28 July 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
Biocon
Sell
BSE SENSEX
32,310
S&P CNX
10,015
CMP: INR390
TP: INR330(-15%)
Motilal Oswal values your support in
the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017 for
India Research, Sales and Trading
team. We
request your ballot.
Malaysian plant commercialization impacts profits
Biocon (BIOS) reported weak 1QFY18 results. Revenue declined 5% YoY to
INR9.3b (est. of INR10b), mainly due to weak performance in the Small
molecules (-17% YoY) and Branded formulations (-13% YoY) segments. With
commercialization of the Malaysian plant, operational expense and fixed cost
(depreciation and interest cost) increased ~USD12m, leading to a 27% YoY
decline in EBITDA to INR1.9b (est. of INR2.3b). Margin for the quarter came in
at 20.6% (-530bp YoY), with employee expenses up ~400bp YoY (as % of sales).
Branded business impacted by GST; Syngene showing signs of recovery:
Small
molecules sales declined 17% YoY due to pricing pressure. Branded
formulations sales fell 13% YoY due to destocking in trade channels ahead of
GST implementation. BIOS, however, expects growth to bounce back in 2Q. The
company has guided for mid-to-high-teens growth in India business in the
coming quarters. Biologics business grew 15% YoY in 1Q. Syngene business
(~29% of revenue) grew 6% YoY.
Concall takeaways:
1) Maintained USD200m of revenue guidance from
Biologics in FY19E; substantial portion will come from EMs. 2) Tender business
from the Malaysian plant is worth USD20m annualized (USD5m in 1Q). 3) Peg
Filgrastim TAD is 9
th
Oct. 4) Malaysian facility was inspected by EU regulator in
Mar/Apr-17. Observations were issued, and Biocon has replied to it. 5) Syngene
signed a multi-year agreement with Japanese manufacturer to produce a novel
drug.
Biosimilars pipeline progressing well:
The recent run-up in the stock price is
primarily led by positive developments in the Biosimilars portfolio. Although
the progress is impressive, there are still uncertainties that cap the upside
potential. In the near term, commissioning of the Malaysia plant would exert
pressure on profits. We thus cut our FY18E EPS by 6.7%. However, we have
increased our TP multiple on the back of enhanced visibility of Biologics launch
in the EU and US markets. Maintain
Sell
with a TP of INR330 @ 23x FY19E EPS
(v/s INR300 @ 20x FY19E EPS).
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
BIOS IN
600
234.1 / 3.6
424 / 256
16/-1/27
1082
39.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
40.8
50.6
63.5
EBITDA
11.4
12.2
16.3
PAT
6.0
5.8
8.5
EPS (INR)
10.2
9.7
14.2
Gr. (%)
31.8
-4.8
45.9
BV/Sh (INR)
80.6
87.5
97.5
RoE (%)
12.3
11.1
14.5
RoCE (%)
9.4
8.8
14.9
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
38.2
40.1
27.5
P/BV (x)
4.8
4.5
4.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.5
19.3
14.2
Div. Yield (%)
0.7
0.6
0.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Kumar Saurabh - Research analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya - Research Analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 6129 1552
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.