18 May 2017
Annual Report Update | Sector: Financials
Yes Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
30,435
S&P CNX
9,429
CMP: INR1,401
TP: INR2,110 (+51%)
FY17 annual report analysis: A much stronger liability franchise
Net stress loans at just ~2.2%, despite accounting for divergence
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
YES IN
456.5
1653 / 963
-17/2/26
639.5
9.4
3862
79.8
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E 2019E
NII
58.0
74.8
95.3
OP
58.4
69.7
88.4
NP
33.3
41.3
52.0
NIM (%)
3.4
3.5
3.6
EPS (INR)
73.0
90.5 114.0
EPS Gr. (%)
20.8
24.1
25.9
BV/Sh. (INR)
468.7 540.7 631.5
ABV/Sh. (INR)
453.4 533.7 622.1
RoE (%)
18.9
17.9
19.4
RoA (%)
1.8
1.7
1.8
P/E(X)
19.2
15.5
12.3
P/BV (X)
3.0
2.6
2.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
As On
Promoter
20.2
21.8
21.9
DII
23.3
23.8
24.3
FII
46.7
42.0
41.3
Others
9.9
12.4
12.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Yes Bank
Sensex - Rebased
1,750
1,550
1,350
1,150
950
YES’ annual report analysis (AR) suggests strong performance across parameters in a
period marred by significant economic challenges. Liability franchise has
strengthened significantly, with sustained improvement in CASA ratio to 36.3% (up
820bp), improving deposit concentration ratios, and more favorable ALM profile. This
has also benefitted NIM and increased fee income streams.
The bank has increased its loan market share to 1.7% of the system, while
maintaining strong return ratios – RoA of 1.8% and RoE of 20%. YES is consuming
capital at a fast pace – steep increase in RWA; recent capital raising (INR49b)
provides cushion for future growth.
YES reported ~76bp GNPA for FY16, whereas the RBI estimated 5% GNPA. The
divergence was owing to the fact that while rule-based accounting (90dpd) allows
banks to classify some accounts as standard, RBI may ask banks to classify accounts
with inherent weaknesses as NPAs. From FY17 onwards, reporting of the divergence
is a mandatory disclosure in the AR. Bank has fully accounted for divergences in FY17.
YES remains our top pick among mid-sized private banks, with healthy capitalization
(CET1 of 11.4%), strong capital allocation (best in class RoE), and market-leading
growth rates (expect at least 2x industry growth). We reiterate Buy, with a target
price of INR2,110/share.
Divergences fully accounted for; no recognition impact in ensuing quarters
Of the total divergence of ~INR41.8b reported in the AR, INR10.4b is
outstanding as NPA, with the balance amount repaid, exited, or recovered in
some manner. The bank expects recoveries in one large account amounting to
INR9.1b (part of the o/s INR10.4b NPA).
Large part of the recoveries and upgrades (INR12.2b), and ARC sales (INR9.6b)
was driven by divergence-related accounts. Our analysis suggests that over
INR12b have been repaid in the normal course of business during the year
(INR41.8b divergence = INR10.4b still NPA + INR10b recoveries/upgrades +
INR9b sold to ARC + INR12.4b repaid).
We expect other banks, particularly private corporate lenders, to report
significant divergence in their AR, as well – ICICIBC has reported INR53.8b
(1.2% of loans) and AXSB has reported INR94.8b (2.5% of loans) in their results
conference calls. Even after taking ‘divergence accounts’ into consideration,
YES’ o/s net stress loans stand at 2.2% v/s 8% for ICICIBC and 5% for AXSB.
YES has invested heavily in branches (23% 5-year CAGR), employees (3.5x
increase since FY12), and rollout of complete product suite. Improvement in
productivity is evident, with average SA balance per branch increasing to
INR286m in FY17 v/s INR221m in FY16 and INR58m in FY12.
Resultantly, CASA ratio improved sharply in FY17 (up 820bp) to 36.3% (15% in
FY12), led by robust 61% growth in SA deposits. We believe YES’ customer
strategy of targeting cash rich regions is paying off, given that it has maintained
incremental SA market share of 1.5%+ over the last three years.
Stark improvement in balance sheet granularity
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Subham Banka
(Subham.Banka@MotilalOswal.com); +91 022 6129 1567