Sector Update | Utilities
Power monthly
April 2017: Generation up 3.8% YoY
Seasonal uptick in IEX prices
Conventional generation
Conv. generation - BU
daily avg. yoy - %
Conventional generation up 3.8% YoY in April
Conventional electricity generation grew 3.8% YoY in April 2017, encouraging as
it comes off a strong base of 14.7% YoY growth in April 2016.
Coal-based generation grew at a slower pace of 2.4% YoY, as hydro generation
grew 30.9% YoY. Hydro is typically cheaper and gets preference in merit order.
Private coal-based plants gained share, as generation grew 5.1% YoY.
Generation at central coal-based plants grew 2.1% YoY while for states declined
0.4% YoY. NTPC’s standalone coal-based plants generation grew 2.3% YoY.
RE generation grew 13.1% YoY in March 2017 (latest data). Solar led with a
growth of 72.8% YoY.
For FY17, RE generation grew 25% YoY, representing 6.7% share of all-India
generation (up 102bps YoY). Solar grew 82.5% YoY while wind grew 39.3% YoY.
Including RE all-India generation grew 5.8% YoY in FY17.
There was 12.9GW of conventional generation capacity added in FY17, sharply
lower than ~23GW added in FY16. Capacity addition was the lowest in five-
years, and has peaked-out in our view.
All-India conventional capacity PLF increased by 33bps YoY to 53%. Coal-based
plants PLF declined by 46bps YoY to 62%.
RE capacity stood at 57GW by end of FY17, up 14GW YoY.
Regionally, northern region drove electricity consumption in March 2017.
Punjab (16.6% YoY), UP (16.5% YoY) and Haryana (10.5% YoY) were high growing
states. Consumption was also strong in Telangana (22.7% YoY) and Karnataka
(9.2% YoY)
For FY17, UP (13.5% YoY) and Karnataka (9.7% YoY) saw the highest growth in
consumption.
IEX all-India prices increased 8.1% MoM to INR2.77/kWh in April 2017, a
seasonal pattern. Prices are however down 4.7% YoY on supply. Prices in
southern region remain at premium to rest of India due to grid constraints.
IEX volumes grew 7% YoY in April. Southern region volumes were up 65% YoY.
Strong growth in RE generation, led by solar
Capacity addition at five-year low
Northern region drives demand in March 2017
IEX prices
IEX avg. price - INR/kWh
change yoy - %
IEX: seasonal uptick in prices; South driving volumes
Private plants: Dhariwal and Vijaynagar PLFs improve in April 2017
CESC:
Dhariwal’s PLF was at ~47% as the PPA capacity of 300MW operates at full
capacity (remaining 300MW was unutilized).
JSW Energy:
Vijaynagar’s PLF improved to 81% from v/s. 60% avg. for FY17 on
short-term contract with Karnataka.
Rattan India:
Amravati operated at 52% PLF due to shutdown at some of state-
owned plants and improved demand.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
8 August 2016
1
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@motilaloswal.com@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@motilaloswal.com@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033

Utilities
Conventional electricity
generation increased by
3.8% YoY in April 2017
Generation in April 2017
Conventional generation increased by 3.8%, led by hydro
Exhibit 1: All-India conventional electricity generation
Conventional generation - BU
change yoy - %
13
4
6
0
5
7
1
6 8 6
16
12
5
12
7
12 13
4
14
10
5 3
6
2
6
-1
1
4
6
12
9
1
3
7
10
12
15
5
8
2 0 2 1
9
6
4
6
0
4
Source: MOSL, CEA
Exhibit 2: Conventional electricity generation by fuel source
Increase in generation was
led by Hydro, growing ~31%
YoY to 10BU. Coal based
generation increased by
2.4% YoY to 82.6BU. Gas
based generation declined
8.4% YoY to 3.8B
Monthly
Apr-17
YoY %
Thermal
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Coal
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Lignite
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Gas
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Others
Generation
Capacity
Hydro
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Nuclear
Generation
PLF
Capacity
All India (conventional)
Generation
PLF
Capacity
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
89,611
57
218,149
82,617
62
185,617
3,164
69
6,360
3,822
21
25,275
8
898
10,229
32
44,594
3,183
65
6,780
103,024
53
268,219
1.7
-86bps
3.2
2.4
-46bps
3.1
0.2
8.5
-8.4
-270bps
3.4
-86.2
-8.3
30.9
651bps
4.2
-3.1
17.3
3.8
33bps
3.2
FY16
943,788
62
210,834
862,015
62
179,467
34,244
67
5,860
47,122
22
24,454
406
994
121,377
32
42,801
37,414
73
5,780
1,102,578
48
259,416
FY17
994,230
60
217,460
910,128
60
184,847
34,973
67
6,360
49,057
23
25,275
264
979
122,378
31
44,478
37,932
74
6,780
1,153,850
49
268,219
YoY %
5.3
-251bps
3.1
5.6
-261bps
3.0
2.1
66bps
8.5
4.1
32bps
3.4
-35.0
-1.5
0.8
-88bps
3.9
1.4
85bps
17.3
4.7
72bps
3.4
Source: CEA
All-India PLF stood at 53%,
up 33bps YoY in April. Coal
based plants PLFs stood at
62%, down 46bps YoY.
9 May 2017
2

