1
Pidilite Industries
BSE SENSEX
32,382
S&P CNX
10,021
26 July 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR805
TP: INR810 (+1%)
Neutral
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Results below expectation; expect normalcy from 3QFY18
PIDI’s 1QFY18 results came in below expectations.
Gross sales were down
1.3% YoY to INR16.7b. Net sales declined 2.6% YoY (est. of flat growth) to
INR15.3b, with flattish volume growth (est. of flat growth) in the Consumer
Bazaar segment. EBITDA was down 18.5% YoY (est. of -4% YoY) to INR3.2b,
while adj. PAT declined 16.7% YoY (est. of -6.1%) to INR2.3b.
Gross margin contracted 60bp YoY to 51.7%,
led by uptrend in key raw
material costs. Staff costs increased 150bp YoY to 11.8%. Other expenses were
up 200bp YoY to 18.9%, led by 39.6% increase in adspend due to timing
difference between advertisement and promotion spends compared to
1QFY17. EBITDA margin thus contracted 410bp YoY (est. of -150bp YoY) to 21%.
Consolidated segmental performance:
Consumer Bazaar revenues were down
1.6% YoY to INR14.3b. Segmental EBIT margin shrunk sharply by 390bp YoY to
23.0%. Consumer Bazaar EBIT declined 15.7% to INR3.3b. Industrial segment
was flat at INR2.5b, with margin contraction of 360bp to 14.7%.
Concall highlights:
1) No significant schemes launched in 1QFY18 to push stock.
Provided certain amount of money to channel partners for loss on stock due to
GST transition; accounted fully in other expenses in 1QFY18. 2) Company had
taken price hikes in segments that were affected more by RM inflation; no
price hikes taken in bigger products like Fevicol and Fevikwik. 3) Company sees
reasonable pick-up in demand after 1
st
week of July.
Valuation and view:
We cut our EPS numbers by 2%/3% for FY18/FY19 to build
in the miss on revenue and margins. PIDI offers a high-quality discretionary
play with strong competitive positioning, proven in-market excellence, and an
impeccable track record of generating long-term shareholder value over
multiple periods. While we admire the business franchise and long-term
growth prospects, fair valuations at 39x FY19E EPS lead us to maintain our
Neutral
rating with a revised target price of INR810 (INR835 earlier, 38x FY19E
EPS, 5% premium to three-year average).
(INR Million)
4Q
12,954
4.9
10,375
2,579
19.9
296
48
286
2,520
971
38.5
1,549
-7.5
12.0
1Q
15,289
-2.6
12,079
3,210
21.0
313
37
432
3,292
1,033
31.4
2,260
-16.7
14.8
FY18
2QE
3QE
15,594 16,146
10.0
21.0
12,015 12,516
3,579
3,629
23.0
22.5
318
316
26
30
275
272
3,510
3,556
1,088
1,102
31.0
31.0
2,422
2,454
4.9
21.5
15.5
15.2
FY17
4QE
15,384
18.8
12,250
3,134
20.4
318
34
279
3,061
937
30.6
2,124
37.1
13.8
56,168
4.8
43,570
12,598
22.4
1,151
139
1,123
12,430
3,851
31.0
8,579
6.7
15.3
FY18E
62,414
11.1
48,861
13,552
21.7
1,264
127
1,259
13,419
4,160
31.0
9,259
7.9
14.8
FY18
1QE
16,008
2.0
12,226
3,782
23.6
270
32
193
3,672
1,120
30.5
2,552
-6.1
15.9
Var.
(%)
-4.5
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg. Val, INR m/Vol m
Free float (%)
PIDI IN
512.7
427.6 / 6.6
837 / 569
-7/0/-5
385
30.4
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
56.2
62.4
72.4
EBITDA
12.6
13.6
15.5
PAT
8.6
9.3
10.6
EPS (INR)
16.7
18.1
20.6
Gr. (%)
6.7
7.9
14.0
BV/Sh (INR)
64.5
79.0
96.1
RoE (%)
28.2
25.2
23.5
RoCE (%)
26.8
24.1
22.7
P/E (x)
48.1
44.6
39.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
32.0
29.4
25.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Consolidated - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Tota l Expendi ture
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
15,694
6.8
11,754
3,939
25.1
258
35
241
3,887
1,174
30.2
2,713
16.3
17.3
FY17
2Q
3Q
14,177 13,344
7.5
-0.3
10,951 10,477
3,225
2,866
22.8
21.5
303
295
26
30
324
272
3,209
2,814
912
793
28.4
28.2
2,309
2,020
12.4
1.5
16.3
15.1
-15.1
-10.4
-11.5
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy - Research analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya - Research analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261