BSE SENSEX
29,921
S&P CNX
9,314
Parag Milk Foods
CMP: INR239
TP: INR250 (+5% )
Neutral
Spate of new launches planned in a tough environment
High RM costs continue exerting pressure on earnings
We met management of Parag Milk Foods (PARAG) to get updates on its business
and future plans.
Procuremen cost still up, expected to come down by July-August:
Raw milk
prices are still high, increasing 3% between December 2016 and April 2017
(+20% YoY). The company is also facing shortage of milk, albeit manageable, as
aggregators have also started supplying to other players. PARAG follows a milk
procurement arrangement, wherein 80% is sourced directly and 20% from
aggregators. The company took a price hike of 8% across its portfolio in mid-
January (peers also took hikes of 7-8% but with a lag). However, we note that
price increases taken so far are not adequate, which could keep margins under
pressure. In our view, further price hikes (company is in process of taking
another ~6% hike, the timing of which is not decided yet) could cushion
margins to some extent, but have an adverse initial impact on volumes in a
downbeat consumption environment, especially if competitors follow suit with
a lag .
Sales look better after price hikes by competitors:
Liquid milk sales were good
in 4QFY17, while product sales were affected due to price increases taken
ahead of peers. April, however, seems to be better with competitors also
increasing prices. Mix continues to remain weak, impacted by higher
procurement in 3Q and then product volume weakness in 4Q. Besides this,
rural demand continues to be muted.
Strategy for recently launched whey protein brand
Avvatar:
The company is
targeting gyms, modern trade, dieticians and nutritionists for offline expansion
of this brand. It has already tied up with online platforms like Amazon. The
biggest differentiator for the product is the protein content (lower cost per
protein). It has 1.5-1.9x higher protein content compared to peers like ON. The
biggest test for PARAG will be to communicate the same to its channel
partners. To boost sales of this product, the company plans to conduct
programs for gym trainers. It will also try to make gyms as retail outlets rather
than just source of information. Management also claims that
Avvatar
tastes
better than other brands. The company had invested INR1.1b in its whey plant,
where it targets production of 4MT per day. Management targets INR750m of
sales from this product.
3 May 2017
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
PARAG IN
84.1
357 / 202
4 /-32 /-
20.1
0.3
120
52.5
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Y/E MARCH
17.3
19.9
23.8
Net Sales
0.8
1.5
2.2
EBITDA (INR b)
0.1
0.6
1.0
NP
0.8
6.9
12.5
EPS
-87.9 756.4
79.4
EPS Gr (%)
81.1
88.1 100.5
BV/Share (INR)
P/E (x)
293.7
34.3
19.1
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.7
2.4
RoE (%)
1.3
8.2
13.2
RoCE (%)
3.5
7.6
11.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17
Promoter
47.5
DII
2.3
FII
24.7
Others
25.6
Dec-16
47.5
4.0
27.4
21.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Parag Milk Foods
Sensex Rebased
350
320
290
260
230
200
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Parag Milk Foods
Distribution expansion and new launch plans for FY18:
The company plans to
adopt a three-pronged approach in distribution (increasing penetration in
current outlets, opening more outlets in present cities and adding new cities).
The company will be launching a new beverage brand
Slurp
within a month
to mark its foray into the fruit-based beverage market. The INR11b Indian
packaged juices market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~15% over next
few years, as per Technopak. The product will be priced at INR20 (v/s INR15
for competing products).
Slurp’s
differentiating factors are: (a) presence of
pure Alphonso mangoes and (b) presence of dash of milk. Initially, the
company plans a pilot launch in four key cities. Management is targeting
INR750-800m sales from its flavored milk brand ‘Top-Up’ and ‘Slurp’ in FY18.
The company will also be launching a colostrum (milk produced by a cow
just before and after pregnancy)-based product this year in association with
a Swedish company. The technology and the brand will be of the Swedish
company. This premium product will be available at INR125 for a 25gm
sachet. Relationship with farmers, technology from the Swedish company
and knowhow to store the material are the key differentiating factors.