Utilities
Exhibit 3: Conventional electricity generation by ownership - MU
Central
Thermal
Coal
Gas
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
State
Thermal
Coal
Gas
Other
Hydro
Private
Thermal
Coal
Gas
Other
Hydro
Total
NTPC coal (s/a)
Private share %
Monthly
Apr-17
37,395
29,467
25,990
1,478
1,999
4,745
3,183
32,090
27,557
26,054
1,232
270
4,533
33,539
32,588
30,573
1,112
903
951
103,024
20,625
32.6
YoY %
4.3
1.7
2.1
-12.4
9.6
31.9
-3.1
1.8
-0.9
-0.4
-3.0
-25.3
21.8
5.4
4.0
5.1
-8.5
-12.5
93.5
3.8
2.3
48bps
FY17
433,578
337,799
296,919
19,967
20,914
57,870
37,908
350,772
299,436
281,356
14,863
3,217
51,336
370,068
356,944
331,791
14,250
10,903
13,124
1,154,419
215,704
32.1
YoY %
5.9
7.2
6.1
23.0
9.2
2.1
1.3
1.7
2.6
2.9
0.7
-11.9
-3.4
6.3
6.0
7.3
-11.6
-5.1
13.8
4.7
3.0
47bps
Source: CEA
Private sector coal based
generation gained share in
April 2017. It increased
5.1% YoY against central
sector increase of 2.1% YoY
and state sector decline of
0.4% YoY.
NTPC’s S/A coal-based
increased 2.3% YoY in April
2047.
All-India generation
(conventional+RE) grew by
5.8% YoY to 1,236BU. RE
share increased by 102bps
YoY to 6.7%.
Exhibit 4: All-India generation (Conventional + RE)
Monthly
Mar-17
107,647
5,957
101,690
5.5
11.6
YoY %
5.8
13.1
5.4
35bps
FY17
1,236,078
82,228
1,153,850
6.7
24.3
YoY %
5.8
25.0
4.7
102bps
All-India
RE
Conventional
RE share %
RE incr. share %
Source: MOSL, Company
Capacity addition: 12.9GW in FY17
Exhibit 5: Capacity addition as monitored by CEA
Month
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Promoter
Namrup
Sikkim
NagarJuna Sagar
Sembcorp Gayatri
Rattan India
Teesta
Chanju
NTPC
NTPC
NTPC
BECL
NTPC
Karnataka
NTPC
NPCL
Plant
Namrup
Teesta-III
NagarJuna Sagar
NCC
Nasik
Teesta-III
Chanju-I
Mauda-II
Bongaigaon
Kudgi
Bhavnagar
Kanti
Yermarus
Unchahar
Kundankulam
Unit
U-1
U1-6
U1-2
U-2
U-2
U-4
U1-2
U-4
U-2
U-2
U-2
U-5
U-2
U-6
U-2
Type
Thermal
Hydro
Hydro
Thermal
Thermal
Hydro
Hydro
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Nuclear
Capacity MW Location (State)
62
Others
1,000
Sikkim
50
Telangana
660
Telangana
270
Maharashtra
200
Sikkim
24
Sikkim
660
Maharashtra
250
Assam
800
Karnataka
250
Gujarat
195
Bihar
800
Karnataka
500
Uttar Pradesh
1,000
Tamil Nadu
Source: MOSL, Company
9 May 2017
3

