19 June 2017
Market snapshot
Close
Chg .%
Equities - India
Sensex
31,056
-0.1
Nifty-50
9,588
0.1
Nifty-M 100
18,003
0.1
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,433
0.0
Nasdaq
6,152
-0.2
FTSE 100
7,469
0.7
DAX
12,729
0.3
Hang Seng
10,385
0.4
Nikkei 225
19,943
-0.6
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
47
1.2
Gold ($/OZ)
1,256
0.2
Cu (US$/MT)
5,639
0.0
Almn (US$/MT)
1,856
-0.3
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.4
-0.2
USD/EUR
1.1
0.3
USD/JPY
111.3
0.3
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
6.5
0.0
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.5
0.0
Flows (USD b)
16-Jun
MTD
FIIs
-0.1
0.3
DIIs
0.1
0.5
Volumes (INRb)
16-Jun
MTD*
Cash
318
266
F&O
2,862
4,409
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
16.6
17.1
25.4
YTD.%
8.7
14.3
4.6
10.9
10.5
4.3
YTD.%
-15.9
9.0
2.1
8.9
YTD.%
-5.1
6.3
-4.9
YTDchg
0.0
0.0
YTD
8.2
2.8
YTD*
286
4,759
Today’s top research idea
Petronet LNG: For the long haul; Volume growth to continue
for a long time
v
PLNG has witnessed ~6% volume CAGR over FY12-17, its volumes grew 25% in
FY17, aided by favorable LNG prices and Dahej expansion. To better capture
sporadic increases in offtake, as PLNG expands its Dahej facility and ramps up
Kochi utilization, we believe a 3-5 year view on its prospects is desirable.
v
We expect a volume CAGR of 10% over the next three years (FY17-20E) for
PLNG. Low LNG prices along with lack of domestic gas availability and huge
unmet demand is likely to result in sustained volume growth for PLNG for a
long time to come.
v
Additional factors contributing to our Buy recommendation: (1) lack of
competition, (2) Dahej being the most economical facility, (3) firm contracts at
Dahej and Kochi, and (4) expansion of gas pipeline network across India.
v
Assuming 3% terminal growth and WACC of 11%, we arrive at a one-year
target price of INR546 (upside of 23%) and a three-year price target of INR767.
Maintain
Buy.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Petronet LNG
EcoScope
Cement
Aviation Monthly
Key Highlights
For the long haul; Volume growth to continue for a long time
CAD narrows to 0.7% of GDP in FY17
Price correction across most regions in May/June
Domestic passenger growth for May 2017 at 17.6% YoY
Piping hot news
GST Council meet clears 5 set of rules, defers e-way bill rule, relaxes
deadline for filing returns
palatable specifying a sunset clause of two years even as it relaxed the
deadline for filing returns under the goods and services tax (GST) till
September.
v
The GST Council on Sunday made the dreaded anti-profiteering clause more
Quote of the day
Goals in writing are dreams with
deadlines
Current account deficit narrows to 0.6% of GDP in 4QFY17
Chart of the Day: EcoScope – CAD narrows to 0.6% of GDP in 4QFY17; Gross domestic
savings fall to 13-year low
Domestic savings fell further in 4QFY17
# Implied savings; Does not include ‘errors & omissions’
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.