10 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Buy
BSE SENSEX
30,248
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,407
BHARTI IN
Well invested, poised for growth
3,997.3
1,490.2 / 23.1
Better cost management in a tough operating environment
401 / 284
Consol. EBITDA drops 7% QoQ, but 3% above estimate:
Consol. revenue fell 6%
6/11/-16
QoQ (-12.1% YoY) to INR219.3b, while consol. EBITDA declined 7.3% QoQ (-13.7
1335
YoY) to INR78.6b (3% above estimate). RJio’s free usage plan led to a drop of
32.9
CMP: INR373
TP: INR430 (+15%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
FY17 FY18E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
954.7 943.6
EBITDA
353.3 326.8
NP
44.4
25.1
EPS (INR)
11.1
6.3
EPS Gr. (%)
-6.4
-43.4
BV/Sh. (INR)
168.8 173.8
RoE (%)
6.7
3.7
RoCE (%)
5.4
4.8
P/E (x)
33.5
59.3
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.1
FY19E
1,043.1
371.9
45.8
11.5
82.4
184.1
6.4
5.6
32.5
2.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
6%/10% QoQ in India wireless revenue/EBITDA to INR129.7b/INR47.9b. India
EBITDA was 7% above estimate due to lower discretionary cost. Despite Africa
revenue declining 6% QoQ to INR50.5b, EBITDA grew 6% (4.7% beat) led by cost
efficiencies. PAT fell 30% QoQ (-69% YoY) to INR4.7b on lower EBITDA. For FY17,
consol. EBITDA rose 4% YoY to INR353b, led by 4% growth in India wireless EBITDA.
Lower-than-expected decline in data revenue:
Data revenue saw a lower-than-
anticipated decline of 11% QoQ (7% beat), as volumes partly offset the 32% data
price decline. Overall India wireless ARPU declined 8%/19% QoQ/YoY to INR158.
Voice revenue fell 4.8% QoQ to INR92.5b (1% below estimate). Voice traffic grew
15% QoQ to 330b min, led by higher incoming traffic from RJio. This impacted India
voice RPM, which declined by a steep 17% QoQ to INR0.243/min.
Huge capacity build-up, getting ready to capture growth avenues:
With huge
spectrum and network investment, Bharti’s focus is to create ample data capacity to
match RJio’s offerings. Management highlighted its focus on improving the data
market share (currently at ~35%), and aims to be the key beneficiary of market
disruption. As competitive intensity bottoms out in 3-4 quarters, long-term ARPU
accretion should bode well for Bharti.
Maintain Buy with a revised TP of INR430:
We broadly maintain our EBITDA
estimate, factoring in a 7% decline in FY18 and 14% growth recovery in FY19. We
believe that as the market bottoms out in next 3-4 quarters, the stock can provide
8-10% FCF yield on 15% rise in EBITDA and annual capex reduction of 10%. Maintain
Buy
with a revised TP of INR430, based on our SOTP valuation, assigning 8x to India
ex-tower, 3x to Africa business and 15% discount to our Bharti Infratel’s valuations.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 3982 5423
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1546