Utilities
Demand by states – March 2017
Northern region drives demand growth in March 2017
Exhibit 6: Electricity demand by states
Chandigarh
Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Northern Region
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Daman and Diu
Dadra and Nagar Haveli
Goa
Western Region
Andhra Pradesh
Telangana
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil nadu
Puducherry
Lakshadweep
Southern Region
Bihar
DVC
Jharkhand
Odisha
West Bengal
Sikkim
Andaman And Nicobar
Eastern region
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Tripura
North Eastern Region
All India
Mar-17
104
1,964
3,571
748
1,307
3,361
5,545
8,751
1,049
26,400
2,122
9,340
5,363
12,746
188
469
343
30,571
5,060
5,538
6,738
2,168
9,111
214
4
28,833
1,982
1,799
676
2,331
3,851
53
15
10,707
62
654
66
207
44
56
88
1,177
97,688
YoY %
2.0
1.9
10.5
3.3
4.0
16.6
-1.3
16.5
6.5
8.9
-7.6
2.8
-0.6
0.4
-4.6
-9.6
-19.7
-0.2
5.6
22.7
9.2
-5.7
-4.3
-4.5
0.0
4.8
-3.7
19.7
1.7
-2.6
-12.9
32.5
0.0
-3.5
1.6
-2.1
-4.3
44.8
7.3
-8.2
-26.7
1.2
3.2
Mar-17
1,645
30,796
48,896
8,785
14,194
53,020
67,407
105,568
12,987
343,298
23,290
103,705
65,959
139,353
2,385
6,029
4,438
345,159
54,303
53,129
66,855
24,152
104,129
2,526
48
305,142
25,132
18,707
7,899
26,672
48,066
479
180
127,135
708
8,742
736
1,772
499
730
1,491
14,678
1,135,412
YTD YoY %
2.4
4.1
3.1
0.3
1.1
6.7
0.3
13.5
2.5
6.0
-8.0
0.2
6.7
-1.4
2.1
1.8
-13.3
-0.1
7.8
6.4
9.7
4.1
7.8
4.0
0.0
7.6
6.2
2.6
4.5
0.3
1.8
20.1
0.0
2.7
19.8
5.7
-9.1
2.7
9.7
-1.2
30.1
6.8
4.1
Source: MOSL, CEA
9 May 2017
4

Utilities
PLFs and incentives
CESC’s Dhariwal ramp-ups; JSWE Vijaynagar PLFs improve
Exhibit 7: PLFs (%) for private power plants with exposure to merchant market
MW
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16
Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
66
41
74
34
21
67
61
50
31
48
62
45
31
42
0
0
62
38
19
46
69
91
40
20
34
62
26
59
24
16
39
49
51
30
58
42
44
30
35
0
0
70
40
0
55
67
72
36
17
36
70
63
80
31
14
32
63
46
31
20
65
68
29
22
0
0
71
54
0
35
69
62
34
3
36
89
86
86
28
14
33
78
46
31
42
60
81
31
25
0
0
50
59
0
22
75
91
31
0
55
70
84
63
30
15
59
90
61
33
34
37
92
23
29
0
0
66
17
8
39
71
96
71
10
69
88
47
81
47
48
73
81
91
38
62
88
83
26
70
0
0
82
41
52
59
78
95
67
6
44
Source: CEA
Adani Power
67
76
67
3
0
76
5
Avantha
600
71
73
79
79
69
85
65
Mundra
4,620
75
34
16
61
51
75
81
Tirora
3,300
CESC
34
31
26
25
28
32
29
Dhariwal
600
JSW Energy
22
75
108
106
98
73
34
Karcham
1,000
87
94
69
70
72
69
71
Ratnagiri
1,200
100
90
32
20
27
46
50
Vijaynagar
860
Jindal Power
65
45
42
47
49
30
56
Tamnar 1
1,000
29
22
31
30
29
57
30
Tamnar 2
2,400
JP Power
0
2
0
0
0
15
5
Bina
500
74
73
79
50
64
77
72
Nigri
1,320
KSK
85
60
69
57
71
62
37
Akaltara
2,400
35
22
30
25
34
31
32
Wardha
540
Torrent Power
49
63
70
59
55
62
57
Sugen
1,148
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Unosugen
383
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DGEN
1,200
Essar
1
55
48
63
29
38
47
Mahan
600
60
69
64
50
42
51
52
Salaya
600
Rattan India
50
42
51
0
0
7
5
Amravati
1,350
Vedanta
42
30
42
34
40
32
47
Sterlite
600
76
51
60
59
53
50
30
Balco
600
South plants
55
66
87
82
89
69
81
Powertech
1,320
94
49
85
51
58
42
38
Meenakshi
300
84
82
29
27
33
28
34
Simhapuri
600
0
25
47
62
68
27
36
Hinduja
1,040
Green represents positive change YoY while Red represents a negative change YoY
9 May 2017
5

