17 August 2017
Annual Report Update | Sector: Automobiles
Maruti Suzuki
BSE SENSEX
31,771
S&P CNX
9,897
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CMP: INR7,702
TP: INR8,819 (+15%)
Several initiatives to further deepen, build moats
Buy
Hybrids as a step towards full EV, supported by Suzuki’s Li-ion battery JV
MSILs FY17 annual report gives insights on MSILs approach to Electric Vehicle (EV) and
strategic investments in land, apart from update on other strategic initiatives. Also, MSIL
has further increased disclosures on Sustainability, which highlights its holistic approach
to business. Insights from FY17 annual report instills confidence in longevity of growth for
MSIL, as it deepens it existing moats and create new ones by a) further strengthening
distribution network, b) increase dealer viability through strategic investments in land for
dealerships, c) building loyalty as well as control residual value of MSIL used cars through
higher focus on True Value network and d) increase local capabilities in R&D. MSIL has
increased its dividend payout policy, with upper limit for the payout at 40%, higher than
30% earlier. Key highlights from MSIL’s FY17 annual report:
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
MSIL IN
302.1
7920 / 4770
3/16/45
2,326.5
36.3
3653
43.8
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
806.0 953.5 1,100.3
EBITDA
119.2 153.4 177.4
Adj. PAT
83.4 111.3 128.4
Adj. EPS (INR)* 281.7 374.5 431.5
EPS Gr. (%)
13.3
32.9
15.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
1,371 1,620 1,912
RoE (%)
20.1
22.8
22.2
RoCE (%)
28.0
30.8
30.1
P/E (x)
27.3
20.6
17.9
P/CE (x)
20.5
16.0
14.0
*Consolidated.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
Promoter
56.2
56.2
56.2
DII
11.8
12.3
13.6
FII
25.0
24.6
23.6
Others
7.0
7.0
6.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Hybrid vehicles – stepping stone toward electric vehicles:
MSIL will introduce
EVs as soon as it sees signs of readiness at the customer end. In interim, it is
focusing on hybrid technology, and sees it as a step toward electric mobility. Li-
ion battery plant, which is being set-up by JV between Suzuki, Toshiba and
Denso, would help to reduce cost of hybrids and EVs. Also, global alliance with
Toyota would also address future technologies issues.
Strategic investments in land – creating another moat:
It has initiated
strategic investments in land at prominent and upcoming locations for
expansion of sales and service outlets (to improve viability of new & existing
dealership). In FY17, 77 land parcels were identified, which are at various
stages of the commercial and regulatory approval process. In FY18, it is
targeting to acquire 400-500 sites.
Distribution – further strengthening its network:
Based on MSIL’s assessment,
it would require at least 3,500 sales outlets (from ~2,300 as of Mar-17) and
~5,000 workshops (from ~3,300) over the next few years. Along with network
expansion, MSIL is focusing on upgrading the quality of network through better
infrastructure and superior customer experience.
True Value – revamping used-car business to target new first-time car buyers:
MSIL is implementing lessons from the successful NEXA channel to upgrade the
True Value channel. Unlike the past, it is planning to set-up 150 independent
True Value outlets by Mar-18, which will be expanded to 300 outlets in the
next few years. It already has 1,184 True Value outlets (added 177 outlets in
FY17). It sold ~350k used cars in FY17, with plans to sell ~600k by FY20.
Valuations & view:
We remain positive on MSIL, considering a) multi-year
favorable product lifecycle, b) improvement in product mix (increasing share of
premium products) aiding realizations and consequently margins, c) reducing
JPY exposure, d) lower capex intensity, e) improvement in FCF conversion and
f) high FCF generation & sharp improvement in RoIC. We value MSIL at 25x Jun-
19 Core EPS - at 35% premium 5yr/10yr LPA. The stock trades at 27.3x/20.6x
FY18E/19E EPS. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR8,819 (~25x Jun-19 Core EPS +
INR1,383 cash/share). MSIL is one of our top-picks in the Auto sector.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Deep A Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 30784701
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.