Britannia Industries
BSE SENSEX
31,798
S&P CNX
9,908
9 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR4,061 TP: INR4,660(+15%)
Buy
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Best-of-breed earnings growth visibility commands premium multiples
BRIT’s consolidated sales grew 6% YoY
(est. of +4%) in 1QFY18. Standalone
(S/A) sales increased 6.6% YoY, but subsidiary sales were down 5.9% YoY. We
expect base business volume growth to have come in at ~2%, as against our
estimate of flat volumes. This is on a base of 10% volume growth in 1QFY17.
Consol. gross margin contracted 120bp YoY
(est. of -100bp) to 37.6% due to
commodity cost inflation (at 6% in 1QFY18). EBITDA margin shrunk 40bp YoY to
13% (est. of 12.4%) in 1QFY18. EBITDA grew 2.8% YoY (est. of -3.8%) to
INR2.9b. Higher tax rate at 34.4% (est. 32%) led to adj. PAT decline of 1.5% YoY
(est. of - 2.4%) to INR2.2b.
Concall highlights:
(1)
Cost-efficiency program target is 60% higher than FY17
levels (earlier target: 40%) – 1QFY18 performance was in line toward achieving
this target. Savings were INR1.5m in FY17; INR2.5b of savings in FY18E would
be 2.4% of consol. sales for the year.
(2)
BRIT gained market share in a difficult
quarter from national players and small players. Due to stringent compliance
under GST regime, it expects more market share gain from small players.
(3)
Direct reach is likely to see addition of 0.2-0.25m every year (stood at 1.56m at
end-FY17), which is impressive, especially when compared to peers.
Valuation and view:
We are enthused with the consistent healthy performance
in a difficult operating environment. Rapidly expanding distribution, continuing
R&D investment and significant expansion of its own manufacturing indicate
management’s immense confidence on the growth prospects. Opportunity
beyond biscuits is also substantially high. Continuing premiumization,
significant incremental cost savings and favorable commodity cost outlook
mean that 15% EBITDA margins should be achievable. We maintain
Buy
with a
TP of INR4,660 (42x June 2019E EPS, 15% premium to three-year average due
to improving visibility on volume recovery and margin growth).
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
BRIT IN
120.0
487.1 / 7.6
4215 / 2776
9/13/17
568
49.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
89.6 101.5
Net Sales
11.9
14.2
EBITDA
8.8
10.2
PAT
73.7
85.3
EPS (INR)
7.3
15.8
Gr. (%)
224.7 272.4
BV/Sh (INR)
36.9
34.3
RoE (%)
31.1
29.3
RoCE (%)
55.1
47.6
P/E (x)
40.7
33.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
2019E
119.0
17.5
12.6
104.6
22.6
334.4
34.5
29.7
38.8
27.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.