Utilities
Short-term power market
Seasonal uptick in prices; South continues to drive volumes
Volumes were up ~7% YoY
in April.
Exhibit 8: IEX cleared volumes and growth yoy
Cleared vols. - BU
change yoy - %
42
29
1
25
24
1411
15
10
24
1
2
7
0
0
-11 -14 -10 -7
6
23
18
-6
26
16
9 11
37 393541
28 25
4
10
4
9 7
-6
-17
Southern region continues
to drive volumes, as growth
accelerates to 65% YoY in
April. Ex-South the growth
remains tepid.
Exhibit 9: IEX southern region cleared volumes and growth yoy
South vols. - MU
800
600
400
200
0
change yoy - %
System prices were up 8%
MoM to INR2.77/kWh, a
seasonal pattern. Prices in
south were up 10% QoQ to
INR3.15/kWh.
Exhibit 10: IEX prices – INR/kWh
W1
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
S1
Source: MOSL, IEX
Exhibit 11: All-India IEX prices trend – INR/kWh
FY14
5.0
4.3
3.5
2.8
2.0
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Exhibit 12: South IEX prices trend – INR/kWh
FY14
9.5
8.0
6.5
5.0
3.5
2.0
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Source: MOSL, IEX
Source: MOSL, IEX
9 May 2017
6

Utilities
Annexures
Exhibit 13: Transmission lines commissioned by Power Grid
Month
Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
May-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Line
LILO of Gaya - Varanasi line
LILO of Kadapa (Cuddapah) - Kolar at N.P. Kunta
LILO of Pune - Aurangabad at pune (GIS)
Lara STPS- Raigarh (Kotra) line
Panchkula- Patiala
LILO of Meerut - Kaithal at Baghpat (Ckt-II)
Roorkee - Saharanpur line (Quad) (Ckt-I)
Kanpur - Jhatikara
Varanasi- Kanpur
Jharkhand Pool (Chandwa)-Gaya (Quad) line
Kanpur - (new)- Kanpur (exit)
Baripada- Mendhasal at Pindiabil
Ranchi - Jharkhand Pool Line (Chandwa)
Roorkee- Saharanpur line (Ckt-II)
LILO OF GLADNI- Hiranagar at Sambha
LILO - IN Teesta- III- kishanganj at Rangoo
Line for swapping of Purnea bay with Sasaram bay at Biharshariff
Betul - khandwa (Quad) line
Khanwada - Indore line
Meja- Allahabad line
Sasaram-Allahbad line
Champa Pooling Station- Kurukshetra (HVDC) BIOPOLE Line
Jaipur (RVPNL) - Bhiwani (Iind Ckt) line
Srikakulam PP- Vemagiri- II Pooling Station (Vizag TL)
Essar Gujarat TPS - Bachau (Tripal)
LILO of one RAPP - Kankorli at Chittorgarh
Unchahar - Fatehpur line (Powergird Unchahar TL)
Nagapattinam Pooling Station - Salem (NMTCL)
Varanasi- Sarnath (Q)
Tuticorin Pooling Station- Salem Pooling Station
Srikakulam Pooling Station - Angul line
LILO of Gazuwaka- Vijaywada 400kv S/C line at vemagiri PS
Navsari -Boisor line (Balance portion)
LILO of existing Seoni -Bina at Gadawara STPP
Dehradun-Bagpat line(Q)
Sikar-Jaipur line
Parbati Pooling Station - Amritsar at Jalandhar
LILO of Bishwanath Chariali - Agra at Alipurduar
Raipur Pooling station - Wardha line -II
Wardha - Nizamabad line (Part of Wardha - Hyderabad line)
Farakka-Gokarna Portion of Raharhat-Purnea Lin
LILO of Bongaigaon - Siliguri at Alipurduar
LILO of Dadri - Malerkotla at Kaithal
Nizamabad Dichpalli line -Ckt-I
LILO of Birpara - Salakati line at Alipurduar (New Pooling Station)
Voltage
765
400
400
400
400
400
400
765
765
765
400
400
400
400
220
400
400
400
400
400
400
800
765
765
400
400
400
765
400
765
765
400
400
765
400
400
400
800
765
765
400
400
400
400
220
Type
Length
S/C
273
D/C
21
2XD/C
58
D/C
36
D/C
131
D/C
61
D/C
37
S/C
466
D/C
652
D/C
234
D/C
41
2xD/C
112
D/C
138
D/C
37
D/C
28
MC+D/C
21
D/C
10
D/C
338
D/C
344
D/C
56
D/C
6
BIOPOLE
2574
S/C
277
D/C
668
D/C
446
D/C
28
D/C
107
D/C
406
D/C
213
D/C
731
D/C
552
D/C
38
D/C
161
D/C
16
D/C
330
D/C
339
D/C
34
HVDC
5
D/C
13
D/C
50
D/C
9
D/C
714
D/C
576
D/C
238
D/C
44
Source: MOSL, Company
9 May 2017
7

