Sector Update | 4 September 2017
Automobiles
Scooterization wave to intensify
Penetration of scooters to improve gradually in the rural markets
We met Mr Yadvinder Singh Guleria, Senior Vice President (Sales & Marketing), of
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (HMSI). He expects scooterization in the Indian
2W space to continue, going forward – the share of scooters is likely to increase to
~40% of the overall 2W market in the next 2-3 years (from 33.7% in YTD FY18),
overtaking entry-level motorcycles to become the single-largest segment. He
mentioned that the pace of scooter penetration in the rural markets has been
slower than expected at the moment, but should increase gradually, led by an
improvement in road infrastructure. Deeper rural penetration is the next focus
area, with HMSI aiming to take scooterization beyond urban areas with the launch
of the rural-focused ‘Cliq’. The company is expected to be the biggest beneficiary
of the upcoming CBS norms (up to 125cc) due to its technological edge and tried-
and-tested models.
Scooterization to continue, more scope for further penetration
HMSI sounded optimistic on scooter demand, expecting the share of scooters in 2Ws
to continue increasing to ~40% over the next 2-3 years. Increasing acceptance of
scooters as a family product, easy ride/comfort, improving road infrastructure and e-
commerce continue driving sales in the urban/semi urban areas. There is a gradual
increase in the acceptance of scooters in the rural markets with an improvement in
road conditions. India is likely to follow trends of ASEAN markets, where the share of
scooters in the sales mix is as high as 75%. Markets like Indonesia/Vietnam/Thailand
almost run on scooter, and India could see similar penetration over the long term.
“With
better road infrastructure,
co-usage in a family and more
women entering the work-force,
the primary requirement of riders
in Tamil Nadu has evolved from the
mileage and price conscious 110cc
motorcycles to the more
convenient and unisex automatic
scooters.
Now nearly every 2nd customer
chooses to ride home on a scooter
with mopeds witnessing a sharp
decline. CLIQ is developed for the
up-country customers with a
progressive mindset, and is a true
disruptor in the 100-110cc
segment. CLIQ challenges the
traditional preferences with its
perfect blend of Practicality,
Versatility and Value for money.
”
YS Guleria,
Sr. VP, Sales and Marketing
HMSI, at a launch of Cliq in
Tamil Nadu
Scooters to be single-largest segment, overtaking entry-level motorcycles
HMSI expect scooters to grow to become the single-largest segment in domestic
2Ws, overtaking entry-level 100cc motorcycles over the next 2-3 years. HMSI
believes that there is still enough room for scooters to grow even in markets where
penetration is ~50%. Improving road infrastructure in rural areas and the declining
price gap with the launch of
Cliq
are expected to drive scooter demand in the rural
markets. This, along with the launch of suitable products (with aesthetics and
utilities like motorcycles), should help HMSI lead scooterization in the rural markets.
Cliq scooter targeted to compete against entry-level motorcycles/mopeds
With the launch of 110cc scooter – Cliq – priced at INR44.5k (ex-showroom Chennai
v/s Activa 4G variant priced at INR53.7k), HMSI aims to compete against 100cc entry-
level motorcycles (Hero HF Delux priced at ~INR45.5k ex-showroom Chennai) and
mopeds (XL100 priced at INR31.6k ex-showroom Chennai). It is targeted at the rural
market, with utility and ease of use in mind. It has motorcycle-like features such as
block pattern, off-road, on-road tyres, and optional luggage carrier/footboard
mounted luggage box for load. It shares the same platform as Activa.
Jinesh Gandhi – Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah – Research Analyst
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
8 August 2016
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Automobiles
Cliq – good response in Rajasthan, expect pan-India launch by Sep-17
HMSI first launched Cliq in Rajasthan, followed by Maharashtra and recently in Tamil
Nadu. The initial response to the product from Rajasthan has been encouraging.
HMSI is targeting thematic-style marketing strategies to attract customers. The
product is expected to be available on pan-India basis by September 2017.
Premiumization of scooters to evolve gradually
According to HMSI, the market for higher-CC scooters should evolve gradually. The
buyers of Activa 125 are largely upgraders from the 110cc scooters segment or from
entry-level motorcycles. However, management believes that the 110cc segment
should continue to be the single-largest segment over the medium term.
No intention of electric scooter launch in near future
HMSI believes that the trend of electric scooters (demand for which is quite high in
other scooter-dominated matured markets) is a distant dream for the Indian
markets. Price, load carrying capacity of battery operated vehicles and charging
infrastructure are the biggest hindrance in the adoption of electric scooters.
Expect slowdown in 2W industry post BS-VI; probable disruptions seen
According to management, due to a meaningful increase in product prices due to BS-
VI emission norms and transitory issues, 2W industry volume should decline in FY21.
It also expects disruption within segments (as buyers of 150cc may opt for 125cc
vehicle due to cost difference) and manufacturers, as technology and price
competitiveness will be the sole deciding factors of success.
HMSI to be largest beneficiary of regulatory changes in motorcycles
According to management, HMSI is expected to be the single largest beneficiary of
the upcoming mandatory CBS norms for 2Ws with engine capacity up to 125cc (likely
to be effective from April 2018), as ~20% of motorcycles sold by HMSI are fitted with
CBS. HMSI has a market share of 16.4% in YTD FY18 (v/s 14.6% in the year-ago
period) in the motorcycle segment. BS-VI norms from 2020 will open up global
markets for HMSI, as 93% of the world’s 2W market (including India) will be
following similar emission standards by then.
Other highlights
Expects to sell 6m units in FY18 v/s 4.7m units sold in FY17.
Contribution of government employees in total sales remains at ~2%.
Sri Lanka, Nepal, Columbia, Bangladesh and Mexico are HMSI’s biggest exports
markets.
Navi
selling well in the Guatemala, Honduras, Ecuador, Sri Lankan
markets.
Dio
is the largest selling scooter brand in Sri Lanka.
See no cannibalization of
Cliq
with existing set of scooters.
CLIQ comes
equipped with Combi Brake System (CBS) and Equalizer
technology
(as per government regulations, CBS will be mandatory on all 2Ws up to 125cc
engine capacity from 1 April 2018).
Least delinquency of loans is by HMSI customers, leading to better negotiation
on the finance rate.
Not expecting to launch motorcycle in the leisure segment in near future. Focus
would largely remain on scooters and motorcycles up to 250cc.
2
4 September 2017

