Torrent Pharmaceuticals
BSE SENSEX
32,515
S&P CNX
10,077
31 July 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR1,317
TP: INR1,350(+3%)
Neutral
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Weak revenue; margins remain stable
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg. Val, INRm
Free float (%)
TRP IN
169
222.8 / 3.5
1768 / 1144
3/-16/-25
389
28.8
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
58.6
63.7
74.5
EBITDA
13.8
14.8
18.3
PAT
9.3
9.0
11.4
EPS (INR)
55.2
53.4
67.3
Gr. (%)
-7.7
-3.2
26.0
BV/Sh (INR)
257.1 291.2 334.2
RoE (%)
23.8
19.5
21.5
RoCE (%)
18.6
15.7
17.0
P/E (x)
23.9
24.7
19.6
P/BV (x)
5.1
4.5
3.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
TRP reported sales of INR13.5b (-11% YoY; >10% below est.). The miss is
attributed to a decline in domestic revenue due to GST roll-out. Despite this,
gross margin stood at 70.3% (up >500bps QoQ), a positive surprise, as India is
the most profitable business. EBITDA margin came in at 22% (+60bp QoQ). R&D
as % of sales stood at 7.5% in 1Q v/s 9.8% in 4QFY17 and 6.0% in 1QFY17.
India biz impacted by GST; pricing pressure continues in US:
India business
declined ~9% YoY due to channel destocking ahead of GST rollout. Secondary
sales remained strong (at mid-teens). The company expects India business to
grow in double-digits, led by strategic initiatives undertaken since 2QFY16.
US
business
remained largely flat QoQ at INR2.7b due to continued pricing
pressure in base business, offset by recent launches, including gCelecoxib. We
expect this business to remain under pressure in FY18 due to further price
erosion in base business, partially offset by 5-6 new launches in FY18E (~25
pending ANDAs). TRP is also focusing on in-licensing of products in the US.
Earnings call takeaways:
1) Plans to file 15-16 ANDAs in FY18. 2) Pricing pressure
in US in 1QFY18. 3) Tax rate guidance of 21-22% in FY18. 4) Dahej- formulations
facility inspected in Jun-17, and received five 483 observations. 5) Renvela
launch deferred for more than a year. 6) Tax rate to stay at ~20% in FY18. 7)
According to AIOCD, secondary sales of Novartis brand acquired were ~INR31cr
(annualized at June-end). 8) Local currency growth in Germany was ~12% YoY
(~8% YoY in reported terms). 9) Capex guidance of INR4b in FY18 and FY19.
Upside potential capped; downgrading to Neutral:
Although TRP remains one
of the better plays on India’s growth story (because of chronic heavy portfolio
and one of the best margins), challenges in the US business will keep growth
and margins under check in the near term. We downgrade the stock to
Neutral
due to limited upside at current valuations. Our TP is INR1,350@20x FY19E PER
(v/s INR1,450 @ 20x FY19E EPS). We cut FY18E/19E EPS by ~6% as we build in
the impact of higher pricing pressure in the US and lower EBITDA margin.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Kumar Saurabh-Research analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya-Research analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@MotilalOswal.com );