United Spirits
BSE SENSEX
31,191
S&P CNX
9,637
6 June 2017
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
CMP: INR2,429
TP: INR2,415 (-1%)
Neutral
Longer-term opportunity intact
However, significant challenges on the horizon, too; maintain Neutral
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INRm)/Vol m
Free float (%)
We attended UNSP’s analyst meet. Our key takeaways:
UNSP IN
145.3
2703 / 1775
24/7/-18
353.0
5.1
944
41.5
n
n
n
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E
Net Sales
85.5
93.4
EBITDA
9.8
11.8
PAT
3.9
5.4
EPS (INR)
26.7
37.4
Gr. (%)
87.1
39.7
BV/Sh .INR
133.4 193.7
RoE (%)
21.3
19.3
RoCE (%)
11.8
13.8
P/E (x)
90.9
65.0
P/BV (x)
18.2
12.5
n
2019E
107.8
14.4
7.5
51.8
38.7
263.0
19.7
15.7
46.9
9.2
n
n
The management reiterated its target of double-digit sales growth over the next five
years and continued premiumization-led margin improvement to mid-to-high teens.
It expects the ban on the sale of alcoholic beverages along highways to impact sales
for 2-3 quarters, and the implementation of GST to impact EBITDA. It did not share
the quantum of the possible impact.
Receivables have increased in FY17 and are likely to increase in FY18, as well. Some
of the impact would get mitigated by higher franchising in the popular segment. Over
the longer term, the management expects working capital to be stable.
Of the 155bp gross margin improvement in FY17, 90bp was led by price increases
that UNSP was able to obtain, including in its largest state, Karnataka. This may not
be replicable in FY18.
UNSP has guided slower monetization of non-core assets, now likely over a 3-4 year
horizon, as assets up for sale include residential plots, industrial assets, and litigated
property and shares.
We maintain our Neutral rating, with a DCF-based target price of INR2,415.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
58.5
58.5
58.5
DII
5.5
5.0
5.3
FII
22.1
22.5
23.8
Others
14.0
13.9
12.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
United Spirits
Sensex - Rebased
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Sizable macro opportunity
The management believes that the macro opportunity in India is sizable, especially
in spirits, which constitute ~70% of the alcoholic beverages market. The
demographics are favorable – two-third of India’s population is younger than 35
years and half its population is below 25 years of age. 180m people are likely to
enter the legal drinking age in the next 10 years. The newer generation is willing to
spend more and alcohol consumption is increasingly gaining acceptability. UNSP
does not intend to enter the beer category in India – globally, Diageo is a spirits
company.
Premiumization trend to continue
UNSP expects the ongoing premiumization trend to continue. While it expects the
Popular segment to grow at a CAGR of 3% over the next five years, it expects the
Prestige segment to grow at a CAGR of 12% and the Premium segment to grow at a
CAGR of 14%. The contribution of the Prestige and above segments to UNSP’s
profit pool is likely to increase from the current 60% to 70% by 2021.
Two big disruptions in FY18 – GST, ban on sale of alcohol along highways
The ban on sale of alcoholic beverages along highways and GST implementation
are likely to impact UNSP’s performance in FY18. On the former, the company is (a)
attempting to mitigate the impact by mapping out stores into which the demand
will move, and is (b) working with state governments on faster store relocation.
While it is relatively easy to relocate alcohol vending outlets, it is more
cumbersome to move restaurants. UNSP expects 2-3 quarters of impact on sales as
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261