Automobiles
HMSI enjoys better margins on scooters v/s other segments.
Have network of 5,440 touch points as on date; plans to add another 360 touch
points in remaining FY18, largely in rural areas.
Current production capacity of 6.4m units per annum.
Valuation and view
While we expect 2W volumes to benefit from a rural recovery in the near term,
competitive intensity remains high in the segment due to changing customer
preferences. In the 2W space, we like EIM and BJAUT.
Our top picks in the auto
segment are Tata Motors, MSIL and Amara Raja.
We also consider MM as the best
bet on a rural market recovery.
4 September 2017
3

Automobiles
Story in Charts
Exhibit 1: Scooters reaching recent historical growth levels
Scooter share in dom. 2W vols. (%)
23.2
14.2
25.1
18.2
11.7
11.3
Growth (%)
18.2
6.6
-13.0
Exhibit 2: Scooters outperforming other segments
YTD FY18 growth (%)
21.2
FY13
24.3
FY14
28.2
FY15
30.6
FY16
31.9
FY17
33.7
FY18YTD
Source: SIAM
Scooters
Motorcycles
Mopeds
Source: SIAM
Exhibit 3: Scooters winning motorcycles volumes
Motorcycles
6
20
6
21
5
24
Scooters
5
28
4
31
Mopeds
5
32
4
34
Exhibit 4: HMSI’s share in scooter segment increasing
HMSI
5
11
5
HMCL
11
2
5
13
19
TVS
8
Yamaha
2
6
5
15
17
Suzuki
5
4
4
15
16
Others
5
4
5
15
14
0
19
2
15
16
74
73
71
67
65
63
62
48
19
49
53
56
55
57
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17 FY18 YTD
Source: SIAM
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Source: SIAM
Exhibit 5: Scooter share higher in West and South in FY17
Motorcycles
69.8
74.1
Scooters
63.8
51.1
27.1
3.1
North
East
33.8
21.7
4.2
West
2.4
South
Source: SIAM
9.8
39.1
Mopeds
Exhibit 6: States with higher share of motorcycles (FY17)
88.1
Share of motorcycles in 2W (%)
78.2
76.5
74.8
73.8
Bihar
UP
Rajasthan
WB
MP
Source: SIAM
4 September 2017
4

Automobiles
Exhibit 7: HMSI overall 2W industry market share improving
led by scooters (%)
8
13
19
18
43
HMCL
9
12
24
14
41
FY14
Bajaj
9
13
27
11
40
FY15
HMSI
10
13
26
12
39
FY16
TVS
11
14
27
11
37
FY17
Others
11
13
30
9
37
FY18 YTD
Source: SIAM
12%
Exhibit 8: HMSI recovering market share in motorcycle
segment
16%
HMSI MS market share
16%
16%
14%
14%
FY13
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18 YTD
Source: SIAM
Exhibit 9: Comparative
valuations
CMP
INR
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja Batt.
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
2,808
3,998
604
1,345
7,703
377
107
31,404
1,127
197
778
22,031
994
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Rating
TP
(INR)
3,281
3,818
612
1,617
8,819
542
118
35,854
1,353
269
986
21,994
1,059
P/E (x)
FY18E
20.5
21.1
41.9
19.6
27.3
16.8
20.7
36.8
30.9
21.4
27.6
40.3
33.9
FY19E
17.2
20.1
25.5
16.3
20.6
6.3
15.4
28.7
22.3
17.9
20.5
31.2
26.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY18E
14.7
13.7
26.8
14.1
17.2
4.3
10.4
28.3
17.2
13.3
15.1
25.1
16.1
FY19E
12.1
13.1
17.1
11.9
13.4
2.5
7.9
24.4
13.6
11.2
11.1
19.6
13.4
RoE (%)
FY18E
22.2
34.6
25.7
13.9
20.1
12.3
23.2
37.0
19.2
14.1
17.3
18.0
21.6
FY19E
24.0
31.5
33.6
14.9
22.8
26.6
27.0
35.4
22.8
15.0
19.9
20.7
23.3
Div Yld (%)
FY18E
2.3
2.3
0.5
1.5
1.1
0.1
1.9
0.5
0.8
1.1
0.6
0.8
0.4
FY19E
2.8
2.3
0.7
1.5
1.3
0.1
2.1
0.6
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.1
0.7
EPS
CAGR (%)
FY17-19E
11.2
8.5
42.1
23.2
22.7
73.7
23.7
33.6
39.0
16.3
16.4
22.1
27.1
4 September 2017
5

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Automobiles
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4 September 2017
6