Manpasand Beverages
BSE SENSEX
29,993
S&P CNX
9,317
9 May 2017
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
CMP: INR698
TP: INR841(+20%)
Growth continues to remain strong; Maintain buy
Cutting estimates on delay in fourth plant
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
MANB IN
57.1
776 / 493
-2/-9/16
39.9
0.6
73
55.9
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Y/E Mar
Sales
7.6
11.4
16.9
EBITDA
1.5
2.3
3.4
NP
0.8
1.3
1.8
EPS (INR)
13.3
22.0
31.1
EPS Gr. (%)
31.7
65.3
41.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
203.4 219.8 241.6
RoE (%)
7.7
9.3
13.5
RoCE (%)
8.7
10.4
15.2
P/E (x)
52.5
31.7
22.4
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.2
2.9
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
44.1
44.1
50.4
DII
30.4
31.7
40.0
FII
21.2
20.1
6.1
Others
4.3
4.1
3.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Manpasand Bever.
Sensex - Rebased
770
690
610
530
450
Part of new capex to be delayed:
Post QIP of INR5b, Manpasand Beverages’
(MANB) plan to double capacity from 177,500cpd to 377,500cpd is largely on
track. The company has already finalized land for three work-in-progress plants
at Vadodara, Varanasi and Sri City (South). Each of these plants is expected to
contribute capacity of 50,000 cases per day (cpd). The Vadodara plant is
expected to be commissioned in 4QFY18, while the Varanasi and Sri City plants
are scheduled for commissioning in 1QFY19. The fourth plant planned to be set
up in Jharkhand/Orissa to cater to the north-east region is expected to be
delayed (by one year to 4QFY19/1QFY20) with land not yet finalized.
Fruits Up on strong footing:
Our channel checks suggest that growth in Fruits
Up remains strong, driven by the company’s focus on
advertisement/promotion and the launch of Fruits Up mini pack (160ml) in the
carbonates category at an attractive price point of INR10/bottle. The company
focuses on advertisement through print/television, and is also active on various
social media platforms. Fruits Up contributed 23% of revenue in 3QFY17 (v/s
20% in the year-ago period), with the share expected to increase further to
~30% by FY19. Focusing on the health agenda, the company is planning to
launch a drink based on a mix of vegetables and fruits in FY18.
Summer season demand very strong, expecting stockouts:
Post adverse
impact of demonetization in 3QFY17, MANB is expected to bounce back
sharply, aided by the addition of new capacities at the Ambala facility (came on
stream in August 2016). Our channel checks suggest that demand at the onset
of summer is very encouraging, with most dealers facing stockouts. We
observe that its key SKU of 250ml and below continues to be in good demand,
especially in the Mango SIP category. In our view, MANB continues to operate
at full utilization to cater to growing demand.
Valuation and view:
We believe strong summer, along with the focus on
advertisement, will drive superior performance at MANB. Demand continues to
be strong in the fruit drinks category. However, on account of capacity delay of
the fourth plant, we cut earnings estimates by 19% for FY19. The company’s
presence in low-ASP/SKU products, addition of new capacities and foray into
newer geographies provide comfort. Also, the planned advertisement
campaign for Fruits Up should complement its recent Fruits Up capacity
addition at Ambala. Thus, we expect a robust revenue and PAT CAGR of 45%
and 52%, respectively, over FY16-19E. We value the stock at a P/E of 27x FY19E
EPS, with a target price of INR841 (20% upside). Reiterate
Buy.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1535
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1554

Manpasand Beverages
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Revenues to post 45% CAGR over FY16–19E
Revenues (INR m)
180%
Growth (%)
Exhibit 2: Increasing contribution from Fruits Up brand
Mango SIP
Fruits up
12
19
2,943
857
FY12
2,398
FY13
23%
FY14
3,598
22%
55%
5,567
37%
50%
48%
100
100
100
88
81
7,613 11,449 16,922
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY15
FY16
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3: Margins to remain stable
EBITDA (INR m)
16.3% 16.1% 15.5%
17.8%
Margins (%)
19.8% 19.5% 19.8% 20.0%
Exhibit 4: PAT to post 52% CAGR over FY16–19E
268%
PAT (INR m)
Growth (%)
46%
-8%
140
FY12
387
FY13
457
FY14
641
FY15
1,104
FY16
1,485
2,267
3,384
61
FY12
224
FY13
205
FY14
300
FY15
69%
50%
760
65%
42%
1,779
506
FY16
1,257
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5: Utilizations to grow on expanded capacities
Capacity (cases/day,'000)
63%
53%
55%
55%
52%
Utilisation (%)
49%
51%
Exhibit 6: RoCE softened due to fund raising in FY17
RoCE
24.3%
20.5%
18.2%
16.5%
12.2%
8.7%
10.4%
15.2%
35
FY13
56.7
FY14
72.5
FY15
125
FY16
177.5
FY17E
277.5
FY18E
377.5
FY19E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
9 May 2017
2

Manpasand Beverages
Exhibit 7: Key assumptions (INR m)
FY13
Installed Capacity cases per day
Tetra Pak Case - Fruit Drinks
Pet Bottle Case - Fruit Drinks
Pet Bottle Case - Carbonates
Total
Revenues Gross (INR m)
Fruit Drinks
Carbonates
Others
Revenue Growth (%)
Fruit Drinks
Carbonates
19,750
15,250
-
35000
2,396
2,345
-
52
180%
174%
FY14
26,667
30,000
-
56667
2,932
2,850
-
81
22%
22%
FY15
30,000
32,500
10,000
72500
3,597
3,332
113
153
23%
17%
FY16
40,000
67,500
17,500
125,000
5,567
5,233
334
-
55%
57%
196%
FY17E
50,000
85,000
42,500
177,500
7,763
6,843
845
75
39%
31%
153%
FY18E
50,000
135,000
92,500
277,500
11,673
9,592
1,881
200
50%
40%
123%
FY19E
50,000
185,000
142,500
377,500
17,254
13,697
3,257
300
48%
43%
73%
Source: Company, MOSL
9 May 2017
3

