HCL Technologies
BSE SENSEX
30,251
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,422
HCLT IN
1,427
Advantage ceding as organic growth aligns with industry
1,196.9/18.6
890/707
FY17 – mixed year ended on a stable note:
FY17 revenue grew 13.7% CC, of
which organic CC growth was ~8.7%, as per our calculations. EBIT margin of
-2/-3/0
20.3% expanded 20bp YoY, and net income of USD1,216.5m (adjusted for
1600
one-time tax reversal) rose 8.9% YoY. 4Q organic CC revenue growth of 1.3%
40.3
11 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR839 TP: INR960(+15%)
Growth woes catch up
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
467.2
512.1
Net Sales
103.1
109.5
EBITDA
84.6
85.4
PAT
59.8
61.9
EPS (INR)
49.2
3.3
Gr. (%)
239.0
241.7
BV/Sh (INR)
27.5
25.4
RoE (%)
25.3
23.3
RoCE (%)
14.0
13.6
P/E (x)
3.5
3.5
P/BV (x)
2019E
561.8
119.9
93.6
67.6
9.3
270.3
26.0
24.0
12.4
3.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
QoQ was in line with our estimate of +1%, and including acquisition
contributions, it was 3.8% QoQ CC. EBIT margin at 20% was in line, and net
income fell 2.2% QoQ to INR20b, a shade above our estimate of INR19.7b.
FY18 – organic revenue guidance is a dampener:
For FY18, HCLT guided for
revenue growth of 10.5-12.5% (CQGR of 1.85-2.6%). This was lower than our
estimate of 12-14%, which embedded ~4.5pp from acquisitions and 7.5-9.5%
organic. However, HCLT’s lower guidance came after two incremental
contributors (UFS and another IBM partnership). Factoring these, organic
growth guidance works out to ~5.5-7.5%. It retained the margin band
outlook of 19.5-20.5%, which we note, includes a fairly benign amortization
schedule of 15 years for USD600m + investments in IPRs licensed from IBM.
Watch out for trend in IMS and ER&D:
Adjusted for acquisitions, growth
appears to be softening further in IMS, which management attributed to
some ramp-up delays. Organically even ER&D services seem to be cooling
off, barring one quarter that saw some spurt in the last year and a half. The
two segments contribute ~59% to HCLT’s revenues and are the company’s
competitive edge in the industry. Failure to reverse the trend will put at risk
our thesis of growth visibility proposition at HCLT.
Valuation view:
After moderating our FY19 revenue estimate by 2% and
FY18/19 earnings estimates by 3.8% each (stronger INR), we expect USD
revenue CAGR of 9.4% and earnings CAGR of 8.2% over FY17-19. The stock
trades at 13.6/12.4x FY18/19E EPS. Our price target of INR960 discounts
FY19E earnings by 14x, implying 15% upside. While we remain
Buy
on
depressed valuations, triggers in the near term are limited. Any potential
surprise from a series of new investments in last few years will have some
gestation, if we were to go by the company’s FY18 revenue guidance.
FY17
1Q
2Q
3Q
1,691
1,722
1,745
6.5
1.9
1.4
113,360 115,190 118,140
15.9
14.1
14.2
34.4
33.6
33.9
12.1
11.8
11.7
25,210 25,110
26,280
22.2
21.8
22.2
20.6
20.1
20.4
2,530
2,350
2,310
21.0
21.1
21.5
20,430 20,150
20,710
6.1
-1.4
2.8
14.6
10.5
7.9
14.5
14.3
14.7
FY16*
4Q
1,817
4.1
120,530
12.7
33.7
11.8
26,490
22.0
20.0
2,150
11.5
20,250
-2.2
5.2
16.5
4,698
7.1
311,360
14.6
34.6
12.7
68,150
21.9
20.5
7,960
20.9
56,670
4.0
40.1
FY17E
6,975
11.9
467,220
14.2
33.9
11.8
103,090
22.1
20.3
9,340
18.8
84,570
13.5
59.8
Est.
4QFY17
1,810
0.4
3.7
41bp
120,518
0.0
12.7
1bp
33.4
32bp
11.5
24bp
26,386
0.4
21.9
0.4
20.2
-20bp
713
201.4
21.5 -1001bp
19,706
2.8
-4.8 262bp
2.4 282bp
13.8
(
/ bp)
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E June
Revenue (USD m)
QoQ (%)
Revenue (INR m)
YoY (%)
GPM (%)
SGA (%)
EBITDA (INRm)
EBITDA Margin (%)
EBIT Ma rgi n (%)
Other i ncome
ETR (%)
Adjusted PAT
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
EPS
FY16*
FY15
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
1,538
1,545
1,566
1,587
3.2
0.5
1.4
1.3
97,770 100,970 103,410 106,980
16.1
15.6
11.4
15.4
34.2
34.4
34.6
34.9
12.8
12.5
13.0
12.7
21,000 22,110 22,250 23,790
21.5
21.9
21.5
22.2
20.2
20.6
20.0
20.8
2,120
2,410
3,550
2,000
18.6
21.3
20.9
20.5
17,820 18,230 19,190 19,250
5.8
2.3
5.3
0.3
-2.9
6.1
-0.2
14.3
12.6
12.9
13.6
13.6
*FY16 was a nine month year; Twelve months ended March 2016 are compared with twelve months ended March 2015 to make annual growth comparisons
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531