Kaveri Seed Co.
BSE SENSEX
31,798
S&P CNX
9,908
9 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Others
CMP: INR608
TP: INR738(+21%)
Buy
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Cotton leadership and product diversification to provide holistic growth
Revenue in-line; EBITDA and PAT beat estimates:
KSCL reported overall
revenue of INR5,906m (est. of INR5,829m) in 1QFY18, as against INR4,940m in
1QFY17, marking growth of 19.6%. EBITDA stood at INR2,069m (est. of
INR1,918m), as against INR1,583m in 1QFY17. Margins came in at 35% (est. of
32.9%) v/s 32% in 1QFY17 on account of a significant decline of 360bp in raw
material cost (52% of net sales). Consequently, adj. PAT stood at INR2,024m
(est. of INR1,864), as against INR1,544 in 1QFY17.
Growth reinforced by improved cotton acreage:
1QFY18 witnessed a sharp
increase of 27% in cotton volumes for KSCL, with cotton seeds gaining market
share in Gujarat and Maharashtra. New product contribution too increased
from 7% to 11% in 1QFY18, with the company launching two new cotton
hybrids and two others under demonstration. Although 1QFY18 witnessed
INR192m of inventory write-off primarily driven by cotton inventory, the write-
offs are expected to be lower for FY18 v/s FY17.
Focus on diverse product portfolio:
While the cotton business posted
significant growth, the company’s strategy would be to expand the non-cotton
business as well, which is evident from the rise of more than 40% in selection
rice volumes in 1QFY18 and new product contribution in Bajra increasing from
6% to 17% (in volume terms). The company is also expected to focus on the
north region to strengthen its distribution network.
Valuation and view:
KSCL benefited from better cotton acreages, leading to a
significant rise in cotton seed volumes. Going forward, we believe product
diversification and geographical expansion would lead to reduced dependency
on selective crops and regions, bolstering growth. Therefore, we raise our
earnings estimates for FY18/FY19 by 7%/8%. We value the stock at 18x FY19E
EPS, and maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR738.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
KSCL IN
69
42.0 / 0.7
708 / 325
-5/15/54
396
45.6
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
7.0
8.1
9.3
Net Sales
1.4
2.3
2.7
EBITDA
0.8
2.2
2.7
PAT
19.1
34.0
41.0
EPS (INR)
-21.4
78.6
20.4
Gr. (%)
146.8 139.2 159.8
BV/Sh (INR)
13.6
23.3
27.4
RoE (%)
16.0
25.1
29.6
RoCE (%)
31.9
17.9
14.8
P/E (x)
4.1
4.4
3.8
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Niket Shah – Research Analyst
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1535
Aksh Vashishth – Research Analyst
(Aksh.Vashishth@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1553
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.