 72m at end-FY17. The company is still unclear as to when
would it stop capitalizing expenses.
Domestic E&P continues to shrink:
KG-D6 gas production stood at
7.4mmscmd (-24% YoY, -1.3% QoQ) and shale at 39bcfe (-23% YoY and +4%
QoQ). KG field development is on cards, but subject to arbitration
resolution/plan approvals.
4QFY17 capex at INR330b:
Consol. net debt was INR1,966b (v/s INR1,807b at
end-FY16).
Declares dividend:
RIL has recommended a dividend of INR11/share for FY17.
Valuation view:
On FY19E basis, the stock trades at 11.1x adj. standalone EPS of
INR127.8 and EV/EBITDA of 7.4x. Our SOTP-based fair value stands at
INR1,264/share. Maintain
Neutral.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Swarnendu Bhushan
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309