Britannia Industries
BSE SENSEX
31,159
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,625
BRIT IN
120.0
410.1/6.1
3796/2524
-10/-4/8
597
49.3
30 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR3,419 TP: INR4,050(+18%)
Sales broadly in-line; margins far better than expectations
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
89.6 101.5 118.7
Net Sales
11.9
13.2
16.4
EBITDA
8.8
9.8
12.2
PAT
73.7
82.1 101.3
EPS (INR)
7.3
11.4
23.4
Gr. (%)
224.7 242.0 302.1
BV/Sh (INR)
36.9
35.2
37.2
RoE (%)
31.1
29.2
31.5
RoCE (%)
46.4
41.7
33.7
P/E (x)
15.2
14.1
11.3
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
BRIT’s consol. sales grew 5.2% YoY
(est. of +7%) in 4QFY17. Standalone sales
rose 6.6% YoY, but subsidiary sales fell 11% YoY, likely due to weak
performance in the Middle East. Biscuits volume growth was 2% (est. of +3%),
but this was on a base of 10% growth in 4QFY16. EBITDA grew 6.1% YoY (est. of
-4.2%) to INR3.1b. Adj. PAT grew 5.9% YoY (est. of -3.3%) to INR2.1b.
Consol. gross margin contracted 160bp YoY
(est. of -260bp) to 38% due to
commodity cost inflation. There was a decrease in other expenses by 170bp
YoY to 20.3% and in staff costs by 10bp YoY. Consol. EBITDA margin thus
expanded 10bp to 13.7% (est. of 11.4%) in 4QFY17.
Standalone performance:
Sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT grew 6.6%, 7.2% and
2.5% YoY, respectively, in 4QFY17. Gross margin of 37.8% contracted 150bp
YoY, while operating margin of 13.7% expanded 10bp YoY.
FY17 performance:
Consolidated sales grew 7.5% YoY to INR89.8b. PAT rose
7.3% YoY to INR8.8b. Gross margin shrunk 220bp YoY, but EBITDA margin
contraction was restricted to 60bp to 13.3%.
Concall highlights:
(1) Cost savings were INR1.55b in FY17. For FY18, cost
savings are likely to be 40% higher than FY17. (2) Direct reach increase of 2x in
three years to 1.55m outlets is aiding consistent market share growth.
Valuation and view:
We are enthused with the consistent healthy performance
in a difficult operating environment. With continuing investments in R&D, own
manufacturing facilities and potential strategic tie-ups (leveraging on its
consistently improving distribution and marketing skills), we are positive on the
company finding additional levers of growth. We retain
Buy
with a target price
of INR4,050 (40x FY19 EPS, 15% premium to three-year average).
(INR Million)
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Base business volume growth (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
COGS
Gross Profit
Ma rgi ns (%)
Other Opera ti ng Exp
% of Sa l es
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
YoY Growth (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adjusted PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
1Q
9.0
19,411
11,587
7,824
40.3
5,102
26.3
2,722
14.0
274
7
401
2,842
906
31.9
1,936
FY16
2Q
3Q
11.0
13.0
21,277 21,444
12,717
8,560
40.2
5,492
25.8
3,068
14.4
272
15
506
3,287
1,076
32.7
2,211
12,945
8,499
39.6
5,554
25.9
2,945
13.7
281
12
481
3,134
1,027
32.8
2,107
4Q
10.0
21,337
12,878
8,459
39.6
5,557
26.0
2,903
13.6
308
15
362
2,942
952
32.4
1,990
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
10.0
21,063
8.5
12,879
8,184
38.9
5,367
25.5
2,817
13.4
3.5
279
15
739
3,263
1,071
32.8
2,192
13.2
FY17
2Q
3Q
10.0
2.0
23,612 22,648
11.0
5.6
14,902 14,190
8,709
8,458
36.9
37.3
5,578
5,504
23.6
24.3
3,131
2,954
13.3
13.0
2.0
0.3
289
303
15
11
670
561
3,496
3,201
1,156
997
33.1
31.1
2,340
2,204
5.8
4.6
4Q
2.0
22,444
5.2
13,915
8,528
38.0
5,448
24.3
3,081
13.7
6.1
322
13
335
3,081
973
31.6
2,108
5.9
FY16
10.8
83,470
50,127
33,343
39.9
21,705
26.0
11,638
13.9
1,134
49
1,750
12,205
3,961
32.5
8,244
FY17
6.0
89,766
7.5
55,887
33,879
37.7
21,897
24.4
11,983
13.3
-4.3
1,193
55
2,305
13,040
4,197
32.2
8,843
7.3
FY17 Variance
4QE
(%)
3.0
22,657
(0.9)
7.3
14,410
8,247
3.4
36.4
5,673
25.0
2,575
19.7
11.4
-4.2
318
15
552
2,794
10.3
870
31.1
1,924
9.5
-3.3
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261