Manpasand Beverages
Financials and Valuations
Standalone - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Current Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY13
2,398
180.0
387
16.1
102
286
43
3
246
0
246
25
-2
9.1
224
224
268.1
9.3
FY14
2,943
22.7
457
15.5
149
308
77
1
231
0
231
24
2
11.5
205
205
-8.5
7.0
FY15
3,598
22.2
641
17.8
205
436
107
4
334
0
334
36
-2
10.2
300
300
46.2
8.3
FY16
5,567
54.7
1,104
19.8
571
533
57
91
568
0
568
61
1
10.9
506
506
68.8
9.1
FY17E
7,613
36.8
1,485
19.5
750
734
10
130
854
0
854
94
0
11.0
760
760
50.3
10.0
FY18E
11,449
50.4
2,267
19.8
1,055
1,212
0
200
1,412
0
1,412
155
0
11.0
1,257
1,257
65.3
11.0
(INR Million)
FY19E
16,922
47.8
3,384
20.0
1,535
1,849
0
150
1,999
0
1,999
220
0
11.0
1,779
1,779
41.6
10.5
Standalone - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
FY13
25
722
756
0
548
1,304
927
0
927
0
2
707
207
326
56
118
334
184
95
56
373
2
1,304
FY14
25
923
957
1
743
1,701
1,213
294
919
0
2
1,036
416
478
47
95
257
176
56
26
779
1
1,701
FY15
376
1,534
1,909
0
1,179
3,088
1,345
499
847
1,316
0
1,341
424
593
43
280
417
225
95
98
924
1
3,088
FY16
501
5,515
6,016
0
0
6,016
3,732
1,049
2,684
1,339
6
2,579
704
678
928
270
593
463
117
13
1,986
1
6,016
FY17E
571
11,049
11,621
0
0
11,621
5,532
1,799
3,733
1,200
6
7,739
1,007
1,043
5,384
305
1,058
672
228
158
6,681
1
11,621
FY18E
571
11,990
12,561
0
0
12,561
11,532
2,853
8,679
1,200
6
4,345
1,509
1,568
810
458
1,670
1,006
343
320
2,675
1
12,561
(INR Million)
FY19E
571
13,235
13,806
0
0
13,806
13,032
4,389
8,643
1,200
6
6,484
2,225
2,411
1,171
677
2,529
1,484
508
537
3,956
1
13,806
9 May 2017
4

Manpasand Beverages
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Working Cap. Turnover (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Debt/Equity
FY13
6.0
8.7
20.1
0.1
1.7
FY14
5.5
9.4
25.5
0.1
1.9
128.0
74.1
27.4
9.1
58.9
0.0
-3.3
21.2
18.2
18.8
1.7
52
58
22
91
4.0
4.0
0.8
FY15
8.0
13.4
50.8
1.3
19.7
87.5
51.9
13.7
7.6
42.6
0.2
-28.2
18.8
16.5
23.2
1.2
43
59
23
89
3.2
4.1
0.6
FY16
10.1
21.5
120.2
1.0
12.2
69.1
32.4
5.8
6.1
30.8
0.1
-30.8
11.4
12.2
17.4
0.9
46
44
30
69
4.3
9.3
0.0
FY17E
13.3
26.4
203.4
2.3
20.4
52.5
26.4
3.4
4.5
23.2
0.3
-8.9
7.7
8.7
14.9
0.7
48
49
32
62
7.3
-
0.0
FY18E
22.0
40.5
219.8
4.6
25.2
31.7
17.3
3.2
3.4
17.2
0.7
-78.0
9.3
10.4
13.9
0.9
48
49
32
59
2.6
-
0.0
FY19E
31.1
58.0
241.6
7.8
30.0
22.4
12.0
2.9
2.3
11.4
1.1
13.0
13.5
15.2
15.0
1.2
48
51
32
60
2.6
-
0.0
0.0
-6.2
31.5
24.3
26.0
1.8
32
49
28
48
2.1
6.7
0.7
Standalone - Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
FY13
247
102
40
-61
-13
314
5
319
-553
-234
60
1
-492
0
230
-43
0
0
187
15
41
56
FY14
232
149
77
-28
-412
17
6
23
-147
-124
0
1
-146
0
195
-77
0
-4
114
-9
56
47
FY15
333
205
102
-55
-65
521
6
527
-1,586
-1,059
0
4
-1,582
263
436
-101
-4
458
1,051
-4
47
43
FY16
567
571
-34
-154
-188
763
13
776
-2,316
-1,540
-6
72
-2,250
4,000
-1,179
-63
-110
-289
2,359
885
43
928
FY17E
854
750
-120
-94
-239
1,152
0
1,152
-1,661
-509
0
130
-1,531
5,000
0
-10
-155
0
4,835
4,456
928
5,384
(INR Million)
FY18E
1,412
1,055
-200
-155
-569
1,542
0
1,542
-6,000
-4,458
0
200
-5,800
0
0
0
-317
0
-317
-4,574
5,384
810
FY19E
1,999
1,664
-150
-220
-919
2,375
-129
2,246
-1,500
746
0
150
-1,350
0
0
0
-534
0
-534
362
810
1,171
9 May 2017
5

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Manpasand Beverages
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
Served as an officer, director or employee -
No
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232
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MANPASAND BEVERAGES
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
9 May 2017
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
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