29 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
BHEL
Sell
BSE SENSEX
31,109
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,605
BHEL IN
Results below expectations; bleak business outlook warrants Sell
2,447.6
4QFY17 performance disappoints:
Sales for the quarter were muted at
514.0/8.0
INR96.9b (-2.9% YoY), meaningfully below our estimate of INR129.5b. The
183 / 114
revenue decline was led by weak execution in Industrial segment (-21% YoY).
-17/1/3
1112
Power segment sales grew 3% YoY to INR81.1b. EBITDA stood at INR6.5b,
36.9
with the margin of 6.7% coming in below estimate of 11.1% as other
CMP: INR153
TP: INR100 (-35%)
Financials & Valuations(INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
282.2
284.0
EBITDA
11.0
16.9
PAT
5.0
10.7
EPS (INR)
2.0
4.4
Gr. (%)
-169.9
115.4
BV/Sh (INR)
131.9
135.3
RoE (%)
1.5
3.3
RoCE (%)
0.5
2.1
P/E (x)
74.0
34.4
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.1
2019E
317.0
19.9
12.1
5.0
13.5
139.1
3.6
2.6
30.3
3.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Sales (Net)
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
As a % Sales
Interest
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
1Q
43,617
-15.0
-2,093
-196.1
-4.9
33
2,425
4,924
373
34
9.1
339
-82.5
339
-82.5
expenses increased 61% YoY to INR26.6b due to wage hike of INR9.6b
(INR6.7b gratuity/leave liability, and INR2.9b wage hike). PAT declined 57%
YoY to INR2.1b (est. of INR10.8b). For FY17, revenue stood at INR282b (+11%
YoY), EBIDTA at INR11b and PAT at INR4.9b.
Gross margin expanded 910bp YoY and 770bp QoQ to 45.1%,
led by a)
better product mix, b) cost-saving measures and c) expansion of vendor
base. According to management, margins would moderate in FY18 and are
not sustainable at 4QFY17 levels.
L1 in 2.6GW of orders; slow-moving orders at INR390b.
BHEL is L1 in 2.6GW
of orders, marking a decline from 6GW in 3QFY17, due to finalization of the
Maitree project (1,320MW) and the lift irrigation project (2,610MW). Order
book stands at INR1050b, of which ~37% is slow-moving. Of the slow-
moving orders, BHEL expects projects worth INR180b to start moving over in
the coming months.
MoU target of INR315b revenue for FY18:
BHEL has set an MoU target of
revenue of INR3,15b for FY18 to achieve excellent rating and INR310b to
achieve very good rating.
Maintain Sell:
We cut estimates for FY18/FY19 by 23%/15% to factor in
constrained execution of order backlog, given that 37% of the order book is
slow-moving. We maintain
Sell,
given a) likelihood of execution remaining
constrained, b) weak order pipeline for FY18/FY19 and c) continued pressure
on margins due to execution of JDU projects and intense competition. We
scale down our TP to INR100 (P/E of 20x FY19E; earlier INR115).
1Q
56,225
28.9
710
-133.9
1.3
57
2,182
2,493
965
188
19.4
778
129.5
778
129.5
FY17
FY16
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
66,645 63,254 129,461 256,300 315,585
12.2
18.7
29.4
-15.1
23.1
1,551
2,239 14,391 -19,597 18,891
-135.4 -113.9
295.6 -193.4 -196.4
2.3
3.5
11.1
-7.6
6.0
50
263
198
268
568
2,080
2,088
3,605
9,356
9,955
1,961
1,358
4,652 14,501
2,899
1,382
1,245 15,239 -14,721 18,832
292
310
4,484 -5,633
5,273
21.1
24.9
29.4
38.3
28.0
1,090
935 10,756 -9,088 13,559
-160.3 -108.6
199.1 -164.0 -249.2
1,090
935 10,756 -9,088 13,559
-160.3 -108.6
194.3 -163.6 -249.2
Est
3QE
60,500
13.6
-7,500
-54
-12.4
55
2,500
1,800
-8,255
-1,500
18
-6,755
-39
-6,755
-39
FY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
59,380 53,272 100,048
-3.4
-14.0
-21.1
-4,379 -16,120
3,638
-250.2 -648.7
-78.4
-7.4
-30.3
3.6
44
52
140
2,249
2,255
2,428
3,739
1,708
4,139
-2,933 -16,719
5,209
-1,125 -5,869
1,555
38.4
35.1
29.8
-1,808 -10,850
3,596
-244.8 -610.3
-59.5
-1,808 -10,850
3,655
-244.8 -610.3
-61.7
(INR Million)
Var.
VsEst
4.6%
-129.8%
-115.1%
-113.8%
-113.8%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
MotilalOswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 6129 1543