8 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Cement
Dalmia Bharat
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,014
S&P CNX
9,979
CMP: INR2,638 TP:INR3,282 (+24%)
Strong beat led by realization improvement
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Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
DBEL IN
88.8
235.6 / 3.5
2780/1186
0/25/69
326
42.0
2019E
96.0
24.5
8.0
89.9
31.0
714
13.4
10.8
29.5
3.7
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
74.0
84.8
EBITDA
19.0
21.9
NP
3.4
6.1
Adj EPS (INR)
38.8
68.7
EPS Gr. (%)
81.2
77.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
558
625
RoE (%)
7.2
11.6
RoCE (%)
7.3
9.5
P/E (x)
68.4
38.6
P/BV (x)
4.8
4.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Volume growth led by North East operations:
Cement volume for 1QFY18
grew 6% YoY to 3.99mt (v/s our estimate of 4.04mt), as volume ex-OCL
increased 8% YoY. Pure cement realization increased by INR402/t QoQ
(INR585/t YoY) to INR5,126/t, led by better realization in both East and
South markets as also higher proportion of premium sales. Revenue grew
16% YoY to INR20.59b (v/s our estimate of INR20.33b).
Highest ever EBITDA/t despite cost pressures:
EBITDA/t for 1QFY18 grew
15% QoQ (and 3% YoY) to INR1,395/t, as realization improvement more than
offset the cost push. Unitary cost/t increased by INR175/t QoQ due to higher
power and fuel charges, led by increase in petcoke prices. EBITDA increased
9%YoY to INR5.56b for 1QFY18. Interest cost declined just 12% YoY, as there
were non-cash charges of INR300m pertaining to hedging cost in 1QFY18.
PAT grew 55% YoY to INR1.45b, as tax rate was lower at 31% in 1QFY18 v/s
43% in 1QFY17.
Concall highlights:
(a) Interest cost was higher by INR300m due to non-cash
charges related to hedging cost; (b) Net debt reduced by INR6.4b QoQ, led
by receipt of INR5.25b from KKR stake sale; (c) Petcoke consumption was
75% v/s 78% in 4QFY17.
Valuation
and
view:
We believe the net debt reduction of ~INR7.5b in FY17
will continue into FY19. Net debt to EBITDA will reduce to below 1.5x in
FY19 from 2.8x in FY17. Operating cash flow is likely to see strong
improvement, led by margin improvement on cost efficiency program and
realization improvement by way of higher proportion of premium sales.
OCL-DBL merger synergy benefits could further improve cash flow in FY19.
We expect DBEL’s valuation multiple to catch up with large caps, given
improving balance sheet and earnings CAGR of 52% over FY17-19. We value
DBEL at 12.5x FY20E EV/EBITDA (~20% discount to peers due to ~50%
exposure to southern market) and arrive at a target price of INR3,282.
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
(INR Million)
Y/E March
FY17
FY18
FY17 FY18E
FY18
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2QE
3QE
4QE
1QE Var (%)
Sales Dispatches (m ton)
3.76
3.42
3.56
4.55
3.99
3.76
3.92
4.87 15.29 16.54
4.04
-1
YoY Change (%)
21.7
20.0
20.3
17.3
6.1
10.0
10.0
7.0
19.5
8.2
7.5
Realization (INR/ton)
4,727 4,897 4,886 4,802 5,160 4,902 5,182 5,235 4,843 5,129 5,030
3
YoY Change (%)
-8.7
-1.6
-2.2
-1.4
9.2
0.1
6.1
9.0
-3.3
5.9
7.1
QoQ Change (%)
-3.0
3.6
-0.2
-1.7
7.5
-5.0
5.7
1.0
4.8
Net Sales
17,775 16,747 17,393 21,850 20,589 18,441 20,295 25,487 74,044 84,811 20,333
1
YoY Change (%)
11.1
18.0
17.6
15.6
15.8
10.1
16.7
16.6
15.5
14.5
15.2
EBITDA
5,084 3,902 4,211 5,517 5,566 3,835 4,963 7,571 19,019 21,935 5,036
11
Margins (%)
28.6
23.3
24.2
25.2
27.0
20.8
24.5
29.7
25.7
25.9
24.8
Depreciation
1,338 1,587 1,593 1,509 1,532 1,550 1,550 1,616 6,027 6,248 1,510
Interest
2,412 2,291 2,198 1,998 2,117 1,800 1,750 1,813 8,900 7,480 1,900
Other Income
766 1,102
712
715
700
900
900
100 2,988 2,600
750
PBT after EO Expense
2,100 1,125 1,131 2,863 2,885 1,385 2,563 4,241 7,210 10,807 2,376
Tax
911
662
624
704
889
554 1,025 1,367 2,892 3,782
713
Rate (%)
43.4
58.9
55.1
24.6
30.8
40.0
40.0
32.2
40.1
35.0
30.0
Reported PAT (pre minority)
1,189
463
507 2,159 1,996
831 1,538 2,875 4,318 7,024 1,663
20
Minority + associate
250
152
151
319
357
100
100
360
870
917
100
257
PAT Adj for EO items
940
311
357 1,736 1,454
731 1,438 2,514 3,448 6,107 1,563
-7
YoY Change (%)
78.3 149.8
19.2
83.2
54.7 135.1 302.9
44.9 589.9
77.1
66.3
Abhishek Ghosh
- Research analyst
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Pradnya Ganar - Research analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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