Persistent Systems
BSE SENSEX
29,943
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,307
PSYS IN
80
45.4 / 0.7
Upgrading to “Buy” on expectations of margin cycle reversal
758 / 501
Above-estimate margin was the key highlight of 4Q…:
PSYS’ 4QFY17 EBITDA
-8/-22/-38
margin expanded 200bp QoQ to 17.9% (ex. exceptional item), implying a
66
270bp beat, led by a combination of factors such as SGA optimization, bad
65.0
25 April 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR568
TP: INR700(+23%)
Buy
Impressive margin beat
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
28.8
31.1
Net Sales
4.7
5.2
EBITDA
3.1
3.5
PAT
37.7
43.9
EPS (INR)
1.4
16.6
Gr. (%)
244.5
254.7
BV/Sh (INR)
17.0
18.1
RoE (%)
16.7
16.0
RoCE (%)
15.1
12.9
P/E (x)
2.3
2.2
P/BV (x)
2019E
35.0
6.0
4.1
51.4
16.9
265.3
20.3
17.3
11.1
2.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
(Consolidated)
Revenue (USD m)
QoQ (%)
Revenue (INR m)
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
GPM (%)
SGA (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
EBIT Ma rgi n (%)
Other i ncome
ETR (%)
PAT
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
EPS (INR)
Headcount
Uti l excl . tra i nees (%)
Attri ti on (%)
IP rev. proporti on(%)
1Q
78.6
-1.8
5,004
0.6
15.0
39.7
20.4
969
19.4
14.8
198
28.5
672
-11.6
-2.3
8.4
8,454
72.9
16.4
18.4
debts recovery and some pruning in costs related to the IBM IoT deal.
Revenue declined 0.9% QoQ to USD109m, marginally below our estimate of
USD110.5m. Adjusted PAT grew 2.8% QoQ to INR842m, above our estimate
of INR706m, led by strong EBITDA beat.
…capping a mixed FY17:
During the full year FY17, dollar revenue grew 22%
YoY to USD429m (and ~11% organically), EBITDA rose 11.6% YoY to
INR4,653m and PAT grew 5.2% YoY to INR3,129m. While revenue traction
was healthy, margin contraction of 180bp YoY (albeit on expected lines post
IBM IoT arrangement) and total revenues from the IBM deal were a couple
of pushbacks.
Segmental performance on expected lines:
Product Engineering Services
(43.9% of revenues, includes ISVs except IBM) was down 0.9% QoQ, while
Digital (~20% of revenues) drove growth (+11% QoQ). Revenues from IBM
alliance (31% of business) fell 10.6% QoQ, impacted entirely by seasonality
in the IoT deal (-USD3.5m QoQ).
Valuation view – Upgrade to Buy:
We believe that margins have bottomed
out and should start showing improvement YoY, ending three years of
contraction (from 26% in FY14 to 16% in FY17). This, combined with 10%
revenue CAGR over FY17-19E (facilitated by Digital), leads to 15% earnings
CAGR during this period. The stock trades at 13x FY18E and 11x FY19E EPS.
Our target price of INR700 discounts FY19E EPS by 14x, implying 24% upside.
We upgrade PSYS to
Buy.
(INR Millon)
4Q
100.4
12.0
6,771
14.4
36.1
35.7
19.8
1,074
15.9
12.1
210
21.4
808
4.3
6.3
10.1
9,264
75.2
16.4
28.2
1Q
104.8
4.3
7,018
3.6
40.2
34.7
19.6
1,058
15.1
10.2
253
24.3
733
-9.3
9.0
9.2
9,389
75.3
16.7
28.2
FY17
2Q
105.2
0.4
7,040
0.3
29.7
35.5
19.8
1,108
15.7
10.5
243
25.3
735
0.3
2.3
9.2
9,305
74.2
15.9
27.8
FY16
3Q
110.0
4.6
7,455
5.9
25.9
36.3
20.4
1,187
15.9
10.7
318
26.7
819
11.4
5.7
10.2
9,229
78.9
15.8
28.4
4Q
109.0
-0.9
7,271
-2.5
7.4
36.1
18.2
1,302
17.9
12.5
143
19.9
842
2.8
4.2
9.1
9,460
77.8
27.6
352
14.0
23,123
22.3
38.1
20.1
4,171
18.0
13.9
750
24.8
2,974
2.3
37.2
9,264
74.7
21.1
Est. Var. (% /
bp)
4QFY17
429
110.5
-1.4
22.0
0.5 -137bp
28,784
7,362
-1.2
-1.3 -121bp
24.5
8.7 -134bp
35.7
35.0
112bp
19.5
19.4
-113bp
4,653
1,116
16.7
16.2
15.2
275bp
11.0
9.8
264bp
958
217
-34.1
24.1
25.0
3,129
706
19.3
-13.8
nm
5.2
-12.6
nm
37.7
8.8
9,460
9,271
2.0
76.6
78.3
-45bp
28.0
29.0
-140bp
FY16
2Q
3Q
83.0
89.7
5.5
8.1
5,427
5,921
8.5
9.1
16.9
19.7
38.9
38.8
20.2
20.1
1,018
1,110
18.7
18.8
14.4
14.6
182
160
25.5
24.4
718
775
6.9
7.8
0.7
4.1
9.0
9.7
8,545
8,966
76.1
74.5
17.1
17.1
16.2
20.1
FY17
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531