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Impact of doubling of minimum wages on India’s manufacturing sector
Traditional labor-intensive industries to be worst hit
24 August 2017
The Economy Observer
The ‘Code on Wages, 2017’ bill was tabled for discussion in the Indian Parliament during the recently concluded monsoon
session. According to various media
articles,
the government is considering doubling of national minimum wage to
INR18,000/month per worker.
In this note, we argue that such revision would hurt the traditional labor-intensive industries significantly, along with
their exportability. Also, higher minimum wages may
further exacerbate
the differential between cost of a unit of labor
and a unit of capital, potentially curtailing labour employment growth and dampening the government’s target to create
100m manufacturing jobs. Finally, it may lead to a ‘reverse/adverse shift’ of jobs from the formal to informal sector.
We estimate that average monthly wage is ~INR14,000/worker in India’s organized manufacturing sector. This means
that an increase to INR18,000/month per worker will cost at least INR47b to the organized manufacturing sector.
An industry-wise analysis reveals that traditional labor-intensive industries such as ‘tobacco products,’ ‘wearing
apparels,’ ‘leather products,’ ‘textiles’ and ‘food products & beverages’ would be worst affected. On the other hand,
some capital-intensive industries would be least affected.
Furthermore, the organized manufacturing sector in Bihar (BH), Telangana (TR), Punjab (PB) and Kerala (KL) would be
worst affected, while Maharashtra would be least hurt.
The Indian government introduced ‘the Code on Wages, 2017’
bill
in the Parliament
on 10 August 2017 with an intention to combine and simplify the relevant provisions
of the following four central labor enactments relating to wages: the Payment of
Wages Act, 1936; the Minimum Wages Act, 1948; the Payment of Bonus Act, 1965;
and the Equal Remuneration Act, 1976.
While these intentions are admirable, several
media reports
suggest that the
government is considering to double minimum wage to INR18,000/month per
worker. Using data from Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), the most comprehensive
annual database on India’s organized manufacturing sector, we measure the impact
of doubling of minimum wages and make five key conclusions:
1. Traditional labor-intensive industries such as ‘tobacco products,’ ‘wearing
apparels,’ ‘leather products,’ ‘textiles’ and ‘food products & beverages’ would
be worst affected, as the average wages are very low in these industries.
2. The organized manufacturing sector in Bihar (BH), Telangana (TR), Punjab (PB)
and Kerala (KL) would be worst affected, while Maharashtra would be least hurt.
3. Doubling of minimum wages would
further exacerbate
the differential between
cost of a unit of labor and a unit of capital. It could potentially restrict
employment growth in the manufacturing sector and hurt the government’s
plan to create 100m manufacturing jobs by 2022.
4. Moreover, expensive labor will hurt labor-intensive, export-oriented sectors
such as textiles, which account for more than 15% of total merchandise exports.
5. Finally, the move may lead to a ‘reverse/adverse shift’ as jobs could shift from
the organized to unorganized sector – in complete contrast to the government’s
intention and need of the hour.
Doubling of minimum
wages would further
exacerbate the differential
between cost of a unit of
labor and a unit of capital. It
could potentially restrict
employment growth in the
manufacturing sector and
hurt the government’s plan
to create 100m
manufacturing jobs by 2022
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Rahul Agrawal
– Research analyst
(Rahul.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
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