12 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
BPCL
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
31,214
S&P CNX
9,711
CMP: INR484
TP: INR515(+6%)
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Adjusted EBITDA above estimate; GRM at USD4.9/bbl
BPCL’s reported EBITDA of INR12b (-70% YoY, -45% QoQ) was lower than our
estimate of INR19b due to product inventory loss of INR7.3b during the
quarter. EBITDA adjusted for product inventory loss stood at INR19.5b,
ahead of our estimate. Reported GRM (inclusive of crude inventory
gain/loss) stood at USD4.9/bbl. The company reported forex gain of
INR292m v/s gain of INR332m in 4QFY17 and loss of INR1.7b in 1QFY17.
Reported PAT stood at INR7.4b (est. of INR11.6b; -72% YoY; -60% QoQ),
partly benefiting from higher other income of INR6.6b (est. of INR5.5b;
+231% YoY, -1% QoQ).
GRM at USD4.9/bbl
was lower than our estimate of USD5.5/bbl. GRM was
USD6/bbl in 4QFY17 and USD6.1/bbl in 1QFY17.
Domestic sales volume grew 3% YoY
(+8% QoQ) to 10mmt in 1QFY18.
Throughput in 1QFY18 was 6.4mmt v/s 6.0mmt in 4QFY17 and 6.2mmt in
1QFY17.
Valuation and view
We value BPCL based on SOTP-based fair value of INR515/share, which
includes INR343/share for its core business and INR171/share for
investments. The stock trades at 11.7x FY19E EPS of INR41.3 and 2.3x FY19E
BV. E&P still accounts for INR92 in our valuation, which has a risk potential
because of ongoing delays in completion of FID at Mozambique and
production in Brazil. Maintain
Neutral.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
BPCL IN
655.6
483.8 / 7.2
770 / 450
-2/-2/31
1730
45.1
2019E
2275.1
135.6
81.3
41.3
-14.5
206.9
21.4
11.7
11.7
2.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017
2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
2012.5 2117.9
EBITDA
135.1
112.5
Adj. PAT
95.1
67.5
EPS (INR)
48.3
34.3
EPS Gr.%
97.8
-16.6
BV/Sh.INR
156.7
179.6
RoE (%)
32.4
20.4
RoCE (%)
16.2
10.9
P/E (x)
10.0
14.1
P/BV (x)
3.1
2.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Swarnendu Bhushan
– Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
– Research Analyst
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309