Utilities
Exhibit 14: Substations commissioned by Power Grid
Month
Apr-16
Apr-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Jul-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Substation
Mandola S/s (Aug.) ICT-II(Replacing 315 MVA with 500 MVA ICT
N.P. Kunta Pooling Station S/S (ICT-I)
Balipara (2nd Ckt)
Mandola S/s (Aug.) ICT-III (Replacement of 315 MVA by 500 MVA)
Saharanpur S/S
Pune (GIS) S/S
Bagpat (ICT-II) S/S
Julandhar (Extn.)
Pandiabil S/S (ICT-I & II)
Karupur (GIS) S/S
Jharkhand Pool (Chandwa) Switching GIS
N.P. Kunta Pooling Station S/S (ICT-II)
Biswanath Chariyali & Agra HVDC terminal (Pole-II)
Somanahalli S/S
Champa Pooling Station (ICT-III &IV)
Ballabhgarh s/s (Replacement of ICT-I & ICT-II)
Baraipada (Addl.)
Extn. At Mysore S/S
Kishanganj S/S (ICT-II)
Maithon S/S (Replacement of ICT-I) (500-315)
Patna (Replacement of ICT-I) (500-315)
Purnea S/S (Replacement of ICT-II) (300-315)
Mondala s/s (Aug) ICT -IV (replacing 315 MVA with 500 ICT)
Samba ( Extn.) S/S
Extn at 400/220 KV Damoh S/S
Champa Pooling Station (ICT-V &VI)
Extn. At Madurai s/s
Vemagiri Pooling Station (ICT-1)
Dehar s/s (Replacement)
Dehradun
Hyderabad S/s
Alipurduar & Agra (Extn.) HVDC
Champa & Kurukshetra HVDC s/s (Pole-1)
Extn. Raigarh S/S
Nizamabad Sub station (ICT-I)
Raipur (Extn.)
Vemagiri PS (ICTII)
Aug. Vijayawada s/s
Aug. at Pugalur s/s
Type
400/220
400/220
400/220
400/220
400/220
765/400
400/220
400/220
400/220
765/400
400
400/220
800
400/200
765/400
400/220
400/220
400/220
400/220/33
400/220
400/220
400/220
400/220
400/220
400/220
765/400
400/220
765/400
400/220
400/220
400/220
800
800
765/400
765/400
765/400
765/400
400/220
400/220
Capacity
185
500
315
185
630
3,000
500
1,000
1,000
3,000
0
1,000
1,500
500
3,000
370
500
500
500
185
185
185
185
315
500
3,000
500
630
1,500
65
500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
500
500
1,500
1,500
Source: MOSL, Company
9 May 2017
8

Utilities
NOTES
9 May 2017
9

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Utilities
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