27 September 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
31,600
-0.1
Nifty-50
9,872
0.0
Nifty-M 100
18,260
0.6
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,497
0.0
Nasdaq
6,380
0.2
FTSE 100
7,286
-0.2
DAX
12,605
0.1
Hang Seng
10,968
0.5
Nikkei 225
20,330
-0.3
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
58
-1.5
Gold ($/OZ)
1,294
-1.3
Cu (US$/MT)
6,353
-0.8
Almn (US$/MT)
2,101
-1.1
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
65.5
0.5
USD/EUR
1.2
-0.5
USD/JPY
112.3
0.6
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
6.7
0.1
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.6
0.0
Flows (USD b)
26-Sep
MTD
FIIs
-0.3
-1.1
DIIs
0.2
2.1
Volumes (INRb)
26-Sep
MTD*
Cash
305
322
F&O
7,369
5,852
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
18.7
20.6
27.2
YTD.%
11.5
18.5
2.0
9.8
16.7
6.4
YTD.%
4.6
12.3
15.0
23.3
YTD.%
-3.6
12.0
-4.0
YTDchg
0.2
0.0
YTD
5.8
8.6
YTD*
293
5,347
Today’s top research theme
India Strategy: Nifty reconstitution, Marginal FY19E EPS downgrade;
Weight of Private Financials to increase; PSU Banks to hit new low
The NSE Nifty-50 composition is all set for a reshuffle on Friday, 29th September
2017. Key observations:
Bajaj Finance will be included in the benchmark with 1% weight, taking NBFC’s
weight to 9.5% (+90bp).
HPCL will enter with 0.9% weight, helping Oil & Gas to cement its position in the
benchmark. This is first time in the history of the benchmark when all three
OMCs will be part of the index. UPL will enter the index with 0.8% weight.
With the exit of Bank of Baroda (weight: 0.4%), PSU Banks’ weight will be at
an all-time low of 2.5%. Other losers include Utilities (-40bp), Cement (-40bp),
Automobile (-40bp) and Private Banks (-30bp).
Aggregate weight of the existing 47 Nifty-50 stocks will decline by 120bp. Top-
5 stocks to be most impacted (in terms of weight) by the reshuffle: HDFC Bank
(-12bp), HDFC (-9bp), Reliance Ind (-9 bp), ITC (-8bp) and ICICI Bank (-6bp).
Post this reshuffle, BFSI will have an index weight of 35.8% (+30bp), almost
equivalent to the combined weights of Oil, Technology and Auto.
Nifty EPS for FY18 will see marginal upgrade of 0.2%. It will, however, see a
downgrade of 0.4% for FY19, primarily due to a higher increase in free float
market cap of 1.6% compared to a rise of 1.8%/1.1% in free float PAT for
FY18/FY19.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
India Strategy
Media
Key Highlights
Nifty reconstitution; Marginal FY19E EPS downgrade
GST/demon impact waning, expect festive season boost
Piping hot news
ADB lowers India growth forecast for this fiscal, next
The Asian Development Bank has lowered India’s growth forecast to 7 per
cent for 2017-18 from its earlier estimate of 7.4 per cent owing to weak
private consumption and business investment and muted manufacturing
output.
Chart of the Day: India Strategy – Nifty reconstitution, Weight of NBFC’s and Oil to
increase; PSU Banks to hit new low
NBFCs and Oil & Gas will see an increase in weight
Auto, Utilities, Cement, PSU Banks – biggest losers
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Source: NSE, MOSL
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.