The company also has plans to enter the larger milk-based protein category
with its Avvatar brand (competing with Protinex and Nutralite).
Other takeaways:
(1) There has been a steep increase in YoY inventory for SMP
and cheese. There was an increase in debtor days in December (now back to
normal but still is slightly up YoY). Creditor days remain flat at ~100 on account
of packaging and other materials. Creditor days on milk procurement are ~15.
(2) Recovery of sales tax may take a year. (3) Expansion of cheese plant capacity
to 60MT from 40MT was completed in April.
Valuation and view:
Procurement costs remain high. While management has
taken a price increase in 4QFY17, we believe it is not adequate. Also, further
planned hikes are likely to have an adverse initial impact on volumes in a
downbeat consumption environment. Intense quarterly volatility is a negative
surprise that was revealed for the first time in the brief listing history of the
company. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the performance of the new
launch pipeline, particularly
Slurp
(it is almost entirely fruit juice and not
catering to PARAG’s core dairy products category). These launches, especially in
a muted demand environment, could also postpone RoCE improvement. We
maintain our target price of INR250 based on 20x Mar’19 EPS (35% discount to
FMCG sector multiple, given low RoE and high volatility). Maintain
Neutral.
3 May 2017
2

Parag Milk Foods
Key charts
Exhibit 1: We expect consol. sales to grow at 17% CAGR over
FY17E-19E
Total revenue (INR b)
36.7
32.7
19.7
Revenue growth (%)
9.1
9.0
7.6
13.9
17.3
5.0
14.4
FY15
16.5
FY16
19.9
23.8
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E FY18E FY19E
15.0
7.4
4.6
Exhibit 2: ..with EBITDA margin expansion of 460bp over the
same period
EBITDA margin (%)
9.0
7.6
9.2
17.7
2.8
9.0
FY12
9.3 10.9
FY13
FY14
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Exhibit 3: Product wise revenue breakup
Skimmed Milk Powder
2
58
Fresh Milk
3
Milk Products
Other Revenues
1
67
68
18
22
FY15
20
11
FY16
21
10
9MFY17
Exhibit 4: Indian Sports Protein Powder market is expected
to reach INR8.6b by 2020
Sports Protein Powder market (INR b)
8.6
5.9
Exhibit 5:
Avvatar
Whey Protein Powder launched to tap
this market
2015
2020E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
MRP
(INR)
3,200
7,000
3,699
7,699
3,199
5,399
Exhibit 6: Cost per gram of protein offered by
Avvatar
is cheaper than international brands
Brand
Avvatar Whey
Protein
ON
MuscleBlaze
Content
Protein-30gms; BCAA-10gms; EAA-10.2gms in every scoop
Protein-24gms; BCAA-5.5gms in every scoop
Protein-25gms; BCAA-5.6gms; EAA-11.6gms in every scoop
sku (kg)
0.9
2.3
0.9
2.3
1.0
2.0
Source: Amazon India, Company, MOSL
3 May 2017
3

Parag Milk Foods
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income
Growth (%)
COGS
Gross Profit
Gross Margin (%)
Operating expenses
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Int. and Fin. Charges
Financial Other Income
Profit before Taxes
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
2013
9,250
2.8
6,907
2,343
25.3
1,509
834
1.4
9.0
261
403
21
191
-6.8
2.1
-16
-8.6
208
9.8
2.2
2014
10,883
17.7
8,359
2,524
23.2
1,701
823
-1.2
7.6
275
437
12
123
-35.4
1.1
-37
-29.6
160
-22.9
1.5
2015
14,441
32.7
10,616
3,825
26.5
2,753
1,072
30.2
7.4
275
469
15
343
177.6
2.4
21
6.0
322
101.2
2.2
2016
16,451
13.9
11,776
4,676
28.4
3,200
1,476
37.7
9.0
334
490
16
668
94.9
4.1
195
29.2
473
46.9
2.9
2017E
17,271
5.0
12,565
4,706
27.2
3,912
794
-46.2
4.6
420
338
65
100
-85.0
0.6
32
32.0
68
-85.6
0.4
(INR Million)
2018E
2019E
19,866
23,786
15.0
14,388
5,478
27.6
3,973
1,504
89.5
7.6
456
260
71
859
756.4
4.3
275
32.0
584
756.4
2.9
19.7
16,856
6,930
29.1
4,733
2,197
46.0
9.2
494
240
78
1,541
79.4
6.5
493
32.0
1,048
79.4
4.4
(INR Million)
2019E
841
7,615
0
8,456
2,553
95
11,104
7,479
3,159
4,319
230
0
8,692
4,330
2,498
73
529
862
400
2,137
1,502
558
78
6,554
11,104
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
CCD's
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash & Bank
Loans & Advances
Others
Long term advances
Curr. Liab. and Prov.
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
160
638
1,250
2,048
3,314
75
5,437
3,348
914
2,434
62
13
4,393
1,395
1,473
22
215
351
938
1,464
922
528
14
2,928
5,437
2014
160
761
1,250
2,171
4,369
52
6,592
3,600
1,181
2,419
371
3
5,408
1,903
1,673
42
437
335
1,019
1,614
1,254
349
10
3,795
6,592
2015
160
1,079
0
1,239
4,409
60
5,708
4,367
1,456
2,911
283
3
6,043
2,119
1,709
53
974
522
665
3,531
1,931
1,591
9
2,511
5,708
2016
704
2,915
0
3,619
3,787
110
7,516
5,229
1,789
3,439
286
0
6,184
2,724
2,360
77
455
411
157
2,394
1,678
668
48
3,790
7,516
2017E
841
5,983
0
6,824
2,848
95
9,766
6,179
2,210
3,969
230
0
7,494
2,954
2,183
1,105
437
602
213
1,928
1,161
689
78
5,566
9,766
2018E
841
6,567
0
7,408
2,769
95
10,272
7,129
2,666
4,463
230
0
8,164
3,360
2,716
587
481
720
300
2,585
1,887
620
78
5,579
10,272
3 May 2017
4

Parag Milk Foods
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE (post-tax)
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2013
13.0
29.4
128.3
2014
10.0
27.3
135.9
2015
20.2
37.4
77.6
2016
6.7
11.5
51.4
2017E
0.8
5.8
81.1
(INR Million)
2018E
2019E
6.9
12.4
88.1
12.5
18.3
100.5
35.4
20.8
1.2
13.9
4.6
293.7
41.0
1.3
27.4
2.9
34.3
19.3
1.1
14.8
2.7
19.1
13.0
0.9
10.2
2.4
13.2
13.1
13.3
52
1.7
7.6
12.1
12.6
53
1.7
18.9
12.4
13.2
43
2.5
19.5
12.4
13.1
45
2.2
1.3
3.5
3.8
48
1.8
8.2
7.6
8.5
45
1.9
13.2
11.3
12.0
40
2.1
5.7
5.9
3.3
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(loss) before Tax
Direct Taxes Paid
(Incr)/Decr in WC
CF from Operations
(Incr)/Decr in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Invest.
Change in Equity
(Incr)/Decr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Incr/Decr of Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
834
16
-1,041
-191
-225
-416
-6
-230
738
94
0
-407
426
4
18
22
2014
823
37
-846
14
-570
-556
10
-560
-37
1,055
0
-451
567
20
22
42
2015
1,072
-21
1,295
2,346
-679
1,667
0
-679
-1,254
40
0
-442
-1,656
11
42
53
2016
1,476
-195
-1,256
26
-866
-840
3
-863
1,907
-622
0
-425
860
23
53
76
2017E
794
-32
-748
14
-894
-880
0
-894
3,137
-940
0
-289
1,908
1,028
77
1,105
(INR Million)
2018E
2019E
1,504
2,197
-275
-493
-530
-1,490
699
214
-950
-251
0
-950
0
-79
0
-189
-268
-518
1,105
587
-350
-136
0
-350
0
-217
0
-162
-379
-514
587
73
3 May 2017
5

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Parag Milk Foods
NOTES
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
Served as an officer, director or employee -
No
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