25 April 2017
4QFY17
Results Update | Sector: Technology
Wipro
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
29,943
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,307
WPRO IN
2,432
1,202.7 / 18.7
578 / 410
-5/-3/-27
840
26.8
CMP: INR495
TP: INR500(+1%)
Pain points to drag performance at least till 1QFY18
Organic revenue flattish QoQ CC:
WPRO’s 4QFY17 CC revenue growth of 1.7% was
in the upper half of its guided band of 1-2%, and largely in line with our estimate of
1.5%. Seven weeks of revenue from Appirio integration (~1.5% contribution) meant
flattish organic revenue in CC terms. For the full year FY17, WPRO’s IT Services
revenue grew 7% YoY in CC (which included acquisitions), EBIT margin shrunk 260bp
YoY to 17.9% and PAT declined 6% YoY to INR83b.
Margins in line excluding one-offs:
IT Services EBIT margin was 17.6% (-70bp QoQ)
in line with our estimate, adjusted for one-offs, viz., [1] gain of INR4,082m from the
sale of EcoEnergy and [2] INR2,851m of impairment charges on certain intangible
assets. Negative impact from full integration of Appirio (-40bp) was partly offset by
operational efficiencies. Overall EBIT margin was 16.1%, implying continued losses
in the Products segment. Adjusted PAT fell 8.3% QoQ to INR19.3b (in-line).
Headwinds to Healthcare/Consumer mar guidance:
WPRO’s CC revenue growth
guidance of -2% to 0% for 1QFY18 reflects the weakness in the Healthcare vertical
due to uncertainty around the Affordable Care Act under the new US President,
continued sluggishness in Communications and uniformly witnessed spending
pressure in Retail. However, it expects steady revival thereafter, reaching industry-
level growth by 4QFY18, as Healthcare bottoms out and as India/ME restructuring is
behind. Profitability too is expected to exhibit a similar trajectory – declining in the
first quarter and then sequentially picking up over remainder of the year.
Valuation view:
We have cut our forward revenue estimates by 2.7-3.0% and
earnings estimates by 7.6-10.9%, factoring in fresh near-term concerns. Over FY17-
19, we expect USD revenue CAGR of 5.5% and EPS CAGR of 6.2%, implying
continued underperformance for now. While valuations at 14.3/13.0x FY18E/19E
appear inexpensive, multiple re-rating will elude as long as portfolio issues continue
to drag growth. Our TP of INR500 discounts FY19E earnings by 13x.
Neutral.
FY16
FY17
4Q
1,955
7,346
7,705
2.7
3.7
4.9
139,875 512,440 550,402
2.2
2.6
9.1
7.4
28.0
30.4
28.9
11.9
12.2
12.8
17.7
20.5
17.9
16.1
18.2
16.1
5,328 21,565 20,254
24.2
22.1
23.2
19,340 88,922 83,326
-8.3
-13.5
2.7
-6.3
8.0
36.1
33.8
181,482 172,912 181,482
84.8
74.9
77.4
47.2
45.9
46.4
Est.
Var.
3QFY17 (% / bp)
1,944
0.5
2.2
55bp
136,157
2.7
-0.5
272bp
-0.1
273bp
29.5 -157bp
13.3 -142bp
17.7
3bp
16.2
-15bp
2,493
113.7
22.5
172bp
18,983
1.9
-10.0
169bp
-15.1
160bp
7.8
182,764
-0.7
81.9
290bp
46.3
87bp
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
550.4
555.7
Net Sales
108.8
112.0
EBITDA
83.3
83.9
PAT
33.8
34.6
EPS (INR)
-6.3
2.3
Gr. (%)
211.7
234.2
BV/Sh (INR)
16.9
15.5
RoE (%)
13.6
12.8
RoCE (%)
14.6
14.3
P/E (x)
2.3
2.1
P/BV (x)
2019E
606.1
125.0
92.6
38.2
10.3
254.4
15.7
13.8
13.0
1.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
IT Services Revenue (USD m)
QoQ (%)
Overall Revenue (INR m)
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
GPM (%)
SGA (%)
IT Serv. EBIT (%)
EBIT Ma rgi n (%)
Other i ncome
ETR (%)
PAT
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
EPS (INR)
Headcount
Uti l excl . tra i nees (%)
Attri ti on (%)
Offs hore rev. (%)
Fi xed Pri ce (%)
1Q
1,794
1.1
122,376
0.8
9.9
30.7
12.2
21.0
18.5
5,286
21.2
21,877
-3.8
4.0
8.9
161,789
81.9
16.4
45.4
54.5
FY16
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
1,832
1,838
1,882
1,931
1,916
1,903
2.1
0.3
2.4
2.6
-0.8
-0.7
125,135 128,605 136,324 135,992 137,657 136,878
2.3
2.8
6.0
-0.2
1.2
-0.6
7.1
7.2
12.3
11.1
10.0
6.4
31.4
29.8
29.7
29.1
28.9
29.4
12.4
12.0
12.3
13.0
13.2
13.0
20.7
20.2
20.1
17.8
17.8
18.3
19.0
17.9
17.4
16.1
15.8
16.4
5,138
5,715
5,426
4,848
4,958
5,120
22.4
21.8
22.7
22.9
22.2
23.3
22,354 22,341 22,350 20,518 20,672 21,094
2.2
-0.1
0.0
-8.2
0.8
2.0
7.2
1.9
-1.8
-6.2
-7.5
-5.6
9.1
9.1
9.1
8.3
8.5
8.7
168,396 170,664 172,912 173,863 174,238 179,129
82.3
78.0
77.5
79.7
82.8
81.9
16.4
16.3
16.1
16.5
16.6
16.3
46.1
46.2
45.8
45.6
46.1
46.5
53.4
55.9
56.9
56
56.4
